wall street in advance

November 2019  Economic Statistics
and Other Economic Influences

                Weekly Chain Store Sales*
                 Average Hourly Earnings*
                 API Weekly Gas/Oil Stockpiles Report*  **
Mortgage Applications  Data
                 EIA Weekly Report on Gas & Oil Stockpiles* (10a.m.)
                 Weekly Unemployment Report*
                  Weekly Mutual Fund Flows*
                   Natural Gas Storage Levels* (a.m.)

 *Except Holidays    ** As of 1/09         All Dates Subject to Change:
Sunday,    Nov 03 US (ex-Arizona) Moves to Daylight Savings Time @2am et
    OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
        Aussie Sept/Q3 Retail Sales, TD Securities Oct Inflation, ANZ Job Ads
        New Zealand Treasury Monthly Economic Indicators
        UK Lloyds Business Barometer
        Markit Eurozone, France, Italy, Germany Oct Manufacturing PMI
        Eurozone Sentix Nov Investor Confidence

        Swiss SECO Q4 Consumer Climate
        Singapore Manufacturing PMI
        French Gov't Budget
        UK Markit/CIPS Oct Construction PMI
        Brazil Sept PPI, BCB Focus Market Readout
        ECB/Kings College "Modelling with Big Data & Machine Learning: Interpretability & model Uncertainty" (@Centre for Central Banking Studies; London thru 5th)
        UK House of Commons Election for new Speaker
Monday,   Nov 04 US Q3 Mortgage Delinquencies/Foreclosures
13th VOWS Veterans on Wall Street Charity Day & Gala
US Oct Vehicle Sales
US Sept (F) Durable Goods/Capital Goods Orders/Shipments
US Sept Factory Orders
  (small GM impact; 10am et)
US Treasury Auctions $45B 3-, & $42B 6-month Bills (11:30am et)
TD Ameritrade IMX (12:30pm et)
ECB Chief Lagarde lauds Mr. Schauble (Berlin Germany  20:30 cet)
Fed's Daly fireside chat @NYU Stern Ctr for Global Economy & Business (3pm et NY)
Separate Holidays in Japan & Russia
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
        Aussie AiG Performance of Services, CBA Services/Composite PMI
        New Zealand Oct Commodity Prices
        UK BRC Oct Like for Like Sales
        Hong Kong Oct Manufacturing PMI

        RBA (Aussie) MPC Interest Rate Decision   (11/05 local time)
        India Nikkei Oct Services PMI
        So. Africa Standard Bank PMI
        Caixin Oct China Services/Composite PMI
        UK Oct New Car Registrations, Markit CIPS Services/Composite PMI

