wall street in advance

February 2019  Economic Statistics
and Other Economic Influences

                Weekly Chain Store Sales*
                 Average Hourly Earnings*
                 API Weekly Gas/Oil Stockpiles Report*  **
Mortgage Applications  Data
                 EIA Weekly Report on Gas & Oil Stockpiles* (10a.m.)
                 Weekly Unemployment Report*
                  Weekly Mutual Fund Flows*
                   Natural Gas Storage Levels* (a.m.)

 *Except Holidays    ** As of 1/09         All Dates Subject to Change:
Sun.          Jan 27     OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
        BoJ Minutes of its Dec. 19--20, 2018 Meeting
        Riksbank Dpty Gov af Jochnick speaks on forthcoming normalization of monetary policy
, how households & the economy will be impacted when the repo rate is increased and the bank reduces its Gov't bond holdings (Stockholm)
         German Dec Retail Sales
          Japan Dec Corporate Service Prices
          Hong Kong Dec Trade Balance
          Eurozone Dec Private Sector Loans
          UK Jan Nationwide House Price Index
          China Dec Industrial Profits

          Brazil Dec Current Account, Foreign Direct Investment
Monday,   Jan 28 Chicago Fed National Activity Index  (8:30am et)
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $42B 3-, &  $39B 6-month Bills (11am et)
US Treasury Auctions $40B 2-year & $41B 5-year Note (1pm et)
Australia holiday
     OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
          New Zeland Dec Trade Balance
          Aussie NAB Dec Business Conditions/Confidence
         Swiss Dec Imports/Exports/Watch Exports/Trade Balance
          Spain 18Q4 Unemployment Rate
          Italian PPI
          Brazil Dec Bank Lending
          Paris FinTech Forum with Riksbank Gov Ingves, ECB's Nowotny, IMF's Lagarde +other Central Bankers (to 30th)
          BoE Economist Haldane is panelist at Society of Professional Economists "Women in Economics" Event (London)
Tuesday,   Jan 29 FOMC 2-day Meeting Begins
US Int'l Trade Deficit
US Dec Adv Retail Inventories
US Dec Wholesale Inventories

Redbook weekly store sales shapshot
S&P CoreLogic/Case-Shiller Nov Home Price Index
Dallas Fed's Services Revs & TX Service Sector Outlook
Conference Board's Jan Consumer Confidence/Expectations  (10am et)
US Treasury Auctions $26B 52-week Bills & $20B 2-year FRN (11:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $32B 7-year Notes (1pm et)
Pres Trump will NOT deliver State of the Union Address
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
         BoJ Summary of Opinions from board members at Jan 22--23 policy meeting

         So. Korea Feb Manufacturing BSI Index
         Japan Dec Retail Trade & Jan Consumer Confidence Index
         UK BRC Jan Shop Price index
         Aussie 18Q4 CPI
         French 18Q4 GDP
         German GfK Feb Consumer Confidence & BDec Import Price Index
         French Dec Consumer Spending
         Spain Dec Retail Sales
         Credit Suisse Jan Swiss Survey of Expectations & ZEW Jan Expectations
         BoE Net Dec Consumer Credit, UK Dec Mortgage Approvals, M4 Money Supply
         Eurozone Jan Economic Confidence/Business, Industrial, Services Climate
         German Jan CPI +HICP
Wed.         Jan 30 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Apps
ADP Jan Non-Farmn Employment Report
US 18Q4 GDP + PCE (2nd guess, with bean counters on furlough, so subject to gov't reopening 8:30am et)
Treasury Refunding Announcement (8:30am et)
NAR Dec Pending Home Sales
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distilates Status (10:30am et)
FOMC post-Meeting Statement Released  (2pm et)
FOMC Chief Jerome Powell Press Conference (2:30pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:

