wall street in advance

October 2019  Economic Statistics
and Other Economic Influences

                Weekly Chain Store Sales*
                 Average Hourly Earnings*
                 API Weekly Gas/Oil Stockpiles Report*  **
Mortgage Applications  Data
                 EIA Weekly Report on Gas & Oil Stockpiles* (10a.m.)
                 Weekly Unemployment Report*
                  Weekly Mutual Fund Flows*
                   Natural Gas Storage Levels* (a.m.)

 *Except Holidays    ** As of 1/09         All Dates Subject to Change:
Sunday,   Sept 29 ECB's Lautenschlager dinner speech @13th Luxembourg Expert Forum on the Development of Union Law organized by ECJ (EU Court of Justice, Luxembourg  20:00cet)
Rosh Hashana, the Jewish New Year starts at Sundown (thru 10/01 at sundown)
    OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
        New Zealand Aug Building Permits,ANZ Business Confidence
        South Korea Aug Industrial Production, Service Sector Output, Retail Sales
        Japan Aug Industrial Production, Retail Trade (Sales)
        BoJ Summary of Opinions (09/19 mtg), Official Fx Reserves
        Aussie TD Securities Sept Inflation, ANZ Business Activity/Outlook/Confidence 
        German Aug Retail Sales     
        Lloyds Sept UK Business Barometer
        China Sept (official) Manufacturing/non-Manufacturing/Composite PMI
        Aussie Aug Private Sector Credit, Housing Credit
        China Caixin Sept Manufacturing PMI
        Singapore Bank Lending
        RBI (India) Monetary & Credit Information Review
        UK Sept Nationwide House Price Index
        Japan Jul Vehicle Production, Aug Construction Orders, Housing Starts
        Wards Sept Total US Vehicle Sales
        German Sept Unemployment Claims/Change, Aug Retail Sales,
Import Price Index
        South Afridca Aug Private Sector Credit
        UK Q2 (F) GDP, Aug Consumer Credit, Mortgage Approvals, Business Investment
        Italy Aug Unemployment Rate/Change
       Eurozone Aug Unemployment Rate/Change
        Eurozone, French, German, Italian, Spanish CPI & HICP
        India Aug Federal Fiscal Deficit
Monday,  Sept 30 Brazil Q4 Long Term Interest Rate Oulook, Sept IGP-M Inflation Index, BCB Readout
Canada Aug Industrial Product & Raw Materials Prices
Brazil Aug Budget Balance, Debt-to-GEP Ratio
Chicago Sept PMI (9:45am et)
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $45B 3-, & $42B 6-month Bills (11:30am et)
ECB's Lane speaks @UCLA's MAE Distinguished Speaker Series (L. A. CA 6pm)
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
        Aussie AiG Sept Performance of Manufacturing Index, CBA Sept PMI
        South Korea Sept CPI, Trade BAlance
        Japan Aug Jobless Rate, Job-to-Applicant Ratio, Tankan Indices/Outlooks
        Aussie CoreLogic Sept House Price Index
        Japan Nikkei Sept Manufacturing PMI
        Singapore URA Qtr Property Index
        Aussie Aug Building Approvals, RBA Sept Commodity Index
        RBA MPC Rate Decision/Cash Rate Target (Oct 01 local time)
        Japan Sept Vehicle Sales
        India Nikkei Sept Manufacturing PMI
        Chicago Fed's Evans on monetary policy w/Q&A @GIC Central Banking Series: "Monetary & economic policies on both sides of the Atlantic" (Frankfurt DE 4:15am et)
        Swiss Aug Retail Sales, Sept Manufacturing PMI
        Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, Spain Sept Manufacturing PMI
        Eurozone Sept CPI
        South Africa SARB Monetary Policy Review

        RBA Gov Lowe speaks (Melbourne)         
        China's National Day--70th Anniversary since China Republic Founded-kicks off Golden Week (China on vacation until next week)
Tuesday   Oct 01 US Government New Fiscal Year Begins
Nobel Prize Winners Announced throughout the week

China/Hong Kong Holiday--National Day (Golden Week Starts)
Canada Jul GDP, RBC Sept Manufacturing PMI
South Africa SEpt Total Vehicle Sales
Brazil Aug Industrial Production, PPI
Fed V Chair Clarida remarks @FRB "Nontraditional Data, Machine Learning & Natural Language Processing in Macroeconomics" (8:50am et; FRB D.C. thru 2nd)
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot (8:55am et)
Fed's Bullard (9:15am et) welcome, (new) Fed Gov Bowman keynotes (9:30am et), FDIC Chair McWilliams (11:30am et) @Community Banking in the 21st Century Research & Policy Conference (St. Louis FRB )
US Markit Sept Manufacturing PMI (9:45am et)
US Sept ISM Mnftrg Index/Orders/Shipments/Employment/Prices Paid (10am et)
US Aug. Construction Spending
Mexico Sept Markit Manufacturing PMI
Brazil Sept Trade Balance
ECB's Draghi's Official Reception into the Academy of Athens (Athens Greece 19:45)
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
        New Zealand QV Sept House Prices
        UK BRC Sept Shop Price Index
        Japan Sept Consumer Confidence
        Swiss Sept CPI, HICP
        Spain Unemployment/Change
        Euro Area Qtrly Balance of Payments & Int'l Investment Position (10:00 cet)
        Hong Kong Aug Retail Sales, Fx Reserves
        UK Markit/CIPS Sept UK Construction PMI          
Wed.,       Oct 02 US Sept Motor Vehicle Sales (GM & F may announce Q3 Sales)
MBA Mortgage/Refinance Apps (7am et)
ADP Sept Private Sector Employment Report (8:15am et)
89th Annual Securities Traders Ass'n Market Structure Conference (NY)
Singapore Manufacturing PMI
Fed's Harker Day 2 Keynote @St Louis FRB Community Banking Research Conf (9am)
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Report (10:30am et; w/e 09/27)
NY Fed's Williams participant @UCal San Diego Economics Roundtable Lecture Series (10:50am et La Jolla CA)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
        Aussie AiG Sept Performance of Service Index, CBA Sep Services/Composite PMI
        New Zealand ANZ Sept Commodity Prices
        Japan/Jibun Bank Sept Services/Composite PMI
        Aussie Aug Trade Balance
        Fed's Evans on monetary policy w/Q&A & ECB's de Guindos @Global Interdependence Ctr Central Banking Series Madrid (Spain 3:45am et)
       South Africa Sept Standard Bank PMI
       Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy Markit Sept Services/Composite PMI
       UK Markit/CIPS Sept Services/Composite PMI
       Eurozone Aug Retail Sales, PPI
       ECB's Enria
speaks @Annual Supervisory Conference of the Financial Market Authority (Vienna Austria 9:30 cet)       
Thurs.      Oct 03 Challenger US Sept Job-Cuts Report (7:30am et)
Brazil Markit Sept Services/Composite PMI
US weekly Jobless Claims/Continuing Claims (8:30am et)
Fed V.Chair Quarles on "The Financial Stability Board at 10 Years" @European Banking Federation's European Banking Summit 2019 (8:30am et  Brussels Belgium)
US Sept Services PMI (9:45am et)
US Aug Factory Orders (10am et)
US non-Manufacturing ISM Index
US Aug (F) Durable Goods/Capital Goods Orders/Shipments

EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (10:30am et; w/e 09/27)
US Treasury Refunding Annoubcement (11am et)
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills (11:30am et)
Fed's Mester panelist on implications for monetary policy, + Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke, Paul Krugman, Jared Bernstein, Olivier Blanchard, David Wessel @Hutchins Ctr of Brookings Institution "What's (not) Up with Inflation?" (D.C.)
Fed V.Chair Clarida on "Outlook for the Economy & Monetary Policy" @WSJ Future of Markets Conference (6:35pm NY)
Fed weekly Balance Sheet (no more drawdowns) & weekly Money Supply (4:30pm et)
French-American Chamber of Commerce Foundation Gala (NY)
Holidays in China, South Korea & Germany
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
        RBA (Aussie) Financial Stability Review,
Aug Retail Sales, RBA's Ellis speaks (Geelong), HIA New Home Sales
        India Nikkei Services PMI
        RBI (India) MPC Interest Rate Decision
        French Gov't Aug Budget Balance
        German Markit Sept Construction PMI
        UK Sept New Car Registrations, Q2 Housing Equity Withdrawal
Friday,     Oct 04 US September Unemployment Report/Change/Wages/Participation (8:30am et)
US Aug Int'l Trade Deficit
Canada Aug Int'l Merchandise Trade Balance, Ivey Sept PMI
Fed's Rosengren opens (8:30am et) FRB of Boston 63rd Economic Conference: "A House Divided Geographic Disparities in  21st Century America,"  (Boston FRB thru 5th)
Fed's Bostic fireside chat on economy w/Q&A @40th Tulane Business Forum: Curating the Customer Experience (New Orleans LA 10:25am et)
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm et  w/e 09/27)
Fed's Kashkari moderated Q&A "Next Steps in local housing policy" @Fall Opportunity & Inclusive Growth Institute Conference (12:45pm et Minneapolis MN)
Fed's Powell opens @Fed Listens:"Perspectives on Maximum Employment & Price Stability" (2pm), then turns mic over to Fed Gov Brainard on "Gauging Maximum Employment in a changing Labor Market" (2:10pm et)
Fed Vice Chair Quarles panel: "The Importance of Price Stability & Low Inflation in Today's Economy" (4pm et)  @Fed Listens:"Perspectives on Maximum Employment & Price Stability" @FRB (D.C.)
Saturday, Oct 05 China Golden Week Continues
Sunday,    Oct 06 China FX reserves
Fed's George closing 1st day  @NABE (Business Economists; 4pm Denver CO thru 8th)
    OVERNIGHT into US Mon a.m. et:
        Aussie AiG Sept Performance of Construction
        China Sept Caixin Services/Conmposite PMI
        Japan Sept Fx Reserves
        German Aug Factory Orders
        Eurozone Oct Sentix Investor Confidence
        UK Halifax Sept House Price Index
        Nobel Prize for Physiology or Medicine Announced
        Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout
Monday,  Oct 07 Fed's Kashkari fireside chat about Minneapolis Fed work in Native Am. Country @NAFOA Annual Finance & Tribal Economies Conference  (10:20am Prior Lake MN)
WSJ Global Food Forum (NY)
US Treasury Auctions $45B 3-, & $42B 6-month Bills (11:30am et)
TD Ameritrade IMX (12:30pm et)
Fed Chief Powell remarks before premiere screening of KUED film, "Marriner Eccles: Father of the Modern Federal Reserve" (1pm et Salt Lake City UT)
US Aug Consumer Credit (3pm; debt, really)
National Day Golden Week Continues in China & Hong Kong
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
        UK BRC Sept Like-for-Like Sales
        Japan Aug Labor Cash Earnings, Household Spending, Trade Balance, Current Account Balance
        New Zealand Gov't Full Year Financial Statements
        Aussie NAB Sept Business Confidence/Conditions, ANZ Sept Job Ads
        BoE Gov Carney speaks @Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosure Summit (speech to be released at 5:10 gmt Tokyo)
        China Sept New Yuan Loans, Aggregate Financing
        NewZealand REINZ Sept House Sales
        Swiss Sept Unemployment Rate
        German & Spanish Aug Industrial Production
        French Aug Trade Balance
        Italian Aug Retail Sales
        UK Q2 Labor Productivity
        BoE's Cleland speaks @PayExpo 2019 (London 12:10gmt)
        Nobel Prize for Physics Announced
Tuesday,  Oct 08 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (6am et)
Canada Sept Housing Starts/Aug Building Permits
US Sept PPI--Final Demand (8:30am et)
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot (8:55am et)
Fed's Schedule of Continuing REPO Offerings through end of October here
US Treasury Auctions $28B 52-week Bills (11:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $38B 3-year Notes (1pm et)
Fed's Evans speaks w/Q&A @Chicago Rotary Club luncheon (1:35pm Chicago IL)
Fed Chief Powell speaks on "Data Dependence in an Evolving Economy" @NABE Business Economics Annual Meeting  (2:30pm et Denver CO)
Fed Chief  Powell speaks @NABE (1:50pm et)
Fed's Kashkari speaks @St Cloud State Univ. Town Hall w/Q&A (5pm St. Cloud MN)
Holiday in India--Dasara
Yom Kippur, the Jewish Day of Atonement begins at Sundown 
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
        New Zealand Sept ANZ Heavy Truckometer
        Japan Machine Tool Orders
        Swiss Q3 Real Estate Index of Family Homes
        Nobel Prize for Chemistry Announced
        BoE publishes Financial Policy Summary & Record of the Financial Policy Cmte Meeting (9:30gmt)
        Brazil Sept CPI
        ECB Governing Council meets for Non-Monetary Policy session
        ECB's Lane panelist @ECB Conference on Monetary Policy: bridging science & practice (Frankfurt Germany 11:30cet)
        Publication of the Consolidated Financial Quarterly Statement of the Eurosystem
        Mexico Sept CPI
Wed.         Oct 09 MBA Mortgage/Refinance Apps (7am et)
US Aug JOLTS (Job Turnover & Openings; 10am et )
US Aug. Wholesale Trade (Sales/Inventories; 10am et)
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Report  (10:30am et; w/e 10/04)
Fed's Powell opens, then he & K.C. Fed's George co-host roundtable "Fed Listens: A Community Listening Session" before Community & Biz Leaders (11am et; K.C., MO)
Brazil Reuters Oct IPSOS-PCS
US Treasury Auctions $24B reopened 10-year Notes (1pm et)
Fed Minutes of 2-day Meeting Sept 18th  (2pm et)
Yom Kippur, the Jewish  Day of Atonement ends at Sundown (light trading volume)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
         UK RICS Sept House Price Balance

         Japan Sept Bank & Trust Lending, Aug Machine Orders, Sept Domestic Goods Price Index, PPI
         Japan Reuters Oct Tankan Index
         Aussie Aug Home Loans, Investment Lending, Owner-Occupied Loan Value
         China Sept Foreign Direct Investment
         German Aug Trade Balance, Current Account, Sovereign Debt Rated by S&P
         French & Italian Aug Industrial Production
         ECB publishes account of the Sept 11--12/19 Governing Council MPC (13:30cet)
         UK Aug Construction Ouput, Industrial & Manufacturing Production, NIESR GDP, Trade Balance, Index of Services
         South Africa Aug Mining & Gold Production
         BoE Gov Carney speaks at launch of of new 20 GBP banknote (Margate 10:30gmt)
         Nobel Prize in Literature for 2018 & 2019 Announced
         OPEC Monthly Report (estimated date)
Thurs,      Oct 10 Brazil Aug Retail Sales
US Sept CPI  (8:30am et)
US weekly Jobless Claims
US Sept Chain Store Sales
Canada Aug New Housing Price Index
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (10:30am et;  w/e 10/04)
Bloomberg Future of Investing: Focus on Corporate Governance (D.C.)
Chinese delegation lead by PremierLiu arrives for Trade Talks (D.C. thru 11th)
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills (11:30am et; value not available at post)
Fed's Kashkari fireside chat on Fed Reserve, economy & markets @Yahoo Finance All Markets Summit (NY 12:15pm et)
US Treasury Auctions $16B reopened 30-year Bonds (1pm et)
US Treasury Budget (2pm et)
US weekly Fed Balance Sheet & US weekly Money Supply (4:30pm et)
ECB's Lane speaks @CEPR Research & Policy Network Workshop (Frankfurt 19:30cet)
Fed's Mester fireside chat w/Q&A @John Carroll U. (5:30pm University Heights, OH)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
       Singapore Q3 (P) GDP
       RBA (Aussie) Financial Stability Review
       So. Korea BOK Financial Stability Board Meeting Minutes
       Singapore Aug Retail Sales
       New Zealand Sept Businesss & Manufacturing PMI, Card Spending
       Eurozone, French, German Italian, Spanish Sept CPI & HICP
       Nobel Prize for Peace announced
       Mexican Aug Industrial Production
       India Aug Industrial Production, Manufacturing Output
Friday,     Oct 11 Fed's Kashkari  fireside chat @Council on Foreign Relations w/Q&A (8am et NY)
US Sept Import/Export Prices (8:30am et)
Canada Sept Unemployment Rate/Change/Participation/Wages/Part-/Full-Time
U.M. (Prelim) Oct. Consumer Sentiment--Current/Expectations (10am et)
Fed Reserve Bk hosts students on "Exploring Careers in Economics" (10:30am et D.C.)
Russia Aug Trade Balance
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm et;  w/e 10/04)
Fed's Rosengren speaks @American Economic Challenges Symposium @Univ of Wisconsin-Madison (1:15pm Madison WI)
Fed's Kaplan speaks w/Q&A @Commonwealth Club of California (3pm et San Francisco)
    OVERNIGHT into US Sat. a.m. et:
         Singapore Q2 GDP
Saturday, Oct 12
Brazil Holiday--Our Lady of Aparecida Day
      WEEKS AHEAD: 10/14    Econonic Sciences Memorial Prize
awarded in memory of Alfred Nobel
                                    10/15    12 Democratic 2020 Presidential Hopefuls Debate on CNN
                                     10/24    ECB MPC Meets
(a week pre-Brexit)
                                                   Norges (Norway) MPC Meets
                                10/29--30   FOMC 2-day Meeting
                                      10/30    FOMC Rate Decision

