wall street in advance

February/March 2019  Economic Statistics
and Other Economic Influences

                Weekly Chain Store Sales*
                 Average Hourly Earnings*
                 API Weekly Gas/Oil Stockpiles Report*  **
Mortgage Applications  Data
                 EIA Weekly Report on Gas & Oil Stockpiles* (10a.m.)
                 Weekly Unemployment Report*
                  Weekly Mutual Fund Flows*
                   Natural Gas Storage Levels* (a.m.)

 *Except Holidays    ** As of 1/09         All Dates Subject to Change:
Sun.          Feb 24     OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
         German Jan Import Prices
          New Zealand Q4 Retail Sales
          Japan Jan Corporate Service Price
          Singapore 18Q4 GDP , Jan CPI
          Riksbank (Sweden) Releases Minutes of its Prior MPC Meeting
          Swiss 18Q4 Unemployment
          Brazil Central Bank Focus Market Readout, Jan Current Account, Foreign Direct Investment
Monday,   Feb 25 Chicago Fed National Activity Index
US Dec (F) Wholesale Trade

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
US Treasury Auctions $39B 6-month Bills & $40B 2-year Notes (11:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $48B 3-month Bills & $41B 5-year Notes (1pm et)
     OVERNIGHT into US Tues a.m. et:
          German GfK
March Consumer Confidence
          RBNZ (New Zealand) Dpty Gov Bascand speech on "Capital Review--Safet Banks for a Safer New Zealand" (Wellington)
          UK BBA Loans for Jan House Purchase
          ECB's Mersch keynotes 3rd FinTech & Digital Innovation:
Regulation at the European Level and Beyond" organized by Afore Consulting (Brussels)
          ECB's Coeure opens Jt Detusche Bank, ECB, Fed Reserve Bk of Chicago Conference on CCP Risk Managaement (Franfurt DE)
Tuesday,   Feb 26 US Dec  Housing Starts/Building Permits (8:30am)
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot
S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller Dec 20-city Home Price Index (9am et)
FHFA Dec Home Price Index
Conference Board's Feb Consumer Confidence
Philly Fed Feb Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey
FOMC Chief Powell Senate Banking Cmte Semi-Annual Testimony (10am et)
Pharmaceutical Execs to testify at US Senate on high drug prices
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
US Treasury Auctions $26B 52-week Bills (11:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $32B 7-year Notes (1pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
         New Zealand Jan Trade Balance
         German Jan Retail Sales
         UK BRC Feb Shop Price Index
         Hong Kong 18Q4 GDP

         Aussie 18Q4 Construction Work Done
         Swiss ZEW Feb Survey
         Italian Jan Trade Balance & Business Confidence
         Eurozone Jan M3 Money Supply, Feb Economic Confidence, & Zew Survey
Wed.         Feb 27 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications
US Dec Int'l Trade Deficit (8:30am et)
Brazil Unemployment Rate
Canada Jan CPI
US Dec Factory Orders
US Adv Dec Retail Inventories
US Dec Wholesale Inventories
FOMC Chief Powell Semi-Annual Testimony @ US House (10am et)
US Dec (F) Durable Goods Orders/Shipments
NAR Jan Pending Home Sales

EIA Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Report (w/e 02/22  10:30am et)
Ragharam Rajan & Sir Paul Tucker speak on "Rise of Populism" @ NABE (DC 4:10pm)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
         So Korea Jan Industrial Production, Service Sector Output, & Retail Sales
         Japan Jan Retail Trade, Feb Industrial Production+ Forecast
         Brazil FX Flows
         China Swift Global Payments
         Aussie 18Q4 Private CapEX, Jan Private Sector Credit, HIA Oct New Home Sales, Private Sector Credit
          Independent Centre for Monetary Economics (Oslo) releases annual Review of Norwegian Central Bank Policy
          China Feb Manufacturing, Non-Manufacturing + Composite PMI
         UK Feb Nationwide House Price Index, Feb Consumer Confidence, Lloyds Biz Barometer
          So Korea March Interest Rate Decision
          BoJ Suzuki speaks (Mito), Dec Vehicle Production, Jan Housing Starts/Construction Orders
          Singapore Jan Bank Lending
          South Africa Jan Private Sector Credit
          Swiss 18Q4 GDP, KOF Feb Leading Indicator
          UK GfK Feb Consumer Confidence, Nationwide HPI
          French 18Q4 GDP, Jan Consumer Spending
          Spanish Dec Current Account,
          Spanish & Italian Feb CPI, HICP
          India Jan Fiscal Defecit, 18Q3 GDP, Jan Infrasstructure Output
          Canada CFIB Feb Business Barometer
          German Feb (P) CPI

