wall street in advance

February 2020  Economic Statistics
and Other Economic Influences

                Weekly Chain Store Sales*
                 Average Hourly Earnings*
                 API Weekly Gas/Oil Stockpiles Report*  **
Mortgage Applications  Data
                 EIA Weekly Report on Gas & Oil Stockpiles* (10a.m.)
                 Weekly Unemployment Report*
                  Weekly Mutual Fund Flows*
                   Natural Gas Storage Levels* (a.m.)

 *Except Holidays    ** As of 1/09         All Dates Subject to Change:
Sunday,    Feb 09     OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
        China Jan New Yuan Loans/Aggregate Financing, Foreign Direct Investment

        New Zealand REINZ Jan House Sales
        Japan Jan Bank Lending, Housing Loans, Dec Trade Balance, Current Account
        China Jan CPI & PPI
        Swiss Jan Unemployment Rate, CPI/HICP
        Italian Dec Industrial Production
        Eurozone Sentix Feb Investor Confidence
Monday,   Feb 10 MBA Q4 Mortgage Delinquencies & Foreclosures
Fed Gov Bowman on "Empowering Community Banks" @ABA NCCB Conference (8:15am et  Kissimmee, FL)
Canada Jan Housing Starts/Dec Building Permits
Conference Board's US Jan Employment Trends Index
US Treasury Auctions $45B 3-, & $39B 6-month Bills (11:30am et)
Philly Fed's Harker on Economic Outlook @Lyons CEEE Economic Forecast (Univ. of Delaware, Newark DE 2pm edt)
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
         New Zealand Gov't 6-month Financial Statements, ANZ Jan Truckometer
         Aussie Dec Home Loans, Jan NAB Business Confidence/Conditions
         UK BRC Jan Like-for-Like Sales
         UK Dec/Q4 (P) NIESR GDP, Dec Industrial & Manufacturing Production, Construction Output, Dec Trade Balance, Q4 Gross Fixed Capital Formation. Gov't Spending, Dec Index of Services, Industrial + Manufacturing Production, Business Investment, Private Consumption
        So. Africa Q4 Unemployment Rate, Dec Manufacturing Production
        Russia Dec Trade Balance
        Mexico Dec Industrial Production
        ECB Chief Lagarde introduces ECB Annual Report 2018 @EU Parliament (Strasbourg FR 15:00 cet;  02/11 local time)
        NFIB (Jan) Small Business Optimism Index (6am et)
        Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes
Tuesday,  Feb 11 Redbook weekly store sales snapshot
New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Hopefuls Primary
FOMC Chief Powell SemiAnnual Testimony on Monetary Policy & the Economy @US House FinServices Cmte (10am et)
JOLTS (Dec Job Tunrover & Openings 10:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $38B 3-year Notes  (11am et)
NY FRB relesaes Q4 Household Debt & Credit Report (+blog analysis)
BoE's Haskel Lecture @Univ of Nottingham
ECB's Lane keynotes Finanzmartklausur 2020 by Wirtschaftsrat der CDU e.V. (Berlin)
US WASDE Report (noon et)
Fed Gov for Bank Supervision Quarles on Bank Supervision for Yale Law School Dean's Lecture (12:15pm;  New Haven, CT)
MN Fed's Kashkari Town Hall w/Q&A hosted by U of MT Bureau of Business & Economic Research (BBER) Economic Outlook Seminar (2:15pm et   Kalispell Montana)
Japan Holiday (02/11 local time)
     OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
         RBA's Heath speaks (Sydney)
         New Zealand Jan Card/Electronic Card   Spending
         So. Korean Jan Unemployment Rate
         RBNZ (New Zealand) MPC sets Official Cash Interest Rate, Press Conference  (02/12 local time)
         Singapore Dec Retail Sales
         German Jan Wholesale Price Index
         Japan Jan Machine Tool Orders
         S.F. Fed's Daly & ECB's Lane fireside chat @FT's 5th European Financial Forum (Dublin Ireland 10:40cet)
         Lords EU Financial Affairs sub-cmte on Financial Services post-Brexit (Parliament)
         Eurozone Dec Industrial Production        
         OPEC Monthly Report
(6am et)
         India Dec Industrial Production & Manufaturing Output, Jan CPI
Wed.        Feb 12 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Apps (7am;  w/e 02/07)
Brazil Dec Retail Sales, Fx Flows
UK Autumn Budget
Fed's Harker on Economic Outlook  @Economic Forecast Breakfast of The Main Line Foundation w/Q&A (Malvern PA 8:30am edt)
FOMC Chief Powell Testimony on Monetary Policy & Economy @US Senate Cmte on Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs  (10am et)
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillate/Refinery Report (10:30a.m.; w/e 02/07)
US Treasury Auctions $27B 10-year Notes (1pm et)
US Treasury Jan Budget Statement (2pm et)
Fed's Kaplan discusses national & global issues w/former NY FRB Pres/CEO Wmm Dudley (7:30pm et @Dallas FRB)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
        Japan Jan Corporate Goods Price Index (PPI)
        UK RICS Jan House Price Balance
        RBA Gov Lowe Panelist
        China Foreign Direct Investment
        French Q4 Unemployment Rate
        German Jan CPI, HICP
        South Africa Dec Mining/Gold Production
        Russia Fx Reserves
        ECB's Lane keynotes "Gold Medal of Honourary Patronage Awards Ceremony" @Trinity College Philosophical Society (13:00 cet  Dublin)
Thurs,      Feb 13 US Annual Benchmark Revision to PPI
US Jan CPI/Core CPI (8:30am et)
US weekly Jobless Claims/Continuing Claims
NY Fed hosts "Youth Poverty in Puerto Rico and the US Virgina Islands:Updates & Policy Recommendations  (San Juan PR)
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report  (10:30am;  w/e 02/07)
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills (11:30am et;  values not available at post)
US Treasury Auctions $19B 30-year Notes (1pm et)
ECB's Panetta panelist @Louiss [sic] Univ. (Rome Italy 18:00 cet)
Mexican Central Bank sets Feb Overnight Interest Rate
ECB's Lane lectures @Academy Discourse via Royal Irish Academy (Dublin 19:00 cet)
NY Fed's Williams moderated discussion @NY Bankers Ass'n (5:30pm est; NY)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
         Japan Jan PPI,
Dec Tertiary Industry Index
         So. Korea Jan Import/Export Price Indexes
         New Zealand Jan PMI/FPI
         India Jan WPI Food/Fuel/Manufacturing Inflation
         German Q4 GDP
         Swiss Jan PPI & IPPI (Import Prices)
         Spain Jan CPI/HICP
         Italy Dec Trade Balance
         Eurozone Q4 GDP, Unemployment Report/Change, Dec Trade Balance
         India Bank Loan & Deposit Growth, Fx Reserves, Trade Balance
         Japan Dpty Gov Amamiya speaks
Friday,     Feb 14 US Jan (adv) Retail Sales (8:30am et)
US Jan Import & Export Price Indexes
Canada Jan Existing Home Sales (9am et)
US Jan Industrial/Manufacturing Production/Capacity Utilization
US Dec Business & Retail Inventories

