wall street in advance

October 2019  Economic Statistics
and Other Economic Influences

                Weekly Chain Store Sales*
                 Average Hourly Earnings*
                 API Weekly Gas/Oil Stockpiles Report*  **
Mortgage Applications  Data
                 EIA Weekly Report on Gas & Oil Stockpiles* (10a.m.)
                 Weekly Unemployment Report*
                  Weekly Mutual Fund Flows*
                   Natural Gas Storage Levels* (a.m.)

 *Except Holidays    ** As of 1/09         All Dates Subject to Change:
Sunday,     Oct 13     OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
        Singapore Q3 GDP
        China Sept Trade Balance, New Yuan Loans/Aggregate Lending, Money Supply
        New Zealand Sept REINZ House Sales, Performance of Services Index, Migration
        India Sept WPI Inflation, Manufacturing Inflation
        Chiina Foreign Direct Investment
        Eurozone Aug Industrial Production
        Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout,, IBC-Br Aug Economic Activity
        BoE's Cunliffe speaks on Monetary Policy @Society of Professional Economists Annual Conference (London 13:10gmt)
Monday,  Oct 14 US Columbus Day Holiday--Treasury Markets Closed
US Equities Trade Regular Schedule

NY Fed 42nd Central Banking Seminar "The New Normal: Navigating a Low Rate Environment in an Uncertain World" (NY FRB thru 18th)
Econonic Sciences Memorial Prize awarded in memory of Alfred Nobel
Jt IMF/World Bank GroupAnnual Fall Meeting (D.C. thru 20th)
Canada & Japan separate holidays
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
         RBA (Aussie) Oct Rate Meeting Minutes Released
         BoJ's Kuroda
speaks @Branch Manager Meeting
         China Sept CPI + PPI
         So Korea Sept Trade Balance
         Japan Aug Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization, Tertiary Industry Activity Index
         Swiss Sept Producer& Import Prices
         French Sept CPI & HICP
         S.L. Fed's Bullard on "The Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Options" @2019 Monetary & Financial Policy Conference w/Q&A (London 4:25am et)
         UK ILO Aug Unemployment Rate/Change, Sept Claimant Count/Change/Earnings
         Eurozone Oct ZEW Survey of Current Conditions/Expectations, Reserve Assets
         German Oct ZEW Survey of Current Conditions/Expectations
         BoE's Vlieghe speaks on Monetary Policy @MoneyMacro & Finance Society Monetary & Financial Policy Conference  (London)
         UK Treasury Select Cmte hearing on "BoE Financial Stability Report" (9:30gmt)
Tuesday   Oct 15 NY Fed Oct Empire State Manufacturing Survey (8:30am et)
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot (8:55am et)
Fed's Bostic participant in Q&A on community development @Purpose Built Communities Conference (9am et)
India Trade Balance
BoC Dpty Gov Wilkins speaks (8:30am) & ECB's Lane & RBI's Patra speak (9:30am) @42nd NY Fed Central Banking Seminar (FRB NY thru 18th)
IMF presents World Economic Outlook (9am D.C.)
US Treasury Auctions $45B 3-, & $42B 6-month Bills (11:30am et)
NY Fed CEO/Pres Williams fireside chat @NY FRB Central Banking Seminar(12:30pm)
S.F. Fed's Daly @Los Angeles World Affairs Council/Town Hall w/Q&A (L.A. 2:30pm)
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
        12 Democratic 2020 Presidential Hopefuls Debate on CNN
(8pm et)
        So Korea Sept Import/Export Price Indices & Sept Unemployment Rate
        So Korea MPC Oct Interest Rate Decision
        New Zealand Q3 CPI
        Japan Sept Dept Store Sales
        EU 25 Sept New Car Registrations
        UK Sept CPI, PPI, Vehicle Registrations
, Retail Price Index, Aug House Price Index
        Eurozone Sept CPI, HICP, Aug Trade Balance
        Italy CPI + HICP
Wed.,       Oct 16 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications (7am et)
So. Africa Aug Retail Sales
Canada Sept CPI, Aug TICS
US Sept Retail Sales (8:30am et)
Fed's Evans on current eco conditions & monetary policy w/Q&A @Greater Peoria Development Council (Peoria IL 9am)
Russia Sept Industrial Production
US Aug Business (wholesale & retailer)  Inventories (10am et)
ECB's Lane "A Conversation with ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane" @Brookings Institution (D.C. 10am et)
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
IIF  Institute for International Finance Annual Meeting  (10am NY)
Bloomberg Sooner than you Think (Brooklyn NY)
Sohn Foundation Conference (San Francisco)
NAHB Oct Housing Market Index
Fed's Beige Book
(2pm et)
Fed Gov Brainard speaks @"Future of Money in the Digital Age," JT Peterson Institute + Princeton Univ Center for Finance (3pm stream live)
US Aug TICS   (4pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
        RBA's Debelle speaks (Sydney Australia), RBA Sept Fx Transactions
        Aussie Sept Unemployment Rate/Change/Participation, NAB Qtrly Biz Confidence
        Singapore Sept Trade Balance
        Tokyo Sept Condo Sales, Convenience Store Sales
        Hong Kong Sept Exports/Imports
        ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
        UK Sovereign Debt to be Rated by Fitch

