wall street in advance

January/February 2019  Economic Statistics
and Other Economic Influences
TUESDAYS:
                Weekly Chain Store Sales*
                 Average Hourly Earnings*
                 API Weekly Gas/Oil Stockpiles Report*  ** (4:30p.m.)
    WEDNESDAYS:
                 Mortgage Applications  Data
                 EIA Weekly Report on Gas & Oil Stockpiles* (10a.m.)
    THURSDAYS:
                 Weekly Unemployment Report*
                  Weekly Mutual Fund Flows*
                   Natural Gas Storage Levels* (a.m.)

 *Except Holidays    ** As of 1/09         All Dates Subject to Change:
Sunday,   Jan 20     OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et
        China Q4 GDP, Dec Industrial Production & Profts, Retail Sales, Fixed Asset & Property Investment, Jobless Rate
        China NBS (Bureau of Statistiics) Press Conference
       Japan Reuters Jan Tankan Index, Dec Dept & Convenience Store Sales
        Aussie HIA New Home Sales
        UK Jan Rightmove House Prices
        Germany Dec PPI
        Russia GDP
Monday, Jan 21 Martin Luther King Jr US Holiday --ALL US Markets Closed
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et
        South Korea Q4 GDP, Dec PPI
        Hong Kong Dec CPI
        Japan Dec Supermarket & Tokyo Condo Sales
        World Economic Forum Annual (sans Trump & Macron; Davos Switzerland thru 25th)
         Spain Trade Balance
         UK Dec Jobless Claims, Claimant Count, Nov Avg Weekly Earnings, ILO Nov Unemployment Rate/Change, Public Finances, Central Gov't NCR
        German Jan ZEW Survey of Current Situation/Expectations/Sentiment
Tuesday,  Jan 22 Canada Nov Wholesale & Manufacturing Sales
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot
NAR Dec Existing Home Sales
US Treasury Auctions $42B 3-, & $39B 6-month Bills
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed a.m. et:
        Japan Dec Trade Balance, Adj Merchandise Trade Balance, Nov all Industry Activity
        UK CBI Jan Reported & Total Orders, Selling Prices, Business Optimism, Jan Industrial Trends 
        BoJ MPC Rate Decision (01/23 local time)
        Singapore Dec CPI
        BoJ Gov Kuroda press conference follows Meeting
        So. Africa Dec CPI
Wed.,       Jan 23 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications
Canada Nov Retail Sales
FHFA Nov House Price Index (9am et)
Richmond Fed Jan Manufacturing Index (10am et)
Brazil Fx Flows
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et
         Aussie Jan Manufcturing, Services, Composite PMI , Dec Unemployment Rate/ Change/Participation Rate/Full-, & Part-time Employment
         Japan Nikkei Jan Manufacturing PMI, Dec Trade Balance
         Singapore URA QoQ Property Index
         New Zealand Dec Credit Card Spending
         Norges Bank (Norway) MPC Announces Rate Decision
         French Jan Business Survey
         Markit Jan.Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMI
         ECB MPC Rate Decisions   (01/24 local time)
         Russia Fx Reserves, PPI
         ECB Chief Draghi press conference (local time 1/24)
Thurs.      Jan 24 US weekly Jobless Claims
Brazil CAGED Net Payroll Jobs
Mexican Nov IGAE Economic Activity & Bi-weekly CPI
Markit Flash Jan Manufacturing, Services, Composite PMI
IMF's Adrian on Roundtable as dir. of Monetary & Caital Markets Dept (NY)
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (10:30am et w/e 01/18)
K.C. Fed Jan Manufacturing Index (11am)
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates Report (11:30am et)
US Refunding Announcement (11am et)
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills (amounts not yet announced  11:30am et)
Fed weekly Balance Sheet & Weekly US Money Supply (4:30pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
        New Zealand Migration, Visitor Arrivals
        Japan Jan Tokyo CPI
        Singapore Dec Industrial Production
        Riksbank (Sweden) Exec Board meets, no rate decision expected
       German Jan IFO Business Assessment, Expectations
        UK Gross Mortgage Approvals, CBI Jan Distributive Trades Survey
        India Fx Reserves
        Russia Retail Sales & Dec Unemployment Rate
        ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
Friday,     Jan 25 US Dec Durable Goods Orders/Shipments (Only IF gov't shutdown ends)
US Dec. New Home Sales  (Only IF gov't shutdown ends)
Canada Nov Budget Balance
Brazil Federal Tax Revenue
Baker-Hughes US/North American Rig Count (1pm et)
Brazil Holiday--Sao Paulo Anniversary
Sat.          Jan 26
Sun.          Jan 27     OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
        BoJ Minutes of its Dec. 19--20, 2018 Meeting
        Riksbank Dpty Gov af Jochnick speaks on forthcoming normalization of monetary policy, how households & the economy will be impacted when the repo rate is increased and the bank reduces its Gov't bond holdings (Stockholm)
         German Dec Retail Sales
          Japan Dec Corporate Service Prices
          Hong Kong Dec Trade Balance
          Eurozone Dec Private Sector Loans
          UK Jan Nationwide House Price Index
          China Dec Industrial Profits
          Brazil Dec Current Account, Foreign Direct Investment
Monday,   Jan 28 Chicago Fed National Activity Index  (8:30am et)
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $42B 3-, &  $39B 6-month Bills (11am et)
US Treasury Auctions $40B 2-year & $41B 5-year Note (1pm et)
Australia holiday
     OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
          New Zeland Dec Trade Balance
          Aussie NAB Dec Business Conditions/Confidence
         Swiss Dec Imports/Exports/Watch Exports/Trade Balance
          Spain 18Q4 Unemployment Rate
          Italian PPI
          Brazil Dec Bank Lending
          Paris FinTech Forum with Riksbank Gov Ingves, ECB's Nowotny, IMF's Lagarde +other Central Bankers (to 30th)
          BoE Economist Haldane is panelist at Society of Professional Economists "Women in Economics" Event (London)
         