U.M. Feb (P) Consumer Sentiment/Expectations (10am et)
Fed's Mester keynotes GIC 4th Financial Literacy Day: Understanding Global Markets & Finance (11:45am et; Sarasota FL) Sen Kent Conrad speaks on Dangerous Deficits (10:15am),  Nick Colas (10:15am et), David Kotok (12:30pm)
Baker-Hughes US/North America Rig Count (1pm et;  w/e 02/07)
Saturday, Feb 15
Sunday,    Feb 16     OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
        New Zealand Jan Performance of Services Index, Dec Net Migration (Aussie fire impact?)
       Japan 19Q4 GDP/Biz Spending/Private Consumption/CapEx, Dec (F) Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Jan Dept Store Sales
        Singapore 10Q4 GDP, Jan Trade Balance
        China Jan New Home Prices (COVID-19 strong, negative impact)
        UK Rightmove Feb House Prices (1st post-Brexit)
        Eurozone Dec Construction Output
        ECB's Lane on Statistics @Jt Banco de Portugal/Irving fisher Cmte on Central Bk Statistics & ECB Conference:"Bridging measurement challenges & analystical needs of external statistics : evolution or revolution?" (Lisbon Portugal) 
Monday,   Feb 17 US Markets Closed for Washington's Birthday--Presidents' Day
Canada Family Day Holiday
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
        China FDI, New Loans/Growth, Total Financing
        RBA (Aussie) Minutes of Feb MPC Meeting
        Hong Kong Jan Unemloyment Rate/Change

        UK CBI Feb Trends in Selling Prices & Total Order Trends
        EU 25 Jan New Car Registrations
        UK ILO Dec Unemployