wall street in advance

February 2019  Economic Statistics
and Other Economic Influences

                Weekly Chain Store Sales*
                 Average Hourly Earnings*
                 API Weekly Gas/Oil Stockpiles Report*  **
Mortgage Applications  Data
                 EIA Weekly Report on Gas & Oil Stockpiles* (10a.m.)
                 Weekly Unemployment Report*
                  Weekly Mutual Fund Flows*
                   Natural Gas Storage Levels* (a.m.)

 *Except Holidays    ** As of 1/09         All Dates Subject to Change:
Sun.          Feb 10     OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
         China Jan. New Yuan Loans & Aggregate Financing, Foreign Direct Investment, + Money Supply
          Hong Kong Jan Fx Reserves
          Swiss Jan CPI
          UK 18Q4 GDP, Total Business Investment, Private Consumption, Goverment Spending,  Dec Trade Balance, Industrial & Manufacturing Production, Construction Output, Index of Services, NIESR Jan GDP Estimate
          Russian Trade Balance
          ECB VP de Guidos speaks @ Deusto Business School (Madrid Spain)
          MBA Q4 Mortgage Delinquencies/Foreclosures
Monday,   Feb 11 US Revisions to CPI
Canada Trade Balance
Mexican Dec Industrial Production
US Treasury Auctions $45B  3-, & $39B 6-month Bills
Japan Holiday--National Founding Day
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
         New Zealand  Jan Card Spending
         Aussie Dec Home Loans, Value of All Loans, NAB Jan Biz Conditions/Confidence
         Japan Dec Tertiary Industry Index, Jan (P) Machine Tool Orders
         Singapore Dec Retail Sales
         South Africa 18Q4 Unemployment Rate, Dec Manufacturing Production
         India Dec & Cumulative Industrial Production, Manufacturing Output
         South Korea Jan Unemployment Rate
Tuesday,   Feb 12 US Revises PPI
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (6am et)
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot
Fed's JOLTS (Job Turnover & Quits)
Fed's George on "Charting America's Economic Course" @ KC Public Library (5:30pm)
Fed's Mester on eco outlook & monetary policy @ Xavier Univ & Financial Executives Int'l Cincinnati Chapter (OH 6:30pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
         New Zealand Jan QV House Prices
         Japam Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index, Jan PPI
         German JanWholesale Price Index
         RBNZ (New Zealand) MPC Rate Decision, Official Cash Rate (13th local time)
         UK Jan CPI, Retail Price Index, PPI, House Price Index
         Riksbank (Sweden) MPC Rate Decision & Policy Statement
(13th local time)
         Eurozone Dec Industrial Production
         Brazil Dec Retail Sales
         South Africa Dec Retail Sales
         IEA Monhly Report
Wed.         Feb 13 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Apps
Fed's Bostic on Eco Oulook & Monetary Policy before European Financial Forum (Dublin, Ireland 7:15am et)
Canada Teranet/Nat'l Bank Jan Home Price Index
US Jan CPI (8:30am et)
Fed's Mester "A View from the Federal Reserve" @ "What's Next for Kentucky in the Global Economy" hosted by U of KY Galton College of Business & Economics (850am et)
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Report (10:30am et  w/e 02/08)
Fed's Harker on Eco Outlook @ Jewish Business Network Powr Lunch (Philadelphia)
US Monthly Treasury Budget (2pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
         New Zealand Jan Food Prices
         Japan 18Q4 GDP/Private Consumption/Business Spending
         China Jan Imports/Exports, Trade Balance
         UK RICS Jan House Price Balance
         India Jan WPI Food, Fuel, Consumer Inflation
         French 18Q4 Unemployment Rate
         German 18Q4 GDP

         Swiss Jan Producer & Import Prices
         South Africa Dec Gold & Mining Production
         Eurozone 18Q4 Employment, GDP
         Canada Dec Manufacturing Sales, Housing Price Index 
Thursday, Feb 14 US weekly Jobless Claims
US Jan PPI-FD (8:30am et)
US Dec. '18 Retail Sales (Delayed until today)
US Nov Business Inventories (shutdown delayed  10am et)
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (w/e 02/08)
US Treasury Refunding Announcement (11am et)
US Treasury Auctions 4-wk & 8-wk Bills (11:30am et)
Fed's Harker on "Approaches to Leadership" @ 3rd Lerner MBA Student Ass'n Conf (Newark DE)
Fed Reserve Bk Balance Sheet & US Money Supply (4:30pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
         29th Australian & New Zealand Econonmetric Study Group Meeting (to 15th Wellington)
        RBA's Kent speaks (Melbourne)
        Norsk (Norway) Gov Olsen Annual Policy/Sovereign Wealth Fund Address (Oslo)
        New Zealand Jan Business Manufacturing
        China's BoP 18Q4 Current Account Balance, Jan CPI  + PPI
        Singapore 18Q4 GDP
        Japan Dec Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization
        Italy Dec Trade Balance
        Spain Jan CPI + HICP
        EU 25 Jan New Car Registrations
        UK Jan Retail Sales