         Japan Dec Loans & Discounts, Jan Foreign Buying of Japanese Stocks & Bonds, Dec Industrial Production
         So Korea Dec Industrial Production, Services Sector Output, & Retail Sales
         China Dec Swift Global Payments
         UK Jan GfK Consumer Confidence & Lloyds business Barometer
         Aussie 18Q4 Import/Export Price Index, Dec Private Sector Credit, Housing Credit
         China Jan Manufacturing, Non-Manufacturing & Composite PMI
         BoJ Dpty Gov Amamiya speaks to business leaders (Shimonoseki Japan)
         Singapore Business Expectations, Dec Bank Lending, 18Q4 Unemployment Rate
         Japan Dec Vehicle Production, Housing Starts, Construction Orders
         German Jan Unemployment Rate/Claims/Change
         French, Spanish, CPI & HICP
         Eurozone 18Q4 GDP, Dec Unemployment Rate/Change
         Italy 18Q4 (Prelim) GDP, Monthly Unemployment
         So Africa Dec PPI
         India Dec Federal Fiscal Deficit
         Brazil Unemployment Rate
         So Africa Dec Trade Balance
         Canada Nov '18 GDP, Dec Industrial Product Price, Raw Materials Price
Thursday, Jan 31 Challenger Jan. US Lay-offs
Brazil Dec Budget Balance
US weekly Jobless Claims
US Nov. Personal Income/Outlays
/PCE (subject to gov't reopening)
Jan Chicago PMI
Canada Jan CFIB Business Barometer, Nov GDP, Dec IPPI, RMPI
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills
USDA Farm Prices (if gov't reopens)
BoC Dpty Gov Wilkins speaks on "How the Labour Market is changinng & how it influences monetary policy:" (Toronto)
Fed Reserve weekly Balance Sheet & US weekly Money Supply (4:30pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
        Aussie AiG Jan Performance of Manufacturing Index, CBA Jan Manufacturing PMI, CoreLogic Jan HPI, PPI
         So. Korea Jan CPI, Trade Balance, Nikkei Manufacturing PMI
         Japan Dec Jobless Rate, Jan Official Reserve Assets
         Ward's Total Jan US Vehicle Sales
         Aussie 18Q4 PPI
         Japan Nikkei Jan Manufacturing PMI, Jan Vehicle Sales
         India Nikkei Jan Manufacturing PMI
         China Caixan Jan Manufacturing PMI
         Aussie RBA Jan Commodity Index
         Swiss SECO Jan Consumer Confidence, SVME Manufacturing PMI. Dec Retail Sales
         Eurozone, France, German, Italian, Markit Jan Manufacturing PMI
         UK Markit Jan Manufacturing PMI
         Eurozone Jan CPI
         Brazil Jan Trade Balance
Friday,      Feb 01 US Jan. Motor Vehicle Sales
US Jan. Unemployment Report
(8:30am expect uptick on Fed contract workers laid off)
US Avg Hourly Earnings/Weekly Earnings
RBC Jan Canadian Manufacturing PMI
US PMI Manufacturing Index  (9:45a,m et)
US ISM Manufacturing Index/New Orders/Prices Paid/Employment  (10am et)
US Dec Construction Spending
U.M. Jan Consumer Sentiment (10am et)
Mexico Markit Jan Manufacturing PMI
Fed's Kaplan Q&A before Texas Lyceum Public Conference (Austin TX)
Baker-Hughes wkly US/No.Am Rig Count (1pm--last week 1st serious decline in ages)
Saturday, Feb 02 BoP (China) 18Q4 Current Account Balance
China Caixin Jan Services & Composite PMI

Sunday,   Feb 03 Fed's Kashkari participates at Town Hall Q&A (Long Lake MN)
    OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
        New Zealand Dec Building Permits
        Aussie Dec Building Approvals
        Eurozone Feb Sentix Investor Confidence
        UK Markit/CIPS Jan Construction PMI
        Italy Jan CPI & HICP
        Singapore Jan Manufacturing PMI
        Eurozone Dec PPI
        Spain Unemployment Rate

