wall street in advance

March 2019  Economic Statistics
and Other Economic Influences

                Weekly Chain Store Sales*
                 Average Hourly Earnings*
                 API Weekly Gas/Oil Stockpiles Report*  **
Mortgage Applications  Data
                 EIA Weekly Report on Gas & Oil Stockpiles* (10a.m.)
                 Weekly Unemployment Report*
                  Weekly Mutual Fund Flows*
                   Natural Gas Storage Levels* (a.m.)

 *Except Holidays    ** As of 1/09         All Dates Subject to Change:
Sunday,    Mar 03 Italian Elections will, ultimately, determine who runs the government
German Social Democrats announce whether they've agreed to a coalition with Merkel?
CFTC's Giancarlo (+ more) speak at IIB Annual Institute of Int'l Bankers Conference (D.C. thru 6th)
    OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
         Aussie CBA Feb Services & Composite PMI
         China Xi JingPing press statement before opening the Nat'l People's Congress Begins (Beijing thru 9th)
         Caixin China Feb Services & Composite PMI
Monday,  Mar 04 Jan US Retail Inventories
US Dec Construction Spending
(10am et)
Jan US Durable Goods Orders/Shipments
US Treasury Auctions $48B 3-, & $39B 6-month Bills (11:30am et)
TD Ameritrade IMX (12:30pm est)
Brazil Holiday--Carnivale
India Holiday
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues a.m. et
         Aussie TD Securities Feb Inflation, Feb CBA Services & Composite PMI, Q4 Current Account Balance
         South Korea 18Q4 GDP, Feb CPI
         New Zealand ANZ Feb Commodity Price
         Hong Kong Feb Manufacturing PMI
         Nikkei Feb Japan Services & Composite PMI
         China Caixin Feb Services & Composite PMI

         China Premier Xi Press Conference pre-Opening of NPC
         China National Peoples Congress
(Tues. local time, thru 8th)
         RBA (Aussie) MPC Decision, March Cash Target Rate (03/05 local time)
         Swedish Dpty Gov Skingsley panelist on possible introduction of digital currency
         So Africa Standard Bank Feb PMI, 18Q4 GDP
         SNB (Swiss Central Bank) FY18 Results, Swiss Feb CPI
         Eurozone Sentix Mar Investor Confidence, Jan PPI, Retail Sales
         Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, Spain Feb Services & Composite PMI
         Italy 18Q4 GDP
         UK Markit/CIPS Feb Services, Composite PMI, BRC Feb Like-for- Like Sales, New Car Registrations, Official Fx Reserves
Tuesday,  Mar 05 Fed's Rosengren on current economic landscape @ Nat'l Ass'n of Corporate Directors; New England Chapter (Boston MA 7:30am et)
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot
US Dec Construction Spending
US Feb Services & Composite PMI  (9:45am et)
US Dec New Home Sales (10am et)
US Feb ISM non-Manufacturing Index/Employment/Prices 
US Treasury Budget (2pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
        RBA Gov Lowe
speaks (Sydney), Q4 GDP, CapEx, Price Index, Consumption 
        BoJ's Harada speaks (Kofu)
        So Korea Feb Fx Reserves
        Markit German Feb Construction PMI
        BoE Financial Policy Statement of Feb. 26th  Meeting
        BoE's Saunders speaks @ Imperial College (London)
        BoE Dpty Gov Cunliffe speaks @ LSESU (London Sschool of Eeconomics Student Union) Economic Symposium, "The Next Great Crisis"
Wed.,       Mar 06 MBA Mortgage/Refinance Applications (7am et)
ADP Feb private sector Employment Report (8:15am et)
US Dec Int'l Trade Deficit  (8:30am)
Canada Dec Trade Balance & Q4 Labor Productivity
Jan Factory Orders
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates (10:30am et  w/e 03/01)
Canada Ivey Feb PMI
Brazil Auto Production/Sales
BoE's Economist Haldane hosts 1st "Citizens Panel" (Hull England)
Fed's Mester participant in moderated Q&A @Columbus Partnership (noon Columbus OH)
Fed's Williams on "The Economic Outlook: The 'New Normal' is Now" @Economic Club of  NY w/Q&A (12:10 pm et)
Bk of Canada MPC Interest Rate Decision Announced
Fed's Beige Book (2pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs a.m. et:
         Aussie Feb Performance of Construction Index, Jan Trade Balance & Retail Sales, Feb Fx Reserves
         China Feb Fx Reserves
         Swiss Feb Unemployment Rate, Fx Reserves
         UK Halifax Feb House Prices, RICS House Price Balance
         So Africa Feb Fx Reserves Report/Change, 18Q4 Current Account
         Hong Kong Fx Reserves
         Italy Jan Retail Sales
         Eurozone 18Q4 Unemployment, GDP, Gross Fixed Capital, Gov't Expenditure, Housheold Consumption
         ECB MPC Rate Decision, Deposit Facility, QE, (possibly adds back support?  Frankfurt DE  03/07 local time)        
Thurs.      Mar 07 ECB Chief Draghi post-Meeting Press Conference (7:30am et?)
Challenger Feb US Job-Cut Report (7:30am et)
US weekly Jobless Claims (8:30am et)
US 18Q4 Productivity & Costs
Brazil Markit Feb Services & Composite PMI
Canada Jan Building Permits
Mexico Feb CPI
OECD Interim Economic Outlook
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (10:30am et)
US Treasury Refunding Announcement incl. 30-yr Bonds (11am et)
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills (11:30am; value not announced at post)
US Jan Consumer Credit (3pm et)
Fed weekly Balance Sheet + US Money Supply (4:30pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri a.m. et:
         New Zealand 18Q4 Manufacturing Activity, Volume of All Buildings
         So Korea Jan Current Account
         Japan 18Q4 GDP, Jan Household Spending. Current Account Balance, CapEx, Trade Balance, Bank Lending, Eco Watchers Survey Feb Current Conditions, Outlook
         China Feb Trade Balance
         German Jan Factory Orders
         Italy Jan PPI, Industrial Production
         French Jan Trade Balance, Current Account
         Spain Jan Industrial Production
Friday,      Mar 08 US Feb Unemployment Report/Continuing Claims/Participation/Labor Costs (8:30am et)
Jan US Wholesale Inventories/Sales
US Jan Housing Starts/Building Permits
Canada Feb Unemployment Rate/Change/Participation/Wages/Full-Pt-Time, Housing Starts
Fed's Daly participant @ Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Brookings D.C. 10am)
WASDE Report
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm et)
Fed Gov Powell on Monetary Policy Normalization prior to 2019 SIEPR Economic Summit Dinner (9pm et Stanford CA)
    OVERNIGHT into US Sat. a.m. et:
        ECB's Nowotny
speaks (Prague)
        ECB's Mersch at "Let's Talk Europe" conference by EU Commission reps (Luxembourg)
Sat.          Mar 09 China Feb CPI & PPI
Move Clocks Ahead by One Hour before going to sleep
Sun.          Mar 10 FOMC Chief Powell on "60 Minutes" (CBS TV 7pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Mon a.m. et:
         China Feb Money Supply, New Yuan Loans, China Direct Foreign Investment
         New Zealand Feb Card Spending
         Aussie Q2 Manpower Survey
         Canada Jan Trade Balance
         Japan Feb Machine Tool Orders
         German Jan Indusrial Production, Trade Balance, Current Account
         Eurogroup Meetings (03/11 local time)
         Eurozone 18Q4 Labor Costs
         BoE MPC Haskel speaks @ Univ. of Birmingham (UK)
Monday,   Mar 11 US  Jan Retail Sales (8:30am eT)
US Dec Business Inventories
Brazil Feb Auto Production/Sales
US Treasury Auctions $48B 3-, & $39B 6-month Bills (11:30am)
US Treasury Auctions $38B 3-year Notes (1pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues a.m. et
         Q1 Japan BSI Large Industray/Manufacturing, Q2 Manpower Survey
         Aussie Feb NAB Business Confidence/Conditions, Jan Home Loans/All Loans
         RBA MPC's Debelle speaks (Sydney)
         Singapore Jan Retail Sales
         France 18Q4 non-Farm Payrolls
         UK Jan NIESR GDP, Trade Balance
, Construction Output, Industrial & Manufacturing Production, Index of Services
         EU FinMins Meet
         NFIB US Small Business Optimism Index
(6am et)
         India Jan Industrial Production/Manufacturers Output
         Central Bankers from EU, Netherlands, Sweden, Australia, Mexico & Chile speak at Swiss Financial Conference (Basel thru 13th)
         BoE Minutes of MPC Meeting 02/26   (03/12 local time)
         UK Parliament 2nd Vote on PM May's Brexit Deal
Tuesday,  Mar 12 US Feb CPI (8:30am et)
US Real Avg Hourly & Weekly Earnings
Brazil Feb CPI
FIA 44th Int'l Futures Industry Conference (Boca Raton FL thru 13th)
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot
CFTC Chair Giancarlo fireside chat @ IIB Institute of Int'l Bankers (9:30am et D.C.)
Wells Fargo CEO Tim Sloan testifies @ US House FinServices Cmte on Scandals
SEC Chief Jay Clayton fireside chat @ IIB (10:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $24B reopened 10-year Notes (1pm et)
FDIC Chair Jelena McWilliams speaks @ IIB (3pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
         Japan Feb Corporate Goods Price Index, Jan Core Machinery Orders, Tertiary Industry Index, Feb PPI
         South Korea Feb Unemploymen Rate
         Singapore Unemployment Rae
         German Feb Wholesale Price Index
         Spain Feb CPI & HICP
         Italy Qtrly Unemployment
         Eurozone Jan Industrial Production
         UK Annual Budget Release + Spring Forecast Statement from FinMin Hammond
Wed.        Mar 13 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications
Canada Teranet/National Bank Feb Home Price Index
Brazil Jan Industrial Production
US Jan Durable Goods Orders/Shipments (8:30am et)
US Feb PPI --Final Demand
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations (10am et)
US Jan Construction Spending
US 18Q4 eCommerce (Consumer) Sales
Mexico Jan Industrial Production
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Report (10:30am et  w/e 03/08)
Brazil Fx Flows
US Treasury Auctions $16B reopened 30-year Bonds (1pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
         Japan Foreign Investment in Stocks & Bonds
         China Feb Industrial Production, Jan Fixed Asset Investment, Retail Sales, Jobless Rate, Property Investment
         South Korea Feb Unemployment Rate
         India Feb Manufacturing, Fuel & Food Inflation
         French, German Feb CPI & HICP
         South Africa Jan Gold & Mining Production
         UK RICS Feb House Price Balance
         BoJ MPC Meeting Begins (thru 15th, local time)
         Swiss SECO March Economic Forecasts, Feb CPI & PPI
         South Africa Jan Manufacturer Production
         Brazil Jan Retail Sales
         OPEC Monthly Report
Thursday, Mar 14 US weekly Jobless Claims
US Feb Import/Export Prices (8:30am et)
US Jan New Home Sales (10am et)
Canada Jan New House Price Index
Russia Central Bank Reserves
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report  (10:30am et)
NAHB Mar Housing Market Index
US Treasury Refunding Announcement (11am et)
BoC Dpty Gov Wilkins on "risks to global growth in a time when leverage & protectionist sentiment are running high" (Vancouver)
US Treasury Auctions 4, & 8-week  Bills (value not yet announced at post)
Fed Reserve weekly Balance Sheet & US Money Supply (4:30pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri a.m. et:
        South Korea Feb Import/Export Prices
        New Zealand Feb Manufacturing PMI, Jan Net Migration, Visitor Arrivals
        BoC (Canada) Dpty Gov Wilkins speaks
        BoJ MPC Rate & QE Decisions, then Press Conference (03/15 local time)
        BoJ Kuroda also speaks @ B20 Tokyo Summit (03/15 local time)
        China Feb New Home Prices
        EU 25 Feb New Car Registrations, CPI
        IEA Monthly Report
        India Trade Balance, Bank Loan & Deposit Growth, Fx Reserves
        Italy Jan Industrial Orders/Sales, Feb CPI & HICP
        Eurozone Feb CPI
Friday,      Mar 15 Quadruple Witch-Options/Futures Expire (S&P releases Preliminary Rebalance note)
Empire State Mar Manufacturing Index (8:30am et)
Canada Jan Manufacturing Sales/Shipments, Feb Existing Home Sales
US Feb Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization (9:15am et--polar vortex impact?)
U.M. Preliminary Mar Consumer Sentiment (10am et)
US Jan JOLTS (Job Openings, Quits & Turnover 10am et)
Baker-Hughes US/North American Rig Count (1pm et)
US TICS (4pm et)
St. Patrick's Day usuallly bullish for equities but it's not a trading day, this year
Saturday, Mar 17 German Feb WPI
      WEEKS AHEAD: 03/19--20     FOMC Meets

                                             03/21      BoE MPC Meets
                                                            SNB (Swiss) MPC Meets
                                                            Norges Bank (Norway) MPC Meets
                                           03/26        RBNZ (New Zealand) MPC Meets
                                           03/28        Bk of Mexico MPC Meets

*FOMC 2018 Voting Members:  Chairperson Jerome Powell, as of 02/05/18, and ALL members of the FOMC Board of Governors are permanent voters: That includes Randall Quarles, & Lael Brainard, newly (Sept) sworn in Richard Clarida, plus New York Fed Pres, currently John Williams (Formerly of the San Francisco Fed) who replaced William Dudley, who retired from the bank on June 15, 2018.:New, revolving Regional Fed Bank leaders who are voters for 2018: Atlanta Fed Pres. Raphael Bostic, new in August 2017 (replaced Dennis Lockhart), former McKinsey exec Thomas Barkin, who assumed the title of Pres of Richmond Fed on 01/01/18, plus San Francisco Fed, without a leader, since Williams left for NY in July, named Mary Daly Pres/CEO as of 10/1/2018, who'll be a voter until Feb. The hole in the San Francisco Fed's hierarchy resulted in Esther George--a very vocal hawk--becoming a voting member of the FOMC, but she steps aside as of Mary Daly's swearing in, and returns as a voter in Feb 2019. Cleveland Fed's voter, Loretta Mester, a hawk, who wants rates raised at a quicker pace because she believes the Fed has, already, fallen behind the curve.  Richmond wound up with an opening, after Jeff Lacker resigned, in early April 2017, when it became known he'd (unintentionally) leaked sensitive FOMC discussions to Medley Advisors. Richmond operated with an Interim Pres, Mark L Mullinix, while searching for its new leader, Thomas Barkin, who arrived Jan 1st 2018.. Dissenters at the Dec. 2017 Meeting, Neel Kashkari & Charles Evans, are no longer voters in 2018.
               * HICP used in Europe, means Harmonized Index of Consumer Price