wall street in advance

February 2019  Economic Statistics
and Other Economic Influences

                Weekly Chain Store Sales*
                 Average Hourly Earnings*
                 API Weekly Gas/Oil Stockpiles Report*  **
Mortgage Applications  Data
                 EIA Weekly Report on Gas & Oil Stockpiles* (10a.m.)
                 Weekly Unemployment Report*
                  Weekly Mutual Fund Flows*
                   Natural Gas Storage Levels* (a.m.)

 *Except Holidays    ** As of 1/09         All Dates Subject to Change:
Sunday,   Feb 03 Fed's Kashkari participates at Town Hall Q&A (Long Lake MN)
    OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
        New Zealand Dec Building Permits
        Aussie Dec Building Approvals
        Eurozone Feb Sentix Investor Confidence
        UK Markit/CIPS Jan Construction PMI
        Italy Jan CPI & HICP
        Singapore Jan Manufacturing PMI
        Eurozone Dec PPI
        Spain Unemployment Rate

ASIA celebrates the Lunar New Year most of the week, China all week, with markets & factories closed. Only Rails & Airlines are functioning normally all week

Data from US Federal Agencies will arrive only as ready, since the shutdown ended.
Monday, Feb 04 US Jan Motor Vehicle Sales
US Dec Factory Orders
US Dec Durable Goods Orders/Shipments (if the data is ready, since shutdown ended)
Conference Board's Jan Employment Trends Index
US Treasury Auctions $45B 3-, & $39B 6-month  Bills
TD Ameritrade IMX
Fed's Mester on eco outlook & monetary policy at 50 Club of Cleveland Annual (7:30pm)
South Korea, China, Hong Kong, Singapore CLOSED for Lunar New Year
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:

         Aussie AiG Jan Performance of Services, CBA Services & Composite PMI
         New Zealand ANZ Jan Commodity Prices
         Aussie Dec Trade Balance, Retail Sales
         RBA (Aussie) MPC Rate Decision
         Japan Nikkei Jan Services & Composite PMI
         Eurozone, France, Italy, Germany Markit Jan Services & Composite PMI
         Riksbank Gov Ingves at hearing on financial stability @Riksdag Cmte on Finance
         UK Markit/CIPS Jan Services & Composite PMI, Retail Sales, Official Fx Reserves
         Eurozone Dec Retail Sales
Tuesday,  Feb 05 Redbook weekly store sales snapshot
US Jan Markit Services & Composite PMI
ISM Jan US non-Manufacturing Index
Canada Dec Trade Balance
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills (11am et values to be announced)
US Treasury Auctions $38B 3-yr Notes (1pm et)
New Year Holidays in China, So Korea, Singapore Hong Kong

    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
        RBA's Lowe speaks
        German Dec Factory Orders, Markit Jan Contruction PMI
        Central Bank of India Interest Rate & REPO Rate Decision, Cash Reserve Ratio
        Riksbank Dpty Gov Jochnick panelist on Banking Union (Stockholm)
        EU Economic Forecasts
Wed.,       Feb 06 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance applications
Brazil Markit Jan Services & Composite PMI
US Dec Int'l Trade Deficit (if ready after shutdown ended)
US Dec Retail Sales?
US Q4 GDP? PCE? (if ready since US gov't shutdown ended)