ASIA celebrates the Lunar New Year most of the week, China all week, with markets & factories closed. Only Rails & Airlines are functioning normally all week

Data from US Federal Agencies will arrive only as ready, since the shutdown ended.
Monday, Feb 04 US Jan Motor Vehicle Sales
US Dec Factory Orders
US Dec Durable Goods Orders/Shipments (if the data is ready, since shutdown ended)
Conference Board's Jan Employment Trends Index
US Treasury Auctions $45B 3-, & $39B 6-month  Bills
TD Ameritrade IMX
Fed's Mester on eco outlook & monetary policy at 50 Club of Cleveland Annual (7:30pm)
South Korea, China, Hong Kong, Singapore CLOSED for Lunar New Year
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:

         Aussie AiG Jan Performance of Services, CBA Services & Composite PMI
         New Zealand ANZ Jan Commodity Prices
         Aussie Dec Trade Balance, Retail Sales
         RBA (Aussie) MPC Rate Decision
         Japan Nikkei Jan Services & Composite PMI
         Eurozone, France, Italy, Germany Markit Jan Services & Composite PMI
         Riksbank Gov Ingves at hearing on financial stability @Riksdag Cmte on Finance
         UK Markit/CIPS Jan Services & Composite PMI, Retail Sales, Official Fx Reserves
         Eurozone Dec Retail Sales
Tuesday,  Feb 05 Redbook weekly store sales snapshot
US Jan Markit Services & Composite PMI
ISM Jan US non-Manufacturing Index
Canada Dec Trade Balance
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills (11am et values to be announced)
US Treasury Auctions $38B 3-yr Notes (1pm et)
New Year Holidays in China, So Korea, Singapore Hong Kong

    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
        RBA's Lowe speaks
        German Dec Factory Orders, Markit Jan Contruction PMI
        Central Bank of India Interest Rate & REPO Rate Decision, Cash Reserve Ratio
        Riksbank Dpty Gov Jochnick panelist on Banking Union (Stockholm)
        EU Economic Forecasts
Wed.,       Feb 06 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance applications
Brazil Markit Jan Services & Composite PMI
US Dec Int'l Trade Deficit (if ready after shutdown ended)
US Dec Retail Sales?
US Q4 GDP? PCE? (if ready since US gov't shutdown ended)

Canada Dec Building Permits + Ivey Jan PMI
18Q4 US Productivity & Costs
Brazil Jan Auto Production & Sales
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Report (w/e 02/01)
US Treasury Auctions $27B 10-year Notes (1pm et)
Brazil MPC Interest Rate Decision  (current 6.5%)
BoC Dpty Gov Lane  speech on "Canadian Approach to Foreign Reserve Mgnmnt" @ Peterson Institute for Int'l Economics (D.C.)
Holidays in China, So Korea, Singapore Hong Kong + New Zealand
Fed's Powell opens, & answer questions via livestream, to Fed Bk of Richmond Charlotte branch, "Conversation with the Chairman: a Teacher Town Hall Meeting" (7pm)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs a.m. et:
        Aussie AiG Jan Performance of Construction Index, NAB Q4 Business Confidence
        New Zealand Q4 Unemployment Rate/Change/Participation/Labor Costs
        German Dec Industrial Production, Trade Balance
        French Dec Current Account, Trade Balance
        Spain Dec Industrial Production
        Italy Dec Retail Sales
        Swiss UBS Q4 Real Estate Bubble Index, Jan Fx Reserves
        UK Jan Halifax House Price Index
        BoE MPC sets Interest Rates. Asset Purchase Targets, Issues Inflation Report
        ECB's Mersch speaks @ American European Community Association (Brussels)
Thurs.      Feb 07 BoE Gov Carney post-meeting Press Conference
US weekly Jobless Claims
Mexico Jan CPI
Pres Trump former personal attorney, Michael Cohen testimony @ US House cancelled
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills (11:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $19B 30-year Bonds (1pm et)
US Dec Consumer Credit (3pm et; debt really)
Bank of Mexico MPC Sets Interest & Overnight Rates
Fed weekly Reserve Bank Balance Sheet & US Weekly Money Supply
China Holiday
Fed's Bullard on US economy & monetary policy @ St Cloud State Univ w/Q&A (MN 7:30pm)
China remains closed for Golden Week/Lunar NewYear
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
        Japan Dec Current Account Balance/Trade Balance, Q4 Housing Loans, Overall Lending, Labor Cash Earnings, Jan Bankruptcies, Dec Household Spending
        Hong Kong Jan Manufacturing PMI
        Swiss Jan Unemployment Rate
        French Q4 Unemployment Rate/Change, Dec Industrial Production
        Russian Central Bank Feb Interest Rate Decision
        German Dec Trade Balance
Friday,     Feb 08 Canada Jan Unemployment Rate/Change/Participation, Housing Starts
US Dec Wholesale Inventories (if ready since Gov't shutdown ended)
Fed's Bullard on US Economy & Monetary Policy @57th Winter Institute hosted by Center for Economic Education (Saint Cloud MN)
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm et)
US WASDE Report (if ready, since shutdown ended)
Sat.          Feb 09 China Spring Festival--Holiday