        Eurozone Dec Trade Balance
        Canada Dec International Securities Transactions
Friday,      Feb 15 Empire State Feb Manufacturing Survey (8:30am et)
US Jan Import/Export Prices
Canada Jan Existing Home Sales
US Jan Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization (9:15am et)
Fed's Bostic on "Workforce Development"  @ Public Affairs Research Council of Alabama w/Q&A (Birmingham AL 9:55am)
U.M. Interim Feb Consumer Sentiment (10am et)
ECB's Coeure @ C. Peter McCol,ough Series on Int'l Economics from Council on Foreign Relations (NY)
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm et)
Fed's Daly speaks @ Economic Forecast Conference (1:15pm et)
Saturday,  Feb 16
Sunday,     Feb 17     OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
        Japan Dec Machine Orders, Jan Dept Stores
        Singapore Jan Trade Balance
        UK Rightmove Feb House Prices
        Russia GDP + PPI
        ECB Bank Supervisor Enria panelist on "Banking Union-Challenges Ahead" @ European Parliamentary Week (Brussels Belgium)
        OPEC and non-OPEC Oil Producers meeting on Quotas (Vienna Austria 02/18 local time)
Monday,  Feb 18 US Presidents Day Holiday; US Markets Closed
Canada Family Day Holiday
Pres. Trump speech on Venezuela (Miami FL)
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
        South Korea Jan Import & Export Price Indices
        Japan Feb. Reuters Tankan Index
        UK CBI Feb Selling Price & Order Trends, Total Orders
        RBA (Aussie) Minutes of 02/05 Meeting & Jan Offshore Holdings
        Tokyo Jan Condo Sales
        Swiss Jan Trade Balance/Watch Exports
        Italy Dec Industrial Orders/Sales
        Eurozone Dec Current Account
        UK Jan Jobless Claims, Dec ILO Total Unemployment Rate/Change, Avg Wkly Earnings
        Eurozone Dec Construction Output
        German Feb ZEW Survey of Current Conditions/Expectations/Sentiment
        Russia Jan Unemployment Rate & retail Sales
        ECB VP Guindos panelist on "Euro at 20 Years: the Road Ahead" at European Parliamentary Week (Brussels)
        ECB Chief Economist Praet panelist at conference "Europa zwishcen Aufbruch und Frustration: Wie erreichen wir mehr Integration und Stabilitat?" Jt Allianz SE & Stiftung Marktwirtschaft (Berlin Germany)
Tuesday,  Feb 19 Fed's Mester on eco outlook & monetary policy at 2019 Economic Forecast event w/Q&A @ U of DE Center for Economic Education & Entrepreneurship  (Newark DE 8:50am et)
NAHB Feb Housing Market Index (10am et)
Riksbank Gov Ingves on eco situation & monetary policy in visit to NY
US Treasury Auctions $45B 3-, & $39B 6-month Bills
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
         Japan Jan Trade Balance, Supermarket Sales, Convenience Store Sales
         Aussie Jan Skilled Vacancies, 18Q4 Wage Price Index,
         German Jan PPI
         South Africa Jan CPI
         UK Feb CBI Industrial Order Trends
         ECB chief economist Praet speaks @ 11th Frankfurt Main Financial Centre breakfast hosted by Frankfurt un Main Finance e.V. (Frankfurt Germany)
Wed.,       Feb 20 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot
184Q eCommerce Sales (10am et)
US Treasury Auctions $18B reopened 2-year FRN Notes (11:30am et)
Stanford Univ. hosts on "Achieving Full Employment in the modern Economy: Associates Meeting with (S.F. Fed's) Mary C. Daly " @ Stanford Institute of Economic Policy Research (Palo Alto CA)
FOMC Minutes of Jan 29--30 Meeting (2pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
         Aussie CBA Feb (P) Manufacturing & Services PMI
         Japan Jan. Tokyo Dept Store Sales, Nikkei Feb Manufacturing PMI
         RBA Jan Fx Transactions, Dec Unemployment Rate/Change/Full- & Part-Time
         Japan Jan Machine Tool Orders, Feb Manufacturing PMI, All Industries Activity
         France, Germany, Italy Jan CPI + HICP
         Hong Kong Jan Unemployment Ratre
         BoE publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meetings
         Spanish Trade Balance
         Markit Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy Feb Manufacturing + Services PMI
         UK Jan Public Finances, Central Gov't NCR, Public Sector Net Borrowing
         UK Inflation Report Hearings
         ECB's Praet
keynotes Int'l Conference on Real Estate Statistics hosted by Eurostat (Luxembourg) Praet also panelist on "Is the ECB finally returning to standard policies?" @ Centre for European Policy Studies Ideas Lab (Brussels)
Thurs.      Feb 21 Fed's Bostic on eco outlook & monetary policy toTerry Third Thursday (Atlanta GA 7:50am)
US Dec '18 Durable Goods Orders/Shipments (8:30am et)
US weekly Jobless Claims
Canada Dec Wholesale Trade Sales
Philly Fed Feb. Business Outlook Survey/Employment/Prices Paid/Orders (8:30am et)
Markit US flash Composite PMI
NAR Jan Existing Home Sales
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report  (10:30am et  w/e 02/15)
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Report (holiday delayed 11am et)
US Treasury Refunding Announcement (11am et)
US Treasury Auctions 4-wk & 8-wk Bills (11:30am et; amounts not announced at post )
US Treasury Auctions $8B 30-year TIPS (1pm et)
BoC Gov Poloz speaks @ Chamber of Commerce of Metropolitan Montreal (Quebec)
US weekly Federal Reserve Bank Balance Sheet & US Money Supply  (4:30pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
        RBA Gov Lowe testifies
at Parliament
        Japan Jan CPI
        China Jan Fx Transactions, Jan New Home Prices
        New Zealand Jan Credit Card Spending
        German 18Q4 GDP, Private Consumption, Business CapEx, Gov't Spending
        Swiss 18Q4 Industrial & Construction Output
        German Feb IFO Current Assessment/Expectations
        Eurozone Jan CPI
Friday,     Feb 22 Canada Dec Retail Sales + Budget Balance
Fed's Williams
panelist on "Prospects for inflation with a High-Pressure Economy" w/Q&A @ US Monetary Policy Forum by Chicago Booth School Monetary Policy Forum in NY (10:15am et)
ECB Chief Draghi speaks upon receiving an award of Laurea honoris from Univ degli studi di Bologna (Bologna Italy uncertain of time)
Fed's Bostic opens 1st Annual Jt Research Day on Quantitative Tools for Monitoring Macroeconomic & Financial Conditions organized by Fed Reserve Bks of Atlanta & NY
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North America Rig Count
(1pm et)
Fed's Bullard & Harker, + Fed Gov Clarida panelists on "The Future of the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet" @ U of Chicago Booth School of Biz 2019 Monetary Policy Forum hosted by Initiative on Global Markets (NY 1:30pm et)
Fed's Williams closing remarks at 1st Annual Jt Research Day on Quantitative Tools for Monitoring Macroeconomic & Financial Conditions  (NY 5:30pm et)
Sat.          Feb 23 Russia Defender of the Fatherland Holiday
UK Feb CBI Reported Sales, Total Distributed Reported Sales