Canada Dec Building Permits + Ivey Jan PMI
18Q4 US Productivity & Costs
Brazil Jan Auto Production & Sales
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Report (w/e 02/01)
US Treasury Auctions $27B 10-year Notes (1pm et)
Brazil MPC Interest Rate Decision  (current 6.5%)
BoC Dpty Gov Lane  speech on "Canadian Approach to Foreign Reserve Mgnmnt" @ Peterson Institute for Int'l Economics (D.C.)
Holidays in China, So Korea, Singapore Hong Kong + New Zealand
Fed's Powell opens, & answer questions via livestream, to Fed Bk of Richmond Charlotte branch, "Conversation with the Chairman: a Teacher Town Hall Meeting" (7pm)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs a.m. et:
        Aussie AiG Jan Performance of Construction Index, NAB Q4 Business Confidence
        New Zealand Q4 Unemployment Rate/Change/Participation/Labor Costs
        German Dec Industrial Production, Trade Balance
        French Dec Current Account, Trade Balance
        Spain Dec Industrial Production
        Italy Dec Retail Sales
        Swiss UBS Q4 Real Estate Bubble Index, Jan Fx Reserves
        UK Jan Halifax House Price Index
        BoE MPC sets Interest Rates. Asset Purchase Targets, Issues Inflation Report
        ECB's Mersch speaks @ American European Community Association (Brussels)
Thurs.      Feb 07 BoE Gov Carney post-meeting Press Conference
US weekly Jobless Claims
Mexico Jan CPI
Pres Trump former personal attorney, Michael Cohen testimony @ US House cancelled
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills (11:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $19B 30-year Bonds (1pm et)
US Dec Consumer Credit (3pm et; debt really)
Bank of Mexico MPC Sets Interest & Overnight Rates
Fed weekly Reserve Bank Balance Sheet & US Weekly Money Supply
China Holiday
Fed's Bullard on US economy & monetary policy @ St Cloud State Univ w/Q&A (MN 7:30pm)
China remains closed for Golden Week/Lunar NewYear
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
        Japan Dec Current Account Balance/Trade Balance, Q4 Housing Loans, Overall Lending, Labor Cash Earnings, Jan Bankruptcies, Dec Household Spending
        Hong Kong Jan Manufacturing PMI
        Swiss Jan Unemployment Rate
        French Q4 Unemployment Rate/Change, Dec Industrial Production
        Russian Central Bank Feb Interest Rate Decision
        German Dec Trade Balance
Friday,     Feb 08 Canada Jan Unemployment Rate/Change/Participation, Housing Starts
US Dec Wholesale Inventories (if ready since Gov't shutdown ended)
Fed's Bullard on US Economy & Monetary Policy @57th Winter Institute hosted by Center for Economic Education (Saint Cloud MN)
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm et)
US WASDE Report (if ready, since shutdown ended)
Sat.          Feb 09 China Spring Festival--Holiday
Sun.          Feb 10     OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
         China Jan. New Yuan Loans & Aggregate Financing, Foreign Direct Investment, + Money Supply
          Hong Kong Jan Fx Reserves
          Swiss Jan CPI
          UK 18Q4 GDP, Total Business Investment, Private Consumption, Goverment Spending,  Dec Trade Balance, Industrial & Manufacturing Production, Construction Output, Index of Services, NIESR Jan GDP Estimate
          Russian Trade Balance
          ECB VP de Guidos speaks @ Deusto Business School (Madrid Spain)
          MBA Q4 Mortgage Delinquencies/Foreclosures
Monday,   Feb 11 US Revisions to CPI
Canada Trade Balance
Mexican Dec Industrial Production
US Treasury Auctions $45B  3-, & $39B 6-month Bills
Japan Holiday--National Founding Day
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
         New Zealand  Jan Card Spending
         Aussie Dec Home Loans, Value of All Loans, NAB Jan Biz Conditions/Confidence
         Japan Dec Tertiary Industry Index, Jan (P) Machine Tool Orders
         Singapore Dec Retail Sales
         South Africa 18Q4 Unemployment Rate, Dec Manufacturing Production
         India Dec & Cumulative Industrial Production, Manufacturing Output
         South Korea Jan Unemployment Rate
Tuesday,   Feb 12 US Revises PPI
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (6am et)
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot
Fed's JOLTS (Job Turnover & Quits)
Fed's George on "Charting America's Economic Course" @ KC Public Library (5:30pm)
Fed's Mester on eco outlook & monetary policy @ Xavier Univ & Financial Executives Int'l Cincinnati Chapter (OH 6:30pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
         New Zealand Jan QV House Prices
         Japam Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index, Jan PPI
         German JanWholesale Price Index
         RBNZ (New Zealand) MPC Rate Decision, Official Cash Rate (13th local time)
         UK Jan CPI, Retail Price Index, PPI, House Price Index
         Riksbank (Sweden) MPC Rate Decision & Policy Statement
(13th local time)
         Eurozone Dec Industrial Production
         Brazil Dec Retail Sales
         South Africa Dec Retail Sales
         IEA Monhly Report
Wed.         Feb 13 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Apps
Fed's Bostic on Eco Oulook & Monetary Policy before European Financial Forum (Dublin, Ireland 7:15am et)
Canada Teranet/Nat'l Bank Jan Home Price Index
US Jan CPI (8:30am et)
Fed's Mester "A View from the Federal Reserve" @ "What's Next for Kentucky in the Global Economy" hosted by U of KY Galton College of Business & Economics (850am et)
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Report (10:30am et  w/e 02/08)
Fed's Harker on Eco Outlook @ Jewish Business Network Powr Lunch (Philadelphia)
US Monthly Treasury Budget (2pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
         New Zealand Jan Food Prices
         Japan 18Q4 GDP/Private Consumption/Business Spending
         China Jan Imports/Exports, Trade Balance
         UK RICS Jan House Price Balance
         India Jan WPI Food, Fuel, Consumer Inflation
         French 18Q4 Unemployment Rate
         German 18Q4 GDP

