wall street in advance

August/September 2019  Economic Statistics
and Other Economic Influences

                Weekly Chain Store Sales*
                 Average Hourly Earnings*
                 API Weekly Gas/Oil Stockpiles Report*  **
Mortgage Applications  Data
                 EIA Weekly Report on Gas & Oil Stockpiles* (10a.m.)
                 Weekly Unemployment Report*
                  Weekly Mutual Fund Flows*
                   Natural Gas Storage Levels* (a.m.)

 *Except Holidays    ** As of 1/09         All Dates Subject to Change:
Sunday,    Aug 25 German Jul Import Price Index
G7 Summit Continues  (Biarritz FR thru 26th)
    OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
        New Zeland July Trade Balance
        Singapore July Industrial Production
        Spain PPI
        Hong Kong July Trade Balance
        German Aug IFO Business Conditions/Expectations
        Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout
        EEA-ESEM 34th Annual Congress of the European Economic Ass'n+72nd European meeting of the Econometric Society (Manchester UK thru 30th)
Monday,   Aug 26 UK Summer Bank Holiday
US July  Durable + Capital Goods Orders/Shipments  (8:30am et)
Chicago Fed Aug National Activity Index
Brazil July current Account, Foreign Direct Investment
BoE's Broadbent, DiPace, Dreschsel, Harrison & LSE+BoE's Tenreyro discuss Paper #51: The Brexit Vote, productivity growth & macroeconomic adjustments in the UK @ EEA-ESEM (Manchester UK)
Dallas Fed Aug Manufacturing Survey
US Treasury Auctions $45B 3-, & $42B 6-month Bills (11:30am et)
    OVERNGHT into US Tues. a.,m. et:
         Japan Jul Corporate Service Prices, CPI
         German Jul Retail Sales
         China July Corporate Price Index &   Industrial Profits
         RBA's (Aussie) Debelle speaks (Canberra)
         German Q2 GDP, Private Consumption, Gov't Spending, CapEx,
         French Q3 Industrial Investments, Jobseekers
         UK BBA Jul Loans for House Purchase
         ECB's de Guindos on communication, expectations & monetary policy @34th Annual Congress of European Economic Ass'n (Manchester UK thru 30th)
Tuesday,  Aug 27 Redbook weekly store sales snapshot (8:55am et)
FHFA June House Price Index
S&P Case Shiller June 20-city Home Price Index
(9am et)
Conference Board's US Aug. Consumer Confidence (10am et)
Richmond Fed Aug Manufacturing Index
Dallas Aug Fed Services Revenues, Texas Services Sector Outlook
US Treasury Auctions $40B 2-year Notes (1pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed.
        UK Aug Nationwide House Price Index, BRC Shop Price Index
        Aussie Q2 Construction Work
        Swiss Aug ZEW Conditions/Expectations
        German Sept GfK Consumer Confidence

        Eurozone Jul Money Supply
        Nat'l Balance Sheet of euro area monetary financial institutions (ex-ECB)
Wed.        Aug 28 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Apps (7am et)
Brazil Jul Lending, PPI , Fx Flows
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillate Report (10:30am et;  w/e 08/23)
FRB Atlanta, Stanford & UChicago Booth School Survey of Business Uncertainty
US Treasury Auctions $18B reopened 2-year FRN (11:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $41B 5-year Notes (1pm et)
Fed's Daly speaks on Fed's dual mandate-the tradeoffs w/Q&A @RBNZ--IMF Conference: "Inflation Targeting: Prospects & Challenges" (5:30pm et Wellington NZ thru 29th)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
         South Korea Sept Manufacturing BSI
         Japan July Loans & Discounts
         China July Swift Global Payments
         New Zealand ANZ Aug Business Confidence/Activity Outlook
         Aussie Q2 Building/Plant/Machinery/Private CapEx
         Spain Aug CPI, HICP
         BoJ's Hitoshi Suzuki speaks (Kumamoto)
         French Q2 (F) GDP
         Italian Jun Industrials New Orders/ Sales, Jul PPI, HICP
         German Aug Unemployment Claims/Rate/Change, CPI, HICP
         Eurozone Aug CPI, Services, Industrial, Business & Consumer Confidence
         South Africa July PPI
         Canada CFIB Aug Business Barometer
Thurs,      Aug 29 Canada Q2 Current Account Balance
Brazil Q2 GDP, BCB National Monetary Council Meeting
US Q2 GDP/PCE (2nd guess;  8:30am et)
US July Int'l Trade Deficit  (trigger for a Trump tweet storm?)
US weekly initial Jobless Claims/Continuing Claims
US Q2 Corporate Profits
US (adv) Q2 Retail Inventories (ex-Autos)
US (adv) Wholesale Inventories
NAR July Pending Home Sales Index
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills (11:30am;  value not known at post)
US Treasury Auctions $32B 7-year Notes
Fed weekly Balance Sheet (final drawdown until "normalization of balance sheet resumes)
US weekly Money Supply (4:30pm et)
     OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
         South Korea July Industrial Production, Service Sector Output
         New Zealand July Building Permits, ANZ Aug Consumer Confidence
         UK Aug Lloyds Business Barometer, GfK Aug Consumer Confidence
         Japan July Jobless Apps/Rate, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Aug CPI
         South Korea Aug Interest Rate Decision
         Aussie July Building Approvals, Private Sector Credit
         Japan July Vehicle Production, Housing Starts, Construction Orders
         UK July Mortgage Approvals, Net Consumer Credit, Money Supply M4
         German Retail Sales
         Spain June Current Account, July Retail Sales
         Hong Kong July Retail Sales (demonstrations destroyed city center)
         Italy July Unemployment Rate, Q2 (F) GDP, Aug CPI, HICP, Q2 GDP
         India Q2 GDP, July Infrastructure Output
         South Africa July Trade Balance
         Eurozone Jul Unemployment Report/Change, Aug CPI
Friday,    Aug 30 US July Personal Income & Outlays/Savings Rate/PCE (8:30am et)
Canada June+Qtr GDP, Industrial Product & Raw Materials Price Indices, Budget Balance
Chicago Aug PMI  (9:45am et)
Brazil Jul Budget Balance, Debt-to-GDP Ratio
U.M. Final Aug. Consumer Sentiment (10am et)
Baker-Hughes US/North American Rig Count (1pm et)
USDA Farm Prices (3pm et)