  03/06     NY Fed's Williams speaks @ Economic Club of NY (11:30am--2pm)
                                                      Fed's Beige Book
                                                      Bk of Canada MPC Interest Rate Decision
                                                      ECB Monetary Policy Release, Draghi Press Conference
                                      03/15       BoJ MPC Meeting
                                03/19--20      FOMC Meets

*FOMC 2018 Voting Members:  Chairperson Jerome Powell, as of 02/05/18, and ALL members of the FOMC Board of Governors are permanent voters: That includes Randall Quarles, & Lael Brainard, newly (Sept) sworn in Richard Clarida, plus New York Fed Pres, currently John Williams (Formerly of the San Francisco Fed) who replaced William Dudley, who retired from the bank on June 15, 2018.:New, revolving Regional Fed Bank leaders who are voters for 2018: Atlanta Fed Pres. Raphael Bostic, new in August 2017 (replaced Dennis Lockhart), former McKinsey exec Thomas Barkin, who assumed the title of Pres of Richmond Fed on 01/01/18, plus San Francisco Fed, without a leader, since Williams left for NY in July, named Mary Daly Pres/CEO as of 10/1/2018, who'll be a voter until Feb. The hole in the San Francisco Fed's hierarchy resulted in Esther George--a very vocal hawk--becoming a voting member of the FOMC, but she steps aside as of Mary Daly's swearing in, and returns as a voter in Feb 2019. Cleveland Fed's voter, Loretta Mester, a hawk, who wants rates raised at a quicker pace because she believes the Fed has, already, fallen behind the curve.  Richmond wound up with an opening, after Jeff Lacker resigned, in early April 2017, when it became known he'd (unintentionally) leaked sensitive FOMC discussions to Medley Advisors. Richmond operated with an Interim Pres, Mark L Mullinix, while searching for its new leader, Thomas Barkin, who arrived Jan 1st 2018.. Dissenters at the Dec. 2017 Meeting, Neel Kashkari & Charles Evans, are no longer voters in 2018.
               * HICP used in Europe, means Harmonized Index of Consumer Price