wall street in advance

January 2019  Economic Statistics
and Other Economic Influences

                Weekly Chain Store Sales*
                 Average Hourly Earnings*
                 API Weekly Gas/Oil Stockpiles Report*  **
Mortgage Applications  Data
                 EIA Weekly Report on Gas & Oil Stockpiles* (10a.m.)
                 Weekly Unemployment Report*
                  Weekly Mutual Fund Flows*
                   Natural Gas Storage Levels* (a.m.)

 *Except Holidays    ** As of 1/09         All Dates Subject to Change:
Sun.           Dec 30     OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et
        Aussie Nov Private Sector & Housing Credit
        South Korea Dec CPI
        China Dec Manufacturing, Non-Manufacturing & Composite PMI
        Singapore Nov Bank Lending
        India Nov Federal Fiscal Deficit, foreign Debt, Infrastructure Output
        Brazil Q1 Long-term Interest Rate
Monday,   Dec 31 Calendar Year 2018 Ends
Worldwide Markets Either Close Early or Do Not Open at All
Dallas Fed Dec Manufacturing Survey (10:30am)
US Treasury Auctions $36B 3-, & $26B 6-month Bills (11am)
US Treasury Auctions $26B 52-week Bills (11:30am)
US Bond Market Closes 2pm
US Equities Trade Full Day to 4pm et
Tuesday,   Jan 01 New Year's Day 2019
Holiday Worldwide

Brazil's New President, Jair Bolsonaro, Inaugurated
Some US Gov't Data Will Be Delayed Until the Federal Goverment Reopens
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et
         Aussie CBA Dec Manufacturing & Composite PMI + CoreLogic HPI
         South Korea Dec Trade Balance, Nikkei Manufacturing PMI
         Singapore Q4 GDP & URA Property Index
         German Nov Retail Sales
         China Caixin Dec Manufacturing PMI
         UK Markit/CIPS Dec Manufacturing PMI

Wed.         Jan 02 Redbook weekly store sales snapshot
US (Adv) Nov Trade Balance
US Nov Wholesale Inventories
US Manufacturing PMI (9:45am)
Brazil Fx Flows & Dec Trade Balance
Mexico Markit Dec Manufacturing PMI
Holidays in Switzerland, New Zealand, Russia & Japan
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et
         India Nikkei/Markit Dec Manufacturing PMI
         Eurozone, Italy, France, German, Swiss, Spanish Dec Manufacturing PMI
         Swiss SVME Dec PMI
         UK Markit/CIPS Dec Construction PMI
         Wards Dec Total US New Vehicle Sales
Thursday, Jan 03 US December 2018 Motor Vehicle Sales
MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications (always slowest week of yr)
New US Congress Sworn In--Pelosi likely returns as Speaker of the House
Challenger Dec 2018 Job Cut Report (7:30am et)
ADP December Private Company Dec. Employment Report  (8:15am et)
US weekly Jobless Claims (8:30am et; Issued last week so likely this week, as well)
Dec. US ISM Manufacturing Index/Employment/Prices Paid/New Orders (10am)
US Refunding Announcement (11am et)
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills (amounts not known, yet)
Fed Reserve Bank weekly Balance Sheet & US weekly Money Supply (4:30pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri a.m. et:
        Aussie Dec Services PMI & Global Dairy Index
        Japan Dec Official Fx Reserves, Dec Nikkei Manufacturing PMI
        China Caixin Dec  Services & Composite PMI
        Singapore Dec Manufacturing PMI
        Spain Unemployment Rate/Change
        UK BRC Dec Shop Price Index, Markit/CIPS Services & Composite PMI
        Markit Eurozone, France, Italy, German Dec Services & Composite PMI

        Hong Kong Nov Retail Sales & Dec Manufacturing PMI
        German Dec Unemployment Rate/Claims
        UK Nov Net Consumer Credit, Lending for Dwellings, Mortgage Approvals, Dec Nationwide HPI,  Money Supply, + Official Fx Reserves
        Eurozone, France, Spain, Italy, Germany Nov PPI & Dec CPI & HICP
        India Bank Loan & Deposit Growth, Fx Reserves      
        Brazil Markit Dec Services & Composite PMI
Friday,      Jan 04 US Dec 2018 Unemployment Rate/Change/Participation (Gov't Shut down impact might be no release?)
Canada Dec Employment Report/Change/Participation/Wages
US Dec. Markit Services PMI
Canada Nov Raw Materials & Industrial Price Indices
FOMC Chief Powell panelist w/Ben Bernanke & Janet Yellen @AEA "US Federal Reserve: Joint Interview" (10:15am Atlanta GA)
Fed's Barkin on "The Outlook for Growth" @ Maryland Bankers Ass'n 1st Friday Economic Outlook
Fed's Bostic panelist on "Long-Run Macroeconomic Performance: A Multi-Faceted Perspective" AEA/Allied Social Science Ass'n Jt Mtg (10:15am Atlanta)
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (10:30am et; w/e 12/28)
EIA Weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Report (11am et)
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm et)
     OVERNIGHT into US Sat a.m. et:
         French Nov Trade Balance
Saturday, Jan 05 Fed's Williams on "Monetary Policy Frameworks & Effective Lower Bound on Interest Rates" @ AEA
Fed's Daly panelist on "What's Next? Moving Beyond Research Results to an Inclusive Classroom" (10:15am et), + Speaks at AEA LGBTQ Luncheon @ AEA/ ASSA Jt Mtg 
Fed's Bostic panelist on "The Future of Traditional Banking" @ AEA
Fed's Harker Speaks
French Nov Trade Balance
Sunday,    Jan 06 Canada Nov Industrial Product Price Index
US Trade Delegation leaves for Bejing for 2-days of hi-level trade talks
    OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
         Aussie Dec Performance of Manufacturing Index
         Japan Nov Loans & Discounts, Dec End Monetary Base
         China Dec Fx Reserves & Imports
         German Nov Factory Orders & Retail Sales

         Italy Q3 Public Debt
         Eurozone Sentix Jan Investor Confidence & Nov Retail Sales
Monday,  Jan 07 US Nov Factory Orders
US Nov Retail & Wholesale Inventories
US/China to hold hi-ministerial trade talks in Beijing (thru 8th)
US Nov (F) Durable Goods Orders/Shipments

US Nov Construction Spending
US Nov Int'l Trade Deficit
Nov New Home Sales
ISM US Dec Non-Manufacturing Index
Canada Ivey Dec PMI
Fed's Bostic fireside chat @ Rotary Club of Atlanta
US Treasury Auctions $39B 3-, & $36B 6-month Bills
TD Ameritrade IMX (12:30pm et)
Holiday in Russia
     OVERNIGHT into US Tues a.m. et:
          Aussie Nov Trade Balance, Dec Performance of Services
          New Zealand ANZ Job Ads, Dec Fx Reserves
          Japan Dec Nikkei Services & Composite PMI & Dec Vehicle Sales
          Swiss Dec Unemployment Rate + Retail Sales
          German Nov Industrial Production, Markit Dec Construction PMI
          French Nov Current Account + Trade Balance
          UK Halifax Dec House Price Index, New Car Registrations
          Eurozone Dec Business, Industrial, & Consumer Climate + Sentiment Surveys
Tuesday,  Jan 08 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (6am et)
Canada  Nov Int'l Trade Balance
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot (includes post-Xmas sales & New Year)
Fed's Nov JOLTS (Job Turnover, Openings, & Quits)
Brazil Nov Industrial & Dec Auto Production
South Africa Dec Total Vehicle Sales
US Treasury Auctions $38B 3-year Notes (1pm et)
US Nov Consumer Credit (3pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
         New Zealand Jan ANZ Commodity Prices
         Japan Nov Labor Cash Earnings
         Aussie Nov Building Approvals, Job Vacancies, AiG Services Index
         South Korea Dec Unemployment Rate
         German Nov Trade Balance
         Swedish Central Bank MPC Meeting Minutes
         Swiss Dec CPI
        Italy Nov Unemployment Rate
         Eurozone Nov Unemployment Rate
         UK NIESR GDP Estimate

Wed.,       Jan 09 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications
Canada Dec Housing Starts
Fed's Bostic on Eco Outlok @ Chattanooga Chamber Commerce (8:20am et)
Fed's Evans on Eco Conditions & Monetary Policy @ Discover Financial Services Meeting (9am et)
BoE Gov Carney online Q&A on "Let's Decide the Future of Money"
BoC (Canada) MPC Interest Rate Announcement & Monetary Policy Report
BoC Gov Poloz & Dpty Wilkins post-Meeting Press Conference
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Stats (10:30am et)
Fed's Rosengren on Eco Outlook @ Boston Economic Club  (11:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $24B reopened 10-year Notes
FOMC Minutes of Dec 18--19, 2018 Meeting
at which it raised rates (2pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et
         Japan Fx Reserves
         Aussie NAB Business Confidence
         Swiss Q4 Real Estate Index of Family Homes
         China Dec Money Supply, New Yuan Loans & Aggregate Financing
         UK BRC Dec Like-for-Like Sales & RICS Dec House Price Balance
         China Dec PPI, CPI, Industrial Production

         Swiss Dec Unemployment Rate
         French Nov Industrial Production
         Italy Nov Retail Sales
         South Africa Nov Manufacturing Production
         ECB  Publishes Account of Dec. Monetary Policy Meeting
         Russia Fx Reserves
Thurs.      Jan 10 US weekly Jobless Claims
Canada Nov New Housing Price Index, Building Permits
Dec US Chain Store Sales Release
(Holiday season)
Fed's Barkin speaks to Greater Raleigh Chamber of Commerce  (8:35am et)
Brookings Institution '10 years later:Lessons from the 2008-09 financial crisis' speakers include Peter Orszag, Carmen Reinhart, Larry Summers, and more (9am)
US Dec Wholesale Trade (10am et)
US New Home Sales (approx date)
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (w/e 01/04)
US Treasury Auctions 4-wk & 8-wk Bills (11:30am et; amount not yet known)
Fed's Bullard on Eco & Monetary Policy @ Little Rock Chamber of Commerce (12:30;pm et)
Fed's Evans on current Eco Conditions & Monetary Policy  @ Milwaukee Business Journal Economic Forecast Event  (1pm et)
US Treasury Auctions $16B reopened 30-year Bonds (1pm et)
Fed's weekly Balance Sheet & Money Supply (4:30pm et)
Fed V.Chair Clarida speaks to Money Marketeers of NY  (5:30pm est)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
         French MPC de Galhau on European Economic Prospects in 2019
         Aussie AiG Dec Construction Index
         New Zealand Nov Building Permits
         South Korea Dec Unemployment Rate
         Japan Nov Current Account   Balance, Trade Balance, Dec Bank & Trust Lending, Eco Watchers Dec Current Survey, Nov Household Spending
         China Dec Foreign Direct Investment
         Aussie Nov Retail Sales
         Singapore Retail Sales
         Spain & Italy Nov Industrial Production
         UK Nov Trade Balance, Industrial +  Manufacing Production, Construction Output, Nov GDP
         ECB's Mersch, Nowotny & Makuch at Eco Conferenc to mark Slovakia's 10th Euro Adoption Annivesary
         India Nov Industrial Production
Friday,     Jan 11 US Dec CPI , Real Avg Weekly Earnings (830am et)
Mexico Nov Industrial Prolduction
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm et)
WASDE Report probably delayed by partial gov't shutdown
Fed's George on Eco & Monetary Policy before The Central Exchange
US Treasury Budget Released (2pm et with 800K workers not being paid, for now)
Sat.         Jan 12

      WEEKS AHEAD: Jan. 21, 2019
   Martin Luther King  Jr US Holiday ALL Markets Closed
                                        01/23    BoJ MPC Meets
                                        01/24    ECB MPC Meets
                                                    Norges MPC Meets
                                        01/29    FOMC 2-day Meeting Starts
                                        01/30    FOMC Meeting Statement & Powell Press Conference
*FOMC 2018 Voting Members:  Chairperson Jerome Powell, as of 02/05/18, and ALL members of the FOMC Board of Governors are permanent voters: That includes Randall Quarles, & Lael Brainard, newly (Sept) sworn in Richard Clarida, plus New York Fed Pres, currently John Williams (Formerly of the San Francisco Fed) who replaced William Dudley, who retired from the bank on June 15, 2018.:New, revolving Regional Fed Bank leaders who are voters for 2018: Atlanta Fed Pres. Raphael Bostic, new in August 2017 (replaced Dennis Lockhart), former McKinsey exec Thomas Barkin, who assumed the title of Pres of Richmond Fed on 01/01/18, plus San Francisco Fed, without a leader, since Williams left for NY in July, named Mary Daly Pres/CEO as of 10/1/2018, who'll be a voter until Feb. The hole in the San Francisco Fed's hierarchy resulted in Esther George--a very vocal hawk--becoming a voting member of the FOMC, but she steps aside as of Mary Daly's swearing in, and returns as a voter in Feb 2019. Cleveland Fed's voter, Loretta Mester, a hawk, who wants rates raised at a quicker pace because she believes the Fed has, already, fallen behind the curve.  Richmond wound up with an opening, after Jeff Lacker resigned, in early April 2017, when it became known he'd (unintentionally) leaked sensitive FOMC discussions to Medley Advisors. Richmond operated with an Interim Pres, Mark L Mullinix, while searching for its new leader, Thomas Barkin, who arrived Jan 1st 2018.. Dissenters at the Dec. 2017 Meeting, Neel Kashkari & Charles Evans, are no longer voters in 2018.
               * HICP used in Europe, means Harmonized Index of Consumer Price