         Swiss Jan Producer & Import Prices
         South Africa Dec Gold & Mining Production
         Eurozone 18Q4 Employment, GDP
         Canada Dec Manufacturing Sales, Housing Price Index 
Thursday, Feb 14 US weekly Jobless Claims
US Jan PPI-FD (8:30am et)
US Dec. '18 Retail Sales (Delayed until today)
US Nov Business Inventories (shutdown delayed  10am et)
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (w/e 02/08)
US Treasury Refunding Announcement (11am et)
US Treasury Auctions 4-wk & 8-wk Bills (11:30am et)
Fed's Harker on "Approaches to Leadership" @ 3rd Lerner MBA Student Ass'n Conf (Newark DE)
Fed Reserve Bk Balance Sheet & US Money Supply (4:30pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
         29th Australian & New Zealand Econonmetric Study Group Meeting (to 15th Wellington)
        RBA's Kent speaks (Melbourne)
        Norsk (Norway) Gov Olsen Annual Policy/Sovereign Wealth Fund Address (Oslo)
        New Zealand Jan Business Manufacturing
        China's BoP 18Q4 Current Account Balance, Jan CPI  + PPI
        Singapore 18Q4 GDP
        Japan Dec Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization
        Italy Dec Trade Balance
        Spain Jan CPI + HICP
        EU 25 Jan New Car Registrations
        UK Jan Retail Sales

        Eurozone Dec Trade Balance
        Canada Dec International Securities Transactions
Friday,      Feb 15 Empire State Feb Manufacturing Survey (8:30am et)
US Jan Import/Export Prices
Canada Jan Existing Home Sales
US Jan Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization (9:15am et)
Fed's Bostic on "Workforce Development"  @ Public Affairs Research Council of Alabama w/Q&A (Birmingham AL 9:55am)
U.M. Interim Feb Consumer Sentiment (10am et)
ECB's Coeure @ C. Peter McCol,ough Series on Int'l Economics from Council on Foreign Relations (NY)
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm et)
Fed's Daly speaks @ Economic Forecast Conference (1:15pm et)
Saturday,  Feb 16

  02/20     FOMC Jan 29--30 Meeting Minutes
                                       02/22      Fed's Bullard panelist on "The Future of the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet" at U of Chicago Booth School fo Biz Initiative on Global Markets
                                      03/06       NY Fed's Williams speaks @ Economic Club of NY (11:30am--2pm)
                                                      Fed's Beige Book
                                                      BoC MPC Interest Rate Decision
                                                      ECB Monetary Policy Release, Draghi Press Conference
                                      03/15       BoJ MPC Meeting
                                03/19--20     FOMC Meets

*FOMC 2018 Voting Members:  Chairperson Jerome Powell, as of 02/05/18, and ALL members of the FOMC Board of Governors are permanent voters: That includes Randall Quarles, & Lael Brainard, newly (Sept) sworn in Richard Clarida, plus New York Fed Pres, currently John Williams (Formerly of the San Francisco Fed) who replaced William Dudley, who retired from the bank on June 15, 2018.:New, revolving Regional Fed Bank leaders who are voters for 2018: Atlanta Fed Pres. Raphael Bostic, new in August 2017 (replaced Dennis Lockhart), former McKinsey exec Thomas Barkin, who assumed the title of Pres of Richmond Fed on 01/01/18, plus San Francisco Fed, without a leader, since Williams left for NY in July, named Mary Daly Pres/CEO as of 10/1/2018, who'll be a voter until Feb. The hole in the San Francisco Fed's hierarchy resulted in Esther George--a very vocal hawk--becoming a voting member of the FOMC, but she steps aside as of Mary Daly's swearing in, and returns as a voter in Feb 2019. Cleveland Fed's voter, Loretta Mester, a hawk, who wants rates raised at a quicker pace because she believes the Fed has, already, fallen behind the curve.  Richmond wound up with an opening, after Jeff Lacker resigned, in early April 2017, when it became known he'd (unintentionally) leaked sensitive FOMC discussions to Medley Advisors. Richmond operated with an Interim Pres, Mark L Mullinix, while searching for its new leader, Thomas Barkin, who arrived Jan 1st 2018.. Dissenters at the Dec. 2017 Meeting, Neel Kashkari & Charles Evans, are no longer voters in 2018.
               * HICP used in Europe, means Harmonized Index of Consumer Price