  02/12    RBNZ (New Zealand) MPC Meets
                                       02/13    Riksbank (Sweden) MPC Meets & Releases Policy Statement
                                                    Fed's Bostic on Eco Outlook & Monetary Policy before European Financial Forum (Dublin Ireland)
                                                     Fed's Mester "A View from the Federal Reserve" before "What's Next for Kentucky in the Global Economy," hosted by U of KY Gatton College of Biz & Economics
                                       02/20     FOMC Jan 29--30 Meeting Minutes
                                       02/22      Fed's Bullard panelist on "The Future of the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet" at U of Chicago Booth School fo Biz Initiative on Global Markets
                                      03/06       NY Fed's Williams speaks @ Economic Club of NY (11:30am--2pm)
                                                     Fed's Beige Book
                                                     BoC MPC Interest Rate Decision
                                                     ECB Monetary Policy Release, Draghi Press Conference
                                      03/15       BoJ MPC Meeting
                                03/19--20     FOMC Meets

*FOMC 2018 Voting Members:  Chairperson Jerome Powell, as of 02/05/18, and ALL members of the FOMC Board of Governors are permanent voters: That includes Randall Quarles, & Lael Brainard, newly (Sept) sworn in Richard Clarida, plus New York Fed Pres, currently John Williams (Formerly of the San Francisco Fed) who replaced William Dudley, who retired from the bank on June 15, 2018.:New, revolving Regional Fed Bank leaders who are voters for 2018: Atlanta Fed Pres. Raphael Bostic, new in August 2017 (replaced Dennis Lockhart), former McKinsey exec Thomas Barkin, who assumed the title of Pres of Richmond Fed on 01/01/18, plus San Francisco Fed, without a leader, since Williams left for NY in July, named Mary Daly Pres/CEO as of 10/1/2018, who'll be a voter until Feb. The hole in the San Francisco Fed's hierarchy resulted in Esther George--a very vocal hawk--becoming a voting member of the FOMC, but she steps aside as of Mary Daly's swearing in, and returns as a voter in Feb 2019. Cleveland Fed's voter, Loretta Mester, a hawk, who wants rates raised at a quicker pace because she believes the Fed has, already, fallen behind the curve.  Richmond wound up with an opening, after Jeff Lacker resigned, in early April 2017, when it became known he'd (unintentionally) leaked sensitive FOMC discussions to Medley Advisors. Richmond operated with an Interim Pres, Mark L Mullinix, while searching for its new leader, Thomas Barkin, who arrived Jan 1st 2018.. Dissenters at the Dec. 2017 Meeting, Neel Kashkari & Charles Evans, are no longer voters in 2018.
               * HICP used in Europe, means Harmonized Index of Consumer Price