        Swiss Sept Trde Balance ncludes Watch Exports
        BoE Bank Liabilities/Credit Conditions Surveys (9:30gmt, 10/17 local time)
        UK Sept Retail Sales
        Eurozone Aug Construction Output
Thurs.      Oct 17 Canada ADP Sept Payroll Estimate, Aug Manufacturing Sales
US Sept Housing Starts/Building Permits (8:30am et)
US weekly Jobless Claims/Continuing Claims
Philly Fed Oct Business Outlook Survey
IMF Global Stability press briefing
(8:30am et  D.C.)
David Malpass, new World Bank Grp leader, keynotes (8:45am D.C.)
US Sept Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization (9:15am et)
ECB's Couere
participates in G20 FinMin & Central Bank Governors deputies' mtg (DC)
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon "A Conversation on Global Developments" (10am NY FRB)
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (10:30am et;  w/e 10/11)
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Report (delayed by Mon. holiday)
US Treasury Refunding Announcement (11am et)
BoE's Breeden (Exec Dir for Int'l Banks Supervision) on "Climate Change and the Role of Central Banks" @NY FRB Central Banking Series (11am et)
Russia Fx Reserves, Sept Unemployment Rate, PPI, Retail Sales
US Auctions 4- & 8-week Bills (11:30am et; value not announced at post)
CNBC debate on the Global Economy @IMF/World Bank Jt Meeting (noon)
US Treasury Auctions $17B  5-year TIPS (1pm et)
Fed's Evans at "Fed Listens: Monetary Policy Impact on Workers and Their Communities" (2pm) Fed Gov Bowman speaks also  (2:10pm @Chicago IL FRB stream here)
Ray Dalio (Bridgewater) offers "A Macro Investor's View of the Current Global Environment" @42nd NY FRB Central Banking Series
NY Fed's Williams keynotes @Managed Funds Ass'n Outlook Conference (NY 4:20pm)
Fed Reserve Balance Sheet (soon to grow, again) & US weekly Money Supply (4:30pm)
G24 Press Briefing @IMF/World Bank Jt Annual Fall Meeting (5:15pm et)
     OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
         Japan Sept CPI,
Foreign Investments in Japan, Sept Trade Balance
         China Q3 + YTD GDP, Fixed Assets, Sept Industrial Production, Property Investment, Retail Sales, Surveyed Jobless Rate, Nat'l Bureau of Statistics Press Conf.
          Hong Kong Sept Unemployment Rate
          RBI (India) MPC Meeting Minutes

