wall street in advance

October/November 2019  Economic Statistics
and Other Economic Influences

                Weekly Chain Store Sales*
                 Average Hourly Earnings*
                 API Weekly Gas/Oil Stockpiles Report*  **
Mortgage Applications  Data
                 EIA Weekly Report on Gas & Oil Stockpiles* (10a.m.)
                 Weekly Unemployment Report*
                  Weekly Mutual Fund Flows*
                   Natural Gas Storage Levels* (a.m.)

 *Except Holidays    ** As of 1/09         All Dates Subject to Change:
Sunday,    Oct 20 IMF Meetings Wrap
    OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
        Japan Sep Supermarket Sales, Sep Trade Balance, Aug All Industry Activity
        Singapore Q URA Property Index
        China Sept New Home Prices
(China) Interest Rate Fix
        New Zealand Sept Credit Card Spending
        UK Rightmove House Price Index
        German Sept PPI

        Eurozone Gov't Debt-to GDP
        BoE's Woods speaks @Mansion House (London)
        BoE's Haldane speaks on Diversity @ECB, FRB, BoE Joint 2nd Gender & Career Progession Conference @ECB (Frankfurt Germany)
Monday,  Oct 21 Assembly Elections Holiday in Maharashtra  (India)
US Treasury Auctions $45B 3-, & $42B 6-month Bills  (11:30am et)
Fed Gov Bowman @Gender & Career Progression: A Joint BoE, Fed Reserve, ECB Conference (11:40am et  @ECB, Frankfurt Gremany)
ECB's de Guindos closes Gender & Career Progression Joint Conference @ECB
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
        South Korea Sept PPI
        German Buba Monthly Report
        Spain Trade Balance
        UK Oct CBI Business Optimism/Trends in Orders/Sale Prices, Sept Public Finances
        ECB Bank Lending Survey
        Hong Kong Sept CPI
Tuesday,  Oct 22 Canada Aug Retail Sales
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot (8:55am et)
US Sept Existing Home Sales (10am et)
Richmond Fed Oct Manufacturing Index 
BoC (Canada) Q3  Senior Loan Officer Survey/Business Outlook
US Treasury Auctions $40B 2-year Notes (1pm et)
Japanese Holiday
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
        New Zealand Sept Trade Balance
        RBA's Kent panelist (Sydney), Aussie Sept Skilled Vacancies
        French Oct Business Survey
        China Sept Net Fx Settlement, SWIFT Global Payments
        South Africa Sept CPI
        German Sept Import/Export Prices
        ECB's Enria roundtable discussant at "Banking Union--Five Years in the making" organized by Banco de Espana (Madrid Spain)
        Japan Sept Nationwide & Tokyo Dept Store Sales
        OPEC+ Monthly Monitoring Cmte Meeting??
Wed.        Oct 23 MBA Mortgage/Refinance Apps (7am et)
Canada Aug Wholesale Trade
FHFA Aug. House Price Index
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates/Refinery Report
(10:30am et;  w/e 10/18)
US Treasury Auctions $20B 2-year Floating Rate Notes (11:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $41B 5-year Notes (1pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
        Aussie Oct Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs
        South Korea Q3 GDP
        Japan Nikkei Oct Manufacting PMI, Jibun Bk Services & Composite PMI
        Spain Q3 Unemployment Rate
        EU Commission Economic Forecasts
        UK & Italian Sovereign Debt to be Rated by S&P
        Norges (Norway) MPC Meets
        Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, Oct Markit Mnftg/Services/Composite PMIs
        Hong Kong Trade Balance
        UK BBA Sept Loans for House Purchase
        Mexican IAGAE Aug Economic Activity
        ECB MPC Interest Rate/QE Decisions (a week pre-Brexit & Draghi's swan song)
        ECB's Draghi post-Meeting Press Conference (14:30cet, Frankfurt)
Thurs,      Oct 24 Brazil BCB Nat'l Monetary Council Interest Rate Meeting, Sep Current Account/FDI
US Sept (P) Durable/Capital Goods Orders/Shipments (8:30am et)
US weekly Jobless Claims
US Markit Flash Oct Composite PMI (9:45am et)
US Sept New Home Sales (10am et)
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report
K.C. Fed Manufacturing Index (11am et)
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills (11:30am et; values not available at post)
US Treasury Auctions $32B 7-year Notes (1pm et)
US weekly Fed Balance Sheet (rising again  4:30pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
         German Nov GfK Consumer Confidence
         Japan Sept Machine Tool Orders
         Singapore Unemployment Rate, Sept Industrial Production
         French & Spanish Sept PPI
         Italy Trade Balance
         France Total Job Seekers
         Russia Oct Interest Rate Decision
         India Bank Loan & Deposit Growth, Fx Reserves
         German Oct IFO Business Climate/Expectations
         ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters  
Friday,     Oct 25 U.M. Oct  Consumer Sentiment/Outlook (10am et)
Canada Aug Budget Balance
Baker-Huges weekly US/North American Rig Count (1pm et)
BoE Museum spook-tacular soiree (Halloween party at BoE museum)
Saturday, Oct 26
German Sept Retail Sales
Sept Industrial Profits
Sunday,     Oct 27 UK Nationwide Oct Home Price Index
    OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
       Japan Sept Corporate Service Price
       UK Oct CBI Reported Sales, Total Distributed Sales
       BoE Asset Purchase Facility Quality Report 19Q3 (9:30 gmt)
       BoE's Tenreyro speaks @John Fleming Memorial Lecture (London 17:00mgt)
       German Import Price Index
       Eurozone Sept Loans to non-Fnancial Corporations
       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout
       Separate Holidays in Singapore, New Zealand, India thru 28th
Monday,  Oct 28 US Sept Int'l Trade Deficit (8:30am et)
Chicago Fed Oct National Activity Index
US Sept Wholesale & Retail Inventories
Mario Draghi
speaks @ his Farewell event in his honor at his term end (16:00 cet; Frankfurt @ECB)
Dallas Fed Oct Manufacturing Survey  (10:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $45B 3-, & $42B 6-month Bills (that's it!)
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues a.m. et:
        Japan/Tokyo Oct CPI