                                                   BoC (Canada) MPC Rate Decision
                                      10/31    BoJ MPC Meets

*FOMC 2019 Voting Members:  Chairperson Jerome Powell, as of 02/05/18, and ALL members of the FOMC Board of Governors are permanent voters: That includes Randall Quarles, & Lael Brainard, Richard Clarida, Gov Bowman, (Senate confirmed 09/12/19) plus New York Fed Pres, currently John Williams (Formerly of the San Francisco Fed) who replaced William Dudley, who retired from the bank on June 15, 2018.:New, revolving Regional Fed Bank leaders who are voters for 2018: Atlanta Fed Pres. Raphael Bostic, new in August 2017 (replaced Dennis Lockhart), former McKinsey exec Thomas Barkin, who assumed the title of Pres of Richmond Fed on 01/01/18. San Francisco Fed named Mary Daly Pres/CEO as of 10/1/2018, who'll be a voter until Feb. The hole in the San Francisco Fed's hierarchy resulted in Esther George--a very vocal hawk--becoming a voting member of the FOMC, but she steps aside as of Mary Daly's swearing in, and returns as a voter in Feb 2019. Cleveland Fed's voter, Loretta Mester, a hawk, who wants rates raised at a quicker pace because she believes the Fed has, already, fallen behind the curve.  Richmond wound up with an opening, after Jeff Lacker resigned, in early April 2017, when it became known he'd (unintentionally) leaked sensitive FOMC discussions to Medley Advisors. Richmond operated with an Interim Pres, Mark L Mullinix, while searching for its new leader, Thomas Barkin, who arrived Jan 1st 2018.. Dissenters at the Dec. 2017 Meeting, Neel Kashkari & Charles Evans, are no longer voters in 2018.
               * HICP used in Europe, means Harmonized Index of Consumer Price