Thursday, Feb 28 Fed V. Chair Clarida on a "View from the Federal Reserve Board @ 35th NABE Economic Policy Conference-"Promoting Global Growth and Domestic Economic Security  (8am et D.C.)
18Q4 US GDP includes PCE  (8:30am et delayed by Dec gov't shutdown)
Weekly US Jobless Claims
Fed's Bostic panelist @ 2019 Big Data, Big Money: Exploring Banking's Next Horizon,on "Economic & Housing Landscape Update" w/Q&A (8:50am et Atlanta GA)
Canada 18Q4 Current Account Balance, Jan Industrial & Raw MAterials Product Pricesd
Chicago Feb PMI
EIA weeky Natural Gas Report (10:30am et)
K.C. Fed Manufacturing Index (11am et)
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills
Alan Greenspan Lifetime Achievement Award Presentation @NABE
Fed's Harker speaks on Eco Outlook at Philadelphia Inquirer's Influencers of Finance Awards (PA 12:15pm et)
Fed's Kaplan participant in Q&A @ Real Estate Council of San Antonio (TX 1pm)
Fed's Messter speaks @ 2nd Women in Economics Symposium Fed Bk of St Louis
USDA Farm Prices (3pm et)
Fed weekly Balance Sheet & US Money Supply (4:30pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
         New Zealalnd 18Q4 Terms of Trade Index, Jan Building Permits, Consumer Confidence
        Aussie AiG Feb Performance of manufacturing Index, CBA Feb Mnftg PMI, CoreLogic Feb House Price index, Vehicle Sales
        Japan Jan Jobless Rate. Job-to-Applicant Rate, Loans & Discounts, Feb CPI
        Japan 18Q4 Company Sales & Profits, CapEx, Feb Official Reserves, Nikkei Feb Mnftg PMI & CapEx
        China Caixin Feb Mnftg PMI
        Aussie Feb RBA Commodity Index
        Swiss Jan Retail Sales, Feb Mnftg PMI
        Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy Feb Mnftg PMI
        South Korea Feb Trade Balance
        German Feb Unemployment Claims Rate/Change, CPI & HICP
        UK Jan Net Lending, Mortgage Approvals
, M4, Markit Feb Mnftg PMI
        Eurozone Jan Unemployment Rate, Feb CPI
        Brazill 18Q4 GDP
        India Nikkei Feb Mnftg PMI
        Spanish Feb Mnftg PMI
        Swiss Jan Retail Sales, SWME Feb PMI
        Eurozone, French, Italian, German Feb Mftg PMI
        South Africa Jan Trade Balance, Mnftg PMI, Feb Total Vehicle Sales
        Eurozone Jan Unemployment Rate
        India Bank Loan & Deposit Growth, Fx Reserves
        Wards Feb US Vehicle Sales
        Canada 18Q4 GDP, Dec GDP    
Friday,  March 01 Former NY Fed Pres Dudley on Financial Stability & Normalization of Monetary Policy @ NABE (8:05am et)
US Jan* Personal Income & Dec* Spending (includes PCE  8:30am et)
US Feb Vehicle Sales (ex-GM & Ford)
Canada 18Q4 GDP. RBC Feb Mnftg PMI, Jan IPPI + RMPI
Brazil Jan Budget Balance & Feb Trade Balance
US Manufacturing PMI (9:45am et)
ISM Manufacturing Index/Prices Paid/Orders/Employment
U.M. Final Feb Consumer Sentiment
Mexico Markit Feb Mnftgg PMI
Fed's Bostic fireside chat A View from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta @ 35th NABE Economic Policy Conference (D.C. 12:45pm et)
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm et)
South Korea Holiday--Independence Movement
Saturday,  Mar 02 Trump took increase in tariffs on $200B Chinese goods off the table, for now, late on 02/24, in a tweet
Sunday,     Mar 03     OVERNIGHT into US Mon a.m. et:
         Japan Feb Ending Monetary Base
         So Korea Nikkei Manufacturing PMI
         ANZ Job Ads, Jan Building Approvals, 18Q4 Business Inventories, Corporate Profits, Private House Approvals
         Spain Unemployment Change
         UK Feb Construction PMI
         Singapore Feb Manufacturing PMI
         Eurozone Jan PPI
Monday,  Mar 04 Jan US Retail Inventories
US Dec Construction Spending
(10am et)
Jan US Durable Goods Orders/Shipments
US Treasury Auctions $48B 3-, & $39B 6-month Bills (11:30am et)
TD Ameritrade IMX (12:30pm est)
Brazil Holiday--Carnivale
India Holiday
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues a.m. et
         Aussie TD Securities Feb Inflation, Feb CBA Services & Composite PMI, Q4 Current Account Balance
         South Korea 18Q4 GDP, Feb CPI
         New Zealand ANZ Feb Commodity Price
         Hong Kong Feb Manufacturing PMI
         Nikkei Feb Japan Services & Composite PMI
         China Caixin Feb Services & Composite PMI

         China Premier Xi Press Conference pre-Opening of NPC
         China National Peoples Congress
(Tues. local time, thru 8th)
         RBA (Aussie) MPC Decision, March Cash Target Rate (03/05 local time)
         Swedish Dpty Gov Skingsley panelist on possible introduction of digital currency
         So Africa Standard Bank Feb PMI, 18Q4 GDP
         SNB (Swiss Central Bank) FY18 Results, Swiss Feb CPI
         Eurozone Sentix Mar Investor Confidence, Jan PPI, Retail Sales
         Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, Spain Feb Services & Composite PMI
         Italy 18Q4 GDP
         UK Markit/CIPS Feb Services, Composite PMI, BRC Feb Like-for- Like Sales, New Car Registrations, Official Fx Reserves
Tuesday,  Mar 05 Fed's Rosengren on current economic landscape @ Nat'l Ass'n of Corporate Directors; New England Chapter (Boston MA 7:30am et)
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot
US Dec Construction Spending
US Feb Services & Composite PMI  (9:45am et)
US Dec New Home Sales (10am et)
US Feb ISM non-Manufacturing Index/Employment/Prices 
US Treasury Budget (2pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
        RBA Gov Lowe
speaks (Sydney), Q4 GDP, CapEx, Price Index, Consumption 
        BoJ's Harada speaks (Kofu)
        So Korea Feb Fx Reserves
        Markit German Feb Construction PMI
        BoE Financial Policy Statement of Feb. 26th  Meeting
        BoE's Saunders speaks @ Imperial College (London)
        BoE Dpty Gov Cunliffe speaks @ LSESU (London Sschool of Eeconomics Student Union) Economic Symposium, "The Next Great Crisis"
Wed.,       Mar 06 MBA Mortgage/Refinance Applications (7am et)
ADP Feb private sector Employment Report (8:15am et)
US Dec Int'l Trade Deficit  (8:30am)
Canada Dec Trade Balance & Q4 Labor Productivity
Jan Factory Orders
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates (10:30am et  w/e 03/01)
Canada Ivey Feb PMI
Brazil Auto Production/Sales
BoE's Economist Haldane hosts 1st "Citizens Panel" (Hull England)
Fed's Mester participant in moderated Q&A @Columbus Partnership (noon Columbus OH)
Fed's Williams on "The Economic Outlook: The 'New Normal' is Now" @Economic Club of  NY w/Q&A (12:10 pm et)
Bk of Canada MPC Interest Rate Decision Announced
Fed's Beige Book (2pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs a.m. et:
         Aussie Feb Performance of Construction Index, Jan Trade Balance & Retail Sales, Feb Fx Reserves
         China Feb Fx Reserves
         Swiss Feb Unemployment Rate, Fx Reserves
         UK Halifax Feb House Prices, RICS House Price Balance
         So Africa Feb Fx Reserves Report/Change, 18Q4 Current Account
         Hong Kong Fx Reserves
         Italy Jan Retail Sales
         Eurozone 18Q4 Unemployment, GDP, Gross Fixed Capital, Gov't Expenditure, Housheold Consumption
         ECB MPC Rate Decision, Deposit Facility, QE, (possibly adds back support?  Frankfurt DE  03/07 local time)        
Thurs.      Mar 07 ECB Chief Draghi post-Meeting Press Conference (7:30am et?)
Challenger Feb US Job-Cut Report (7:30am et)
US weekly Jobless Claims (8:30am et)
US 18Q4 Productivity & Costs
Brazil Markit Feb Services & Composite PMI
Canada Jan Building Permits
Mexico Feb CPI
OECD Interim Economic Outlook
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (10:30am et)
US Treasury Refunding Announcement incl. 30-yr Bonds (11am et)
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills (11:30am; value not announced at post)
US Jan Consumer Credit (3pm et)
Fed weekly Balance Sheet + US Money Supply (4:30pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri a.m. et:
         New Zealand 18Q4 Manufacturing Activity, Volume of All Buildings
         So Korea Jan Current Account
         Japan 18Q4 GDP, Jan Household Spending. Current Account Balance, CapEx, Trade Balance, Bank Lending, Eco Watchers Survey Feb Current Conditions, Outlook
         China Feb Trade Balance
         German Jan Factory Orders
         Italy Jan PPI, Industrial Production
         French Jan Trade Balance, Current Account
         Spain Jan Industrial Production
Friday,      Mar 08 US Feb Unemployment Report/Continuing Claims/Participation/Labor Costs (8:30am et)
Jan US Wholesale Inventories/Sales
US Jan Housing Starts/Building Permits
Canada Feb Unemployment Rate/Change/Participation/Wages/Full-Pt-Time, Housing Starts
Fed's Daly participant @ Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Brookings D.C. 10am)
WASDE Report
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm et)
Fed Gov Powell speaks prior to 2019 SIEPR Economic Summit Dinner (9pm et Stanford CA)
    OVERNIGHT into US Sat. a.m. et:
        ECB's Nowotny
speaks (Prague)
Sat.          Mar 09 China Feb CPI & PPI
Move Clocks Ahead by One Hour before going to sleep
  03/15     BoJ MPC Meeting
                                03/19--20     FOMC Meets
                                      03/21       BoE MPC Meets
                                                     SNB (Swiss) MPC Meets
                                                     Norges Bank (Norway) MPC Meets
                                     03/26        RBNZ (New Zealand) MPC Meets
                                     03/28        Bk of Mexico MPC Meets