        Eurozone Sept PPI
        Brazil Capcom meeting Minutes, Markiet Oct Services/Composite PMI
        Canada Sept Int'l Merchandise Trade Balance
Tuesday,  Nov 05 US Sept Int'l Trade Deficit (8:30am et)
US Redbook weekly store sales snapshot (8:55am et)
US Oct Markit Services/Composite PMI (9:45am et)
US Oct ISM non-Manufacturing (Services) Index/Outlook (10am et)
US Sept JOLTS  (Job Openings & Quits)
US Treasury Auctions $28B 52-week Bills (11:30am et)
Fed's Kaplan speaks @Real Estate Council Speaker Series w/Q&A (12:40pm Dallas TX)
US Treasury Auctions $38B 3-year Notes (1pm et)
Fed's Kashkari speaks @Thrivent Financial Business Development Conference (6pm MN)
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
        New Zealand QV Oct House Prices, Q3 Unemployment Rate/Change/Earnings/ Participation/Labor Cost
        So. Korea Sept Current Account
       BoJ Minutes of September MPC Meeing, Jibun Bank Oct Services/Composite PMI
        China Oct Fx Reserves
        German Sept Factory Orders
        Markit Eurozone, France, German, Italy, Spain  Markit Oct Services/Composite PMI
        ECB's de Guindos welcome remarks @ECB Forum on Banking Supervision: "Banking at a crossroads resilience & innovation in an era of uncertainty" ECB's Enria also speaks; Mersch a panelist on "Rules & regulation--what does the future hold?"  + Jochnick debates "Banks, governance & ethics--how can we trike the right balance?" & Enria panelist "Tje architecture of crisis managaement--how can we make it more efficient?" & Hakkarainen panelist "Banking in a digital world--how is modern technology driving change?" (@ECB Frankfurt 10:00, 10:15, 10:30,12:00, 14:00 & 15:45cet, respectively)
        Eurozone Sept Retail Sales
Wed.        Nov 06 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications
US Q3 Productivity & Costs
(8:30am et)
New York Times DealBook Conference (NY)
Canada IVEY Oct PMI
NY Fed Pres Williams speaks @WSJ Future of Work Conference (NY 9:30am et)
UK Releases Autumn Budget
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates/Refineries Re;port (10:30am et; w/e 11/01)
US Treasury Auctions $27B 10-year Notes (1pm et)
Philly Fed's Harker speaks on "Rethinking Workforce Investments" w/Q&A @Drexel Univ. (3:15pm et Philadelphia PA)
Fed's Kaplan discusses national & global economic issues with Tom Luce (Dallas FRB Houston branch)
St Louis FRB Bankers Roundtable (3pm--5pm local time. St Louis FRB )
Fed's Williams welcome remarks @NY FRB GARP Global Risk Forum (6:30pm NY)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
        Aussie AiG Oct Performance of Construction Index, Sept Trade Balance, Fx Reserves
        China Oct Trade Balance, BoP Q3 Current Account
        Japan Nov Reuters Tankan Index
        15th Annual Central Bank Conf. on Microstructure of Financial Markets (Stockholm Sweden thru 8th)
       UK Sovereign Debt to be rated by Moody's
       UK Halifax Oct House Price Index
       Italian Sept Retail Sales
       Swisss UBS Q3 Real Estate Bubble Index
       German Sept Industrial Production, Markit Oct Construction PMI
       ECB Monthly Economic Bulletin + EU Commission Economic Forecasts
       BoE MPC Interet Rate/QE Decision, Inflation Report +Meeting Summary + Minutes (12:00 gmt --w/Brexit postponed, again)
Thurs,      Nov 07 BoE Gov Carney post-Meeting Press Conference 
US weekly Jobless Claims/Continuing Claims (8:30am et)
Mexican Oct CPI
IMF 19th Jacques Polak Research Conference: DEBT. The Good. The Bad. The Ugly (D.C. thru 8th)
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (10:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills (11:30am et;  value to be announced 11/07)
US Treasury Auctions $19B 30-year Bonds (1pm et)
Fed's Kaplan speaks @Dallas Chamber of Commerce Year Ahead Summit w/Q&A (1:05pm Dallas TX)
US Sept Consumer Credit (3pm et)
Fed Reserve Aggregate Reserves of Depository Institutions and the Monetary Base (4:30)
Federal Reserve's weekly Balance Sheet (4:30pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
         Dialogue with the Fed: How Fintech is Transforming Banking (St Louis FRB 6pm local time)
        Atlanta Fed's Bostic on monetary policy @Money Marketeers of NY w/Q&A (7pm)
        Japan Sept Household Spending, Oct Fx Reserves
        Aussie Sept Home Loans, Investment Lending
        China Oct New Yuan Loans, Aggregate Financing, Money Supply, Trade Balance
        Swiss Oct Unemployment Rate
        German Sept Trade Balance, Current Account
        French Sept Trade Balance, Current Account, Industrial Production, Q3 Unemployment Rate
        ECB's de Guindos participates in ECOFIN meeting (Brussels Belgium)
Friday,     Nov 08 Canada Oct Unemployment Rate/Change/Full-Part Time, Housing Starts, Building Permits
U.M. Prelim Nov Consumer Sentiment (10am et)
US Sept Wholesale Trade--Inventories & Sales  (10am et)
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm et;  w/e 11/01)
FRBank of Chicago Alejandro Justiniano Memorial Conference (FRB Chicago thru 9th)
SF Fed's Daly opens FRB San Francisco Research Conference on Climate Change  (11:45am et)
St Louis FRB "Housing & Neighborhood Redevelopment Policy Forum" (St Louis MO
BoC's (Canada) Beaudry speaks
    OVERNIGHT into US Sat. a.m. et:
        Fed Gov Brainard
closes FRB of San Francisco Research Conference--The Economics of Climate Change (San Francisco CA 8:30pm et) + Daly closes (10:15pm et)
        China Oct CPI  + PPI
Saturday, Nov 09
China BoP Current Account Balance
Sunday,    Nov 10     OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
        China Oct Direct Investment

        Japan Eco Watchers Survey
        New Zealand Oct Card Retail Spending
        Japan Sept Core Machinery Orders, Trade Balance, Oct Bank & Trust Lending
        China Oct New Yuan Loans, Money Supply
        BoJ Summary of Opinions from Oct Meeting