Tuesday,   Jan 29 FOMC 2-day Meeting Begins
US Int'l Trade Deficit
US Dec Adv Retail Inventories
US Dec Wholesale Inventories
Redbook weekly store sales shapshot
S&P CoreLogic/Case-Shiller Nov Home Price Index
Dallas Fed's Services Revs & TX Service Sector Outlook
Conference Board's Jan Consumer Confidence/Expectations  (10am et)
US Treasury Auctions $26B 52-week Bills & $20B 2-year FRN (11:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $32B 7-year Notes (1pm et)
Pres Trump will NOT deliver State of the Union Address
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
         BoJ Summary of Opinions from board members at Jan 22--23 policy meeting
         So. Korea Feb Manufacturing BSI Index
         Japan Dec Retail Trade & Jan Consumer Confidence Index
         UK BRC Jan Shop Price index
         Aussie 18Q4 CPI
         French 18Q4 GDP
         German GfK Feb Consumer Confidence & BDec Import Price Index
         French Dec Consumer Spending
         Spain Dec Retail Sales
         Credit Suisse Jan Swiss Survey of Expectations & ZEW Jan Expectations
         BoE Net Dec Consumer Credit, UK Dec Mortgage Approvals, M4 Money Supply
         Eurozone Jan Economic Confidence/Business, Industrial, Services Climate
         German Jan CPI +HICP
        