*FOMC 2018 Voting Members:  Chairperson Jerome Powell, as of 02/05/18, and ALL members of the FOMC Board of Governors are permanent voters: That includes Randall Quarles, & Lael Brainard, newly (Sept) sworn in Richard Clarida, plus New York Fed Pres, currently John Williams (Formerly of the San Francisco Fed) who replaced William Dudley, who retired from the bank on June 15, 2018.:New, revolving Regional Fed Bank leaders who are voters for 2018: Atlanta Fed Pres. Raphael Bostic, new in August 2017 (replaced Dennis Lockhart), former McKinsey exec Thomas Barkin, who assumed the title of Pres of Richmond Fed on 01/01/18, plus San Francisco Fed, without a leader, since Williams left for NY in July, named Mary Daly Pres/CEO as of 10/1/2018, who'll be a voter until Feb. The hole in the San Francisco Fed's hierarchy resulted in Esther George--a very vocal hawk--becoming a voting member of the FOMC, but she steps aside as of Mary Daly's swearing in, and returns as a voter in Feb 2019. Cleveland Fed's voter, Loretta Mester, a hawk, who wants rates raised at a quicker pace because she believes the Fed has, already, fallen behind the curve.  Richmond wound up with an opening, after Jeff Lacker resigned, in early April 2017, when it became known he'd (unintentionally) leaked sensitive FOMC discussions to Medley Advisors. Richmond operated with an Interim Pres, Mark L Mullinix, while searching for its new leader, Thomas Barkin, who arrived Jan 1st 2018.. Dissenters at the Dec. 2017 Meeting, Neel Kashkari & Charles Evans, are no longer voters in 2018.
               * HICP used in Europe, means Harmonized Index of Consumer Price