        ADIPEC Int'l (mostly National) Petroleum Conference/Expo (Abu Dhabi UAE thru 14th)
         Italian Sept Industrial Production
         UK Q3 NIESR GDP, Private Consumption, Gov't Spending, Business Investment, Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Sept Industrial & Manufacturing Production, Trade Balance, Construction Output, Index of Services
         India Sept Industrial Production/Manufacturing Output
         Russia Sept Trade Balance
         A Conversation w/ECB's Enria @20th Handelsblatt Conference, "EBR--European Banking Regulation," then panelist at same event (Frankfurt am Main, Germany 10:30cet)
        ECB Household Sector Report (11:00 cet)
        ECB's Mersche speaks @European Investment Bank (Luxembourg  16:30cet)
        Mexico Sept Industrial Production
Monday,   Nov 11 Veterans Day, US Treasuries Closed; Equities Opem 9:30 to 4pm
(Santiago Chile)
CFRI Corporate Financial Reporting Insights
Conference (NY thru 12th)
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
        New Zealand Oct Heavy Truckometer, Sept Migration
        Aussie Oct NAB Business Conditions/Confidence
        German Oct Wholesale Price Index (WPI)
        Japan Oct  Machine Tool Orders
        Singapore Sept Retail Sales
        Fed V. Chair Clarida on "Monetary Policy, Price Stability, & Bond Yields,"
@ High-Level Conference on "Global Risk, Uncertainty, & Volatility" from US FRB, BIS, + SNB (5:30am et; Ruschlikon, Suisse)
        ECB's Couere speaks @ECB workshop on money markets & central bank balance sheets (Frankfurt 9:00 cet)
         ECB's Enria keynotes European Commission's DG Financial Stability, Financial Services & Capital Markets Union Conference upon implementation of Basel III Ms af  jochnick another panelist (Brussels)
        UK Sept ILO Unemployment Rate/Change/Claims Count/weekly Earnings
        German ZEW Nov. Economic Sentiment/Outlook
        Eurozone Nov. ZEW Survey of Economic Conditions/Expectations
Tuesday   Nov 12 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (6am et)
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot (8:55am et)
US Treasury Auctions $45B 3-, & $42B 6-month Bills (and that's it!)
Richmond Fed's Barkin on "Getting Peop;e Off the Sidelines: The Ultimate Workforce Development Plan"  @Institute for Advanced Learning & Research (noon; Danville VA)
Fed's Harker Q&A on "What's Next for the U.S. Economy & Fed?" @SABEW Annual Fall Meeting (1pm NY)
Fed's Kashkari moderated discussion @Center for Research on the Wisconsin Economy (Madison WI 6pm)
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
         South Korea Oct Unemployment Rate
        Japan Oct Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index, PPI, Sept Loans & Discounts
        Aussie Q3 Wage Price Index, Unemployment Rate/Change/Participation
        RBNZ (New Zealand) MPC Interest Rates Decisions, Economic Outlook, Press Conference  (11/13 local time)
        German Oct CPI, HICP
         UK Oct CPI, PPI, House Price Index, Retail Price Index
         Brazil Sept Retail Sales, Fx Flows
         Eurozone Sept Industrial Production
         ECB Governing Council non-monetary policy meeting (Frankfurt)
         India Oct CPI
Wed.,       Nov 13 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications (7am et)
US Oct. CPI (8:30am et)
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations (10am et)
US House Impeachment Hearings Open to Public for 1st Time
Fed Chair Powell on "The Economic Outlook"@Jt Economic Cmte of Congress (11am)
Ricmond Fed's Barkin speaks to Greensboro Chamber of Commerce "The New Environment for Monetary Policy (12:30pm NC)
US Treasury Budget (2pm et)
Dallas Fed's Kaplan discusses national & global eco issues w/Douglas Holtz-Eakin of Am. Action Forum + Q&A (Austin TX,  6:05pm)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
        Japan Q3 GDP, Business Spending/ Household Spending
        UK RICS Oct House Price Balance

        Aussie Oct Unemployment Rate/Change/Participation
        China Oct Industrial Production, Property Investment, Retail Sales, Jobless Rate, Fixed Asset Investment
        India Oct Food, Fuel & Inflation WPI, Manufacturing Inflation
        German Q3 GDP
        French Q3 Unemployment Rate, Oct CPI, HICP
        Spain Oct CPI, HICP
        Swiss Oct PPI & CPI
        UK Oct Retail Sales
        ECB's Lane keynotes 4th CEPR Int'l Macroeconomics & Finance Programme Mtg  (12:00cet  Frankfurt)
        ECB's de Guindos interviewd @BNP Paribas Global Markets Conference (London)
        South Africa Sept Mining Production, Gold Production
        Eurozone Q3 GDP, Unemployment Rate/Change
        Fed V. Chair Quarles (pre-recorded video) welcome remarks @IAIS--Int'l Ass'n of Insurance Supervisors' 26th Annual Conference (5:30am et; Abu Dhabi UAE)
Thurs.      Nov 14 Canada Sept New Housing Price Index
US weekly Jobless Claims
US Oct PPI--FD (8:30am et)
Fed V. Chair Clarida on "Federal Reserve's Review of its Monetary Policy, Strategy, Tools & Communications Practices" @Cato Institute 37th Monetary Conference (9:10am et; D.C,)
Fed Chair Powell testifies on the Economic Outlook @ US House Budget Cmte (10am)
ECB's Hakkarainen speaks @ECB Policy Conference, "Banking in Europe--a political, a monetary and a supervisory perspective (Frankfurt 16:50 cet)
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (10:30am et;  w/e 11/08)
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates/Refineries Report (11am et)
US Treasury Refunding Announcement (11am et)
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills (11:30am et;  value not know at post)
NY Fed's Williams opens S. F. Fed's AEPC--Asia Economic Policy Conference  w/Q&A (noon) Also speaking: S.F. Fed's Mary Daly,   HK Monetary Authority, RBNZ, Bk of Korea, Banco Centro of Brasil, BoC Gov Poloz   @FRB San Francisco (thru 15th)
Banco de Mexico MPC Interest Rate Decision
Fed Reserve Balance Sheet (4:30pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
        China Oct House Prices

        South Korea Oct Trade Balance
        Japan Sept Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization
        Hong Kong Q3 GDP
        ECB's Mersch @Colloque de l'AEDBF--Europe (Paris FR 9:00 cet)
        ECB's af jochnick keynotes "7th Frankfurt Conference on Financial Market Policy"
        Italian Sept Trade Balance, Oct CPI, HICP
        Eurozone Oct CPI, HICP, Sept Trade Balance, Oct Total Reserve Assets
Friday,     Nov 15 BoC's Lane panelist on Digital Currency, Sept Int'l Securities Transactions
US Oct Retail Sales (8:30am et)
Empire State NY FRB Nov. Manufacturing Survey
US Oct Import/Export Prices
Canada Oct Existing Home Sales
US Oct. Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization  (9:15am et; GM strike impact)
US Sept Business Inventories (10am et)
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm et)
S.F. FRB CEO/Pres Daly addresses the FRB San Francisco AEPC (San Francisco)
Saturday, Nov 16
      WEEKS AHEAD: 11/20  FOMC Minutes of 10/29--30 Meeting
                                     12/03    RBA (Aussie) MPC Meeting
                                     12/04    BoC (Canada) MPC Meeting
                              12/10--11   FOMC Meeting (2pm et)
                                     12/11    Fed Chair Powell Press Conference (2:30pm et)
                                     12/12    ECB MPC Meeting
                                                 SNB (Swiss) MPC Meeting
                                     12/19    BoJ MPC Meets
                                                 BoE MPC Meets

*FOMC 2019 Voting Members:  Chairperson Jerome Powell, as of 02/05/18, and ALL members of the FOMC Board of Governors are permanent voters: That includes Randall Quarles, & Lael Brainard, Richard Clarida, Gov Bowman, (Senate confirmed 09/12/19) plus New York Fed Pres, currently John Williams (Formerly of the San Francisco Fed) who replaced William Dudley, who retired from the bank on June 15, 2018.:New, revolving Regional Fed Bank leaders who are voters for 2018: Atlanta Fed Pres. Raphael Bostic, new in August 2017 (replaced Dennis Lockhart), former McKinsey exec Thomas Barkin, who assumed the title of Pres of Richmond Fed on 01/01/18. San Francisco Fed named Mary Daly Pres/CEO as of 10/1/2018, who'll be a voter until Feb. The hole in the San Francisco Fed's hierarchy resulted in Esther George--a very vocal hawk--becoming a voting member of the FOMC, but she steps aside as of Mary Daly's swearing in, and returns as a voter in Feb 2019. Cleveland Fed's voter, Loretta Mester, a hawk, who wants rates raised at a quicker pace because she believes the Fed has, already, fallen behind the curve.  Richmond wound up with an opening, after Jeff Lacker resigned, in early April 2017, when it became known he'd (unintentionally) leaked sensitive FOMC discussions to Medley Advisors. Richmond operated with an Interim Pres, Mark L Mullinix, while searching for its new leader, Thomas Barkin, who arrived Jan 1st 2018.. Dissenters at the Dec. 2017 Meeting, Neel Kashkari & Charles Evans, are no longer voters in 2018.
               * HICP used in Europe, means Harmonized Index of Consumer Price