US Memorial Day Weekend Exodus Begins
    OVERNIGHT into US Sat. a.m et:
         South Korea  Aug Trade Balance
Saturday, Aug 31/
China Aug Manufacturing, Non-Manufacturing + Composite PMI
Sunday,   Sept. 01 US Boosts 25% Tariffs on Chinese Imports to US to 30%, and Adds new 15% Tariffs on $160B of additional Chinese Imports to US
FASB start date for new rule forcing Lease Oligations to be accounted for on Balance Sheets, in Q4
    OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
        Aussie AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index, CBA Aug Mnftg PMI, CoreLogic House Price Index, Aug TD Securities Inflation/Sept Expectations, Q2 Corp. Profits & Inventories, ANZ Aug Job Ads, Commodity Index
        So. Korea Nikkei Aug Manufacturing PMI
        China Caixin Aug Manufacturing PMI
        Japan Aug Official Reserves, Q2 Capital Spending, Corporate Profits , Nikkei Mnftg PMI
        India Nikkei Aug Mnftg PMI
        Russia Markit Aug Mnftg PMI
        Swiss July Retail Sales, Aug Manufacturing PMI
        Markit Eurozone, Germany, Italy, Spain Aug Manufacturing PMI
        Hong Kong Fx Researves
        South Africa Aug Total Vehicle Sales
        ECB 'Mersch Keynotes ECB Legal Conference "Building Bridges-central banking law in an interconnected world" (8:45cet) ECB's Lautenschlager chairs panel "Autonomy of interpretations of Union law by the CJEU" @ECB Legal Conf (11:15cet)
Monday,  Sept 02 US National Holiday--Labor Day ALL US Markets CLOSED
Canada Labour Day Holiday, Banks & Markets Closed
ECB VP de Guindos panel chair "The application of national law by ECB" (14:00 cet) ECB's Couere chairs panel "Extraterritorial sanctions, central banks & financial services (15:45cet)  @ECB Legal Conference
Brazil Aug Trade Balance, Markit Mnftg PMI
BoE's Brazio speaks at Jt BoE/Edinburgh Futures Institute on "Sustaining Financial Resilience" (18:00gmt; Edinburgh)
Mexican Markit Aug Manufacturing PMI
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
        South Korea Q2 GDP, Aug CPI
        Aussie Q2 GDP, Current Account Balance, Jul Retail Sales
        RBA (Aussie) MPC Interest Rates Decision (09/03 local time)
        UK Markit Aug Manufacutring PMI, BRC Like-for-Like Sales
        Swiss Aug CPI, & SNB Presentation of New 100-Franc Note
        UK Markit/CIPS Aug Construction PMI
        Eurozone July PPI
        South Africa Mnftg PMI, Q2 GDP
Tuesday  Sept 03 US August Vehicle Sales (ex-GM & F)
Canada RBC Aug Manufacturing PMI
ECB's Enria panel chair "The institution of 'close cooperation' in the SSM" @ECB Legal Conference (13:30cet)
US Aug. Manufacturing PMI (9:45am et)
US ISM Manufacturing Index/Orders/Prices Paid/Employment Outlook (10am et)
US July Construction Spending & Annual Revisions
US Treasury Announces Value of 4-, & 8-week Bills to be Sold 09/05 (11am et)
US Treasury Auctions $45B 3-, & $42B 6-month Bills (11:30am et)
Fed's Rosengren on US Economy w/Q&A @Stonehill College (Easton MA 5pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
        Aussie Q2 GDP, Aug Performance of Services Index, CBA Services + Composite PMI, CapEx
        BoJ's Kataoka speaks (Hakodate)
        China Caixin Aug Services + Composite PMI
        India Nikkei Aug Services PMI
        South Africa Standard Bank Aug PMI
        Markit Eurozone, Germany, Italy, France, Aug Services+Composite PMI
        Ward's US Aug Vehicle Sales