        South Korea Nov Manufacturing BSI Index
        RBA Gov Lowe speaks (Canberra)
        South Africa Sept Private Sector Credit, Q3 Unemployment 
        Spanish Sept Retail Sales
        Italian Sept PPI
        BoE Sept Consumer Credit, Mortgage Approvals, M4 Money Supply
Tuesday   Oct 29 Redbook weekly store sales snapshot (8:55am et)
S&P Case Shiller Aug 20-city Home Price Index  (9am et)
Fed Reserve Bk of Chicago Housing Symposium (FRB Chicago Detroit Branch)
Boeing CEO Muilenberg testifies @Senate Commerce Cmte on 737 Max Certification
FOMC 2-day Meeting  Starts
Conference Board's Oct Consumer Confidence/Expectations (10am et)
US Sept Pending Home Sales Index
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
        Japan Sept Retail Trade

        UK BRC Oct Shop Price Index
        Aussie Q3 CPI, HIA New Home Sales
        BoJ Q4 Outlook Report
        French Q3 GDP
        German Oct Unemployment Report/Claims, CPI, HICP
        South Africa Budget Balance
        Swiss ZEW Oct Conditions/Expectations
        Eurozone Business/Industrial/Services/Consumer Oct Confidence
Wed.,       Oct 30 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications (7am et)
ADP US Oct Private Employnment Report (8:15am et)
US Q3 GDP/Business Investment/Household Spending/PCE (8:30am)
US Treasury Refunding Announcement (11am et)
BoC (Canada) MPC Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Report + Press Conference
Boeing (BA) CEO Muilenberg testifies @US House Transportation Cmte (D.C. 10am et)
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates/Heating Oil/Refinery Report (10:30am et)
Atlanta FRB/Chicago/Booth+Stanford Univ Survey of Business Uncertainty (11am et)
ECB's Lautenschlager speaks @"Mein Europe" Univ of Dusseldorf+KAS (Germany)
FOMC Interest Rates Decision  (2pm et)
FOMC Chief Powell Press Conference
(2:30pm et)
ECB's Enria speaks @Centre for European Reform event (London 21:05 cet)
Brazil Interest Rate Decision, Fx Flows
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
New Zealand Sept Building Permits, ANZ Oct Activity Outlook, Business Confidence
        South Korea Sept Industrial Production, Services Output, REtail Sales
        Japan Sept Industrial Production
        UK Lloyds Oct Business Barometer
        Aussie Sept Building Approvals, Private Sector Credit/Export & Import Price Index
        China Oct Manufacturing/Non-Manufacturing/Composite PMI
        Singapore Sept Bank Lending, Q3 Business Expectations
        German Oct CPI
        BoJ MPC Interest Rate/QE   Decisions, Official Reserves (10/31 local time), Aug Vehicle Production, Sept Construction Orders, Housing Starts, Consumer Confidence
        India Sept Federal Fiscal Deficit
        Wards US Oct Total Vehicle Sales
        ECB's de Guindos keynotes @Deusto Business School Conference (Bilboa Spain)
        Spain Q3 GDP, Aug Current Account 
        French CPI, HICP
        Hong Kong Q3 GDP
        SNB (Swiss) Announces 18Q3 Currency Allocation
        Canada CFIB Oct Business Barometer
        Eurozone Q3 GDP, Oct CPI, HICP, Sept Unemploynment Rate
        Italian Q3 GDP
        ESCB (European System of [National] Central Banks +BoE & ECB) Research Cluster on Monetary Econonics 3rd Annual Workshop (London thru 11/01)
Thurs.      Oct 31 Challenger Oct Lay-offs (7:30am et;   skewed by GM strike)
US weekly Jobless Claims (8:30am et)
US Sept Personal Income/Spending/PCE  
19Q3 ECI--Employment Cost Index
Brazil Unemployment Rate, Sept Budget Balance
Canada Aug GDP, Sept IPPI, RMPI
Financial System of the Future Conference from GA State Univ & FRB Atlanta (Atlanta GA thru 11/01)
Chicago Oct PMI (9:45am et)
SNB Chief Jordan speaks on pension fund challenges (Bern, Suisse)
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (10:30am et;  w/e 10/25)
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills (11:30am et values to be announced 10/29)
Fed Reserve Senior Loan Officer Survey
USDA Farm Prices (3pm et)
Fed Reserve weekly Balance Sheet (exploded on back of  increase to $120B)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
         Aussie AiG Oct Performance of Manufacturing, CSA Mnftg PMI, CoreLogic HPI
         Japan Sept Jobless Rate, Nikkei Manufacturing PMI
         South Korea Oct Trade Balance, CPI, Nikkei Manufacturing PMI
         Aussie Q3 PPI, Oct RBA Commodity Index   
         China Caixin Oct Manufacturing PMI
         India Oct Nikkei Markit Manufacturing PMI
         Japan Oct Vehicle Sales
         Hong Kong Sept Retail Sales
         Swiss Oct CPI, HICP, Sept Retail Sales, Oct Manufacturing PMI
         UK Oct Markit Manufacturing PMI
         Brazil Sept Industrial Production, Markit Oct Manufacturing PMI
Friday,     Nov 01 South Africa Oct Total Vehicle Sales
US Oct. Unemployment Report/Continuing Claims/Participation (8:30am et)
Canada RBC Manufacturing PMI
US Oct Markit Manufacturing PMI (9:45am et)
US ISM Manufacturing Index/Orders/Shipments/Prices Paid/Employment (10am et)
US Sept. Construction Spending
US Oct Vehicle Sales (ex-Ford, GM)
Mexico Oct Markit Manufacturing PMI
NY Fed's Williams participates in Newark (NJ) Anchor Collaborative Roundtable (nnon)
Baker-Hughes weekly Rig count (w/e 10/25)
Fed V Chair Clarida speech on "The U.S., Japan & the Global Economy" (1pm et; Japan Society NY)
Fed V. Chair Quarles speech on "Frederich Hayek & the Price System" @9th Wm. F. buckley Jr Program at Yale Univ (New Haven, CT; 1pm et)
Fed's Williams moderated discussion @Rutgers Business School (Newark NJ 2:30pm)
Brazil Oct Trade Balance
Saturday, Nov 02
      WEEKS AHEAD: 11/05  RBA (Aussie) MPC Meets
                                     11/07   BoE MPC Meets
                                     11/11   US Veterans Day  Treasury Market Closed
                                     11/12   RBNZ (New Zealand) MPC Meets
                                     11/14   Banco de Mexico MPC Meets

*FOMC 2019 Voting Members:  Chairperson Jerome Powell, as of 02/05/18, and ALL members of the FOMC Board of Governors are permanent voters: That includes Randall Quarles, & Lael Brainard, Richard Clarida, Gov Bowman, (Senate confirmed 09/12/19) plus New York Fed Pres, currently John Williams (Formerly of the San Francisco Fed) who replaced William Dudley, who retired from the bank on June 15, 2018.:New, revolving Regional Fed Bank leaders who are voters for 2018: Atlanta Fed Pres. Raphael Bostic, new in August 2017 (replaced Dennis Lockhart), former McKinsey exec Thomas Barkin, who assumed the title of Pres of Richmond Fed on 01/01/18. San Francisco Fed named Mary Daly Pres/CEO as of 10/1/2018, who'll be a voter until Feb. The hole in the San Francisco Fed's hierarchy resulted in Esther George--a very vocal hawk--becoming a voting member of the FOMC, but she steps aside as of Mary Daly's swearing in, and returns as a voter in Feb 2019. Cleveland Fed's voter, Loretta Mester, a hawk, who wants rates raised at a quicker pace because she believes the Fed has, already, fallen behind the curve.  Richmond wound up with an opening, after Jeff Lacker resigned, in early April 2017, when it became known he'd (unintentionally) leaked sensitive FOMC discussions to Medley Advisors. Richmond operated with an Interim Pres, Mark L Mullinix, while searching for its new leader, Thomas Barkin, who arrived Jan 1st 2018.. Dissenters at the Dec. 2017 Meeting, Neel Kashkari & Charles Evans, are no longer voters in 2018.
               * HICP used in Europe, means Harmonized Index of Consumer Price