          UK CBI Oct Business Optimism, Selling & Order Trends
          German Sept WPI
          Eurozone Aug Current Account
Friday,     Oct 18 Canada Teranet/Nta'l Bank Sept Home Price Index
IMF Asia & Pacific press briefing (9am et) followed by Plenaries, then regional briefings at 45 minutes intervals (D.C.)
Fed's George & Fed's Kaplan speak @Jt Dallas & K.C. FRBs Conference on Energy & the Economy (10am Denver CO)
ECB's Draghi & Couere participate in IMF/World Bank JT Meeting (D.C.)
Chair McWilliams kicks off 9th FDIC Consumer Research Symposium
Fed's Kashkari speaks @Federal Home Loan Bank of Des Moines Annual Leadership Summit (Bloomington MN 10:30am)
Fed V. Chair Clarida "US Eco Outlook & Monetary Policy" @CFA Institute Fixed Income Management Conference 2019 (11:30am Boston MA streamed here )
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm;  w/e 10/11)
G20 press conference @IMF/World Bank JT Meeting (1:15pm  D.C.)
Saturday, Oct 19 Mervyn King (former Gov BoE) delivers Per Jacobsson Lecture "The World Turned Upside Down: Economic Policy in Turbulent Times" @IMF (D.C.)
ECB's Draghi & Couere partipate at IMF/World Bank Meetings (D.C.)
Sunday,    Oct 20 IMF Meetings Wrap
    OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
        Japan Sep Supermarket Sales, Sep Trade Balance, Aug All Industry Activity
        Singapore Q URA Property Index
        China Sept New Home Prices
(China) Interest Rate Fix
        New Zealand Sept Credit Card Spending
        UK Rightmove House Price Index
        German Sept PPI

        Eurozone Gov't Debt-to GDP
        BoE's Woods speaks @Mansion House (London)
        BoE's Haldane speaks on Diversity @ECB, FRB, BoE Joint 2nd Gender & Career Progession Conference @ECB (Frankfurt Germany)
Monday,  Oct 21 Assembly Elections Holiday in Maharashtra  (India)
US Treasury Auctions $45B 3-, & $42B 6-month Bills  (11:30am et)
Fed Gov Bowman @Gender & Career Progression: A Joint BoE, Fed Reserve, ECB Conference (11:40am et  @ECB, Frankfurt Gremany)
ECB's de Guindos closes Gender & Career Progression Joint Conference @ECB
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
        South Korea Sept PPI
        German Buba Monthly Report
        Spain Trade Balance
        UK Oct CBI Business Optimism/Trends in Orders/Sale Prices, Sept Public Finances
        ECB Bank Lending Survey
        Hong Kong Sept CPI
Tuesday,  Oct 22 Canada Aug Retail Sales
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot (8:55am et)
US Sept Existing Home Sales (10am et)
Richmond Fed Oct Manufacturing Index 
BoC (Canada) Q3  Senior Loan Officer Survey/Business Outlook
US Treasury Auctions $40B 2-year Notes (1pm et)
Japanese Holiday
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
        New Zealand Sept Trade Balance
        RBA's Kent panelist (Sydney), Aussie Sept Skilled Vacancies
        French Oct Business Survey
        China Sept Net Fx Settlement, SWIFT Global Payments
        South Africa Sept CPI
        German Sept Import/Export Prices
        ECB's Enria roundtable discussant at "Banking Union--Five Years in the making" organized by Banco de Espana (Madrid Spain)
        Japan Sept Nationwide & Tokyo Dept Store Sales
        OPEC+ Monthly Monitoring Cmte Meeting??
Wed.        Oct 23 MBA Mortgage/Refinance Apps (7am et)
Canada Aug Wholesale Trade
FHFA Aug. House Price Index
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates/Refinery Report
(10:30am et;  w/e 10/18)
US Treasury Auctions $20B 2-year Floating Rate Notes (11:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $41B 5-year Notes (1pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
        Aussie Oct Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs
        South Korea Q3 GDP
        Japan Nikkei Oct Manufacting PMI, Jibun Bk Services & Composite PMI
        Spain Q3 Unemployment Rate
        EU Commission Economic Forecasts
        UK & Italian Sovereign Debt to be Rated by S&P
        Norges (Norway) MPC Meets
        Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, Oct Markit Mnftg/Services/Composite PMIs
        Hong Kong Trade Balance
        UK BBA Sept Loans for House Purchase
        Mexican IAGAE Aug Economic Activity
        ECB MPC Interest Rate/QE Decisions (a week pre-Brexit & Draghi's swan song)
        ECB's Draghi post-Meeting Press Conference (14:30cet, Frankfurt)
Thurs,      Oct 24 Brazil BCB Nat'l Monetary Council Interest Rate Meeting, Sep Current Account/FDI
US Sept (P) Durable/Capital Goods Orders/Shipments (8:30am et)
US weekly Jobless Claims
US Markit Flash Oct Composite PMI (9:45am et)
US Sept New Home Sales (10am et)
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report
K.C. Fed Manufacturing Index (11am et)
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills (11:30am et; values not available at post)
US Treasury Auctions $32B 7-year Notes (1pm et)
US weekly Fed Balance Sheet (rising again  4:30pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
         German Nov GfK Consumer Confidence
         Japan Sept Machine Tool Orders
         Singapore Unemployment Rate, Sept Industrial Production
         French & Spanish Sept PPI
         Italy Trade Balance
         France Total Job Seekers
         Russia Oct Interest Rate Decision
         India Bank Loan & Deposit Growth, Fx Reserves
         German Oct IFO Business Climate/Expectations
         ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters  
Friday,     Oct 25 UM Oct  Consumer Sentiment/Outlook (10am et)
Canada Aug Budget Balance
Baker-Huges weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm et)
BoE Museum spook-tacular soiree (Halloween party at BoE museum)
Saturday, Oct 26
China Sept Industrial Profits
      WEEKS AHEAD: 10/29--30   FOMC 2-day Meeting
                                             10/30   FOMC Rate Decision

                                                         BoC (Canada) MPC Rate Decision
                                             10/31   BoJ MPC Meets

*FOMC 2019 Voting Members:  Chairperson Jerome Powell, as of 02/05/18, and ALL members of the FOMC Board of Governors are permanent voters: That includes Randall Quarles, & Lael Brainard, Richard Clarida, Gov Bowman, (Senate confirmed 09/12/19) plus New York Fed Pres, currently John Williams (Formerly of the San Francisco Fed) who replaced William Dudley, who retired from the bank on June 15, 2018.:New, revolving Regional Fed Bank leaders who are voters for 2018: Atlanta Fed Pres. Raphael Bostic, new in August 2017 (replaced Dennis Lockhart), former McKinsey exec Thomas Barkin, who assumed the title of Pres of Richmond Fed on 01/01/18. San Francisco Fed named Mary Daly Pres/CEO as of 10/1/2018, who'll be a voter until Feb. The hole in the San Francisco Fed's hierarchy resulted in Esther George--a very vocal hawk--becoming a voting member of the FOMC, but she steps aside as of Mary Daly's swearing in, and returns as a voter in Feb 2019. Cleveland Fed's voter, Loretta Mester, a hawk, who wants rates raised at a quicker pace because she believes the Fed has, already, fallen behind the curve.  Richmond wound up with an opening, after Jeff Lacker resigned, in early April 2017, when it became known he'd (unintentionally) leaked sensitive FOMC discussions to Medley Advisors. Richmond operated with an Interim Pres, Mark L Mullinix, while searching for its new leader, Thomas Barkin, who arrived Jan 1st 2018.. Dissenters at the Dec. 2017 Meeting, Neel Kashkari & Charles Evans, are no longer voters in 2018.
               * HICP used in Europe, means Harmonized Index of Consumer Price