       UK Markit/CIPS Aug Services+Composite PMI, Aug Official Reserves
        Eurozone Jul Retail Sales

        ECB's Enria introductory statement at ECON hearing of the EU Parliament (Brussels 9:00cet)
         ECB's Lane keynotes 50th Anniversary Conference "The Money, Macro & Finance Research Group (13:00cet London)
Wed.,      Sept 04 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Apps
UK Treasury Select Committee Hearing on August Inflation Report (14:15gmt)
ECB's Mersch hearing on his appointment as Vice Chair of ECB Supervisory Board @EU Parliament (Brussels 16:00cet)
ECB's Lane speaks (London)
US July Int'l Trade Deficit (8:30am et)
Former Fed Gov Donald Kohn @"Money Macro & Finance" 50th Anniversary Conference (London 17:00gmt)
ECB's de Guindos speaks at Annual US-EU Symposium hosted by Program on Int'l Financial Systems (PIFS; Frankfurt 18:30 cet) )
Canada Q2 Labor Productivity, Jul Int;l Trade Balance
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot (8:55am et)
Fed's Williams keynotes "Real Return XIII: The Inflation-Linked Products" Conference from Euromoney & Global Capital (9:30am et NY)
Brazil Markit Aug Services + Composite PMI
Fed Gov Bowman & Fed Pres Bullard host Fed Listens  (12:30pm St Louis FRB MO)
Bk of Canada MPC Interest Rate Decision
Fed's Beige Book released (2pm et)  
Fed's Evans opens "Forging a New Path for North American Trade: The Auto Sector" @FRB Chicago's Detroit branch (3:15pm edt thru 5th)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
         New Zealand Aug Volume of All Buildings
         Japan Aug Foreign Purchases of Japan Bonds & Stocks, Nikkei Services PMI
         Hong Kong Aug Nikkei Mnftg PMI (protests disrupted)
         Aussie Jul Trade Balance
         Swiss Q2 GDP
         Germany Jul Factory Orders
         ECB's de Guindos opens 4th Annual ECB Research Conference (@ECB Frankfurt)
         Markit Germany Aug Construction PMI
         SNB (Swiss) Chief Jordan speech "Wahrungen, Geld und digitale Token" (Currency, Money & digital Tokens"   Basel, Suisse)
         UK Aug New Car Registrations
Thurs.     Sept 05 Challnger Aug Job-Cut Report (7:30am et)
ADP Aug Private Sector Employment Report (8:15am et)
US weekly Jobless Claims/Continuing Claims  (8:30am et)
US Aug Chain Store Sales
Russia CPI, & Central Bank Fx Reserves
US Q2 non-Farm Productivity & Costs
US Services PMI
(9:45am et)
US July Factory Orders (10am et)
US Jul Final Durable Goods/Capital Goods Orders, Shipments
US Aug Non-Manufacturing ISM
BoE's Teneyro speaks @ ECB Research Conference  (Frankfurt)
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (10:30am et;  w/e 08/30)
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasonline/Distillates Report (11am et; w/e 08/30)
US Treasury Refunding Announcement (11am et)
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills (value not yet announced at post; 11:30am et)
BoC's Schembri Delivers Economic Progress Report
Fed weekly Balance Sheet & US weekly Money Supply (4:30pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
        Japan Jul Labor Cash Earnings, Overall Household Spending & Wage Income
        German Jul Industrial Production
        Eurozone Q2 GDP, Employment Report, Labor Costs, Gross Fixed Capital, Gov't Expenditureds. Household Consumption
        French July Current Account & Trade Balance
        Aussie Fx Reserves
        Italian Jul Retail Sales
        UK Halifax Aug House Prices, BoE/TNS Aug Inflation Expectations
        ECB's de Guindos speaks @45th Annual Forum on "Intelligence on the World, Europe, & Italy" hosted by Ambrosetti (11:15 cet; Cernobbia Italy)
        Brazil Aug IPCA Inflation Index SA, CPI
        Russian CBR Press Conference
Friday,    Sept 06 US Aug Unemployment Rate/Change/Participation/Ccontinuing Claims (8:30am et)
Canada Aug Employment Report/Change/Participation/Continuing Claims
US Census Quarterly Services Report  (10am et)
Canada/Ivey Aug PMI
Fed Chair Powell (stream) "Economic Outlook & Monetary Policy" discussed with SNB Chair Jordan hosted by Swiss Institute of Int'l Studies (12:30pm et Univ of Zurich Suisse)
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm et; w/e 08/30)
Saturday,Sept 07 China Aug. Fx Reserves
      WEEKS AHEAD:  09/
12  ECB MPC Meets
                               09/17--18  FOMC Meets, Member Forecasts Updated, Powell Presser
                                      09/19  BoE MPC Meets
                                                 SNB MPC Meets
                                                 BoJ MPC Meets
                                                 Norges Bk (Norway) MPC Meets
                                    09/24    RBNZ (New Zealand) MPC Meets
                                    09/28    Bk of Mexico MPC MEets

*FOMC 2019 Voting Members:  Chairperson Jerome Powell, as of 02/05/18, and ALL members of the FOMC Board of Governors are permanent voters: That includes Randall Quarles, & Lael Brainard, newly (Sept) sworn in Richard Clarida, plus New York Fed Pres, currently John Williams (Formerly of the San Francisco Fed) who replaced William Dudley, who retired from the bank on June 15, 2018.:New, revolving Regional Fed Bank leaders who are voters for 2018: Atlanta Fed Pres. Raphael Bostic, new in August 2017 (replaced Dennis Lockhart), former McKinsey exec Thomas Barkin, who assumed the title of Pres of Richmond Fed on 01/01/18. San Francisco Fed named Mary Daly Pres/CEO as of 10/1/2018, who'll be a voter until Feb. The hole in the San Francisco Fed's hierarchy resulted in Esther George--a very vocal hawk--becoming a voting member of the FOMC, but she steps aside as of Mary Daly's swearing in, and returns as a voter in Feb 2019. Cleveland Fed's voter, Loretta Mester, a hawk, who wants rates raised at a quicker pace because she believes the Fed has, already, fallen behind the curve.  Richmond wound up with an opening, after Jeff Lacker resigned, in early April 2017, when it became known he'd (unintentionally) leaked sensitive FOMC discussions to Medley Advisors. Richmond operated with an Interim Pres, Mark L Mullinix, while searching for its new leader, Thomas Barkin, who arrived Jan 1st 2018.. Dissenters at the Dec. 2017 Meeting, Neel Kashkari & Charles Evans, are no longer voters in 2018.
               * HICP used in Europe, means Harmonized Index of Consumer Price