Wed.         Jan 30 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Apps
ADP Jan Non-Farmn Employment Report
US 18Q4 GDP + PCE (2nd guess, with bean counters on furlough, so subject to gov't reopening 8:30am et)
Treasury Refunding Announcement (8:30am et)
NAR Dec Pending Home Sales
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distilates Status (10:30am et)
FOMC post-Meeting Statement Released  (2pm et)
FOMC Chief Jerome Powell Press Conference (2:30pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
         Japan Dec Loans & Discounts, Jan Foreign Buying of Japanese Stocks & Bonds, Dec Industrial Production
         So Korea Dec Industrial Production, Services Sector Output, & Retail Sales
         China Dec Swift Global Payments
         UK Jan GfK Consumer Confidence & Lloyds business Barometer
         Aussie 18Q4 Import/Export Price Index, Dec Private Sector Credit, Housing Credit
         China Jan Manufacturing, Non-Manufacturing & Composite PMI
         BoJ Dpty Gov Amamiya speaks to business leaders (Shimonoseki Japan)
         Singapore Business Expectations, Dec Bank Lending, 18Q4 Unemployment Rate
         Japan Dec Vehicle Production, Housing Starts, Construction Orders
         German Jan Unemployment Rate/Claims/Change
         French, Spanish, CPI & HICP
         Eurozone 18Q4 GDP, Dec Unemployment Rate/Change
         Italy 18Q4 (Prelim) GDP, Monthly Unemployment
         So Africa Dec PPI
         India Dec Federal Fiscal Deficit
         Brazil Unemployment Rate
         So Africa Dec Trade Balance
         Canada Nov '18 GDP, Dec Industrial Product Price, Raw Materials Price
Thursday, Jan 31 Challenger Jan. US Lay-offs
Brazil Dec Budget Balance
US weekly Jobless Claims
US Nov. Personal Income/Outlays/PCE (subject to gov't reopening)
US 18Q4 ECI
Jan Chicago PMI
Canada Jan CFIB Business Barometer, Nov GDP, Dec IPPI, RMPI
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills
USDA Farm Prices (if gov't reopens)
BoC Dpty Gov Wilkins speaks on "How the Labour Market is changinng & how it influences monetary policy:" (Toronto)
Fed Reserve weekly Balance Sheet & US weekly Money Supply (4:30pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
        Aussie AiG Jan Performance of Manufacturing Index, CBA Jan Manufacturing PMI, CoreLogic Jan HPI, PPI
         So. Korea Jan CPI, Trade Balance, Nikkei Manufacturing PMI
         Japan Dec Jobless Rate, Jan Official Reserve Assets
         Ward's Total Jan US Vehicle Sales
         Aussie 18Q4 PPI
         Japan Nikkei Jan Manufacturing PMI, Jan Vehicle Sales
         India Nikkei Jan Manufacturing PMI
         China Caixan Jan Manufacturing PMI
         Aussie RBA Jan Commodity Index
         Swiss SECO Jan Consumer Confidence, SVME Manufacturing PMI. Dec Retail Sales
         Eurozone, France, German, Italian, Markit Jan Manufacturing PMI
         UK Markit Jan Manufacturing PMI
         Eurozone Jan CPI
         Brazil Jan Trade Balance
Friday,      Feb 01 US Jan. Motor Vehicle Sales
US Jan. Unemployment Report (8:30am expect uptick on Fed contract workers laid off)
US Avg Hourly Earnings/Weekly Earnings
RBC Jan Canadian Manufacturing PMI
US PMI Manufacturing Index  (9:45a,m et)
US ISM Manufacturing Index/New Orders/Prices Paid/Employment  (10am et)
US Dec Construction Spending
U.M. Jan Consumer Sentiment (10am et)
Mexico Markit Jan Manufacturing PMI
Baker-Hughes wkly US/No.Am Rig Count (1pm--last week 1st serious decline in ages)
Saturday, Feb 02 BoP 18Q4 Current Account Balance
China Caixin Jan Services PMI

      WEEKS AHEAD:   02/05  RBA (Aussie) MPC Meets
                                       02/06    BoC Dpty Gov Lane  speech on "Canadian Approach to Foreign Reserve Mgnmnt" @ Peterson Institute for Int'l Economics (D.C.)
                                                   Fed's Powell opens, & answer questions via livestream, via Fed Bk of Richmond Charlotte branch, "Conversation with the Chairman: a Teacher Town Hall Meeting"
                                       02/07    BoE MPC Meets, releases inflation report
                                                   Bank of Mexico MPC Meets
                                       02/09    BoC (Canada) MPC Meets
                                       02/12    RBNZ (New Zealand) MPC Meets
                                       02/13    Riksbank (Sweden) MPC Meets & Releases Policy Statement
                                                   Fed's Mester "A View from the Federal Reserve" before "What's Next for Kentucky in the Global Economy," hosted by U of KY Gatton College of Biz & Economics

*FOMC 2018 Voting Members:  Chairperson Jerome Powell, as of 02/05/18, and ALL members of the FOMC Board of Governors are permanent voters: That includes Randall Quarles, & Lael Brainard, newly (Sept) sworn in Richard Clarida, plus New York Fed Pres, currently John Williams (Formerly of the San Francisco Fed) who replaced William Dudley, who retired from the bank on June 15, 2018.:New, revolving Regional Fed Bank leaders who are voters for 2018: Atlanta Fed Pres. Raphael Bostic, new in August 2017 (replaced Dennis Lockhart), former McKinsey exec Thomas Barkin, who assumed the title of Pres of Richmond Fed on 01/01/18, plus San Francisco Fed, without a leader, since Williams left for NY in July, named Mary Daly Pres/CEO as of 10/1/2018, who'll be a voter until Feb. The hole in the San Francisco Fed's hierarchy resulted in Esther George--a very vocal hawk--becoming a voting member of the FOMC, but she steps aside as of Mary Daly's swearing in, and returns as a voter in Feb 2019. Cleveland Fed's voter, Loretta Mester, a hawk, who wants rates raised at a quicker pace because she believes the Fed has, already, fallen behind the curve.  Richmond wound up with an opening, after Jeff Lacker resigned, in early April 2017, when it became known he'd (unintentionally) leaked sensitive FOMC discussions to Medley Advisors. Richmond operated with an Interim Pres, Mark L Mullinix, while searching for its new leader, Thomas Barkin, who arrived Jan 1st 2018.. Dissenters at the Dec. 2017 Meeting, Neel Kashkari & Charles Evans, are no longer voters in 2018.
               * HICP used in Europe, means Harmonized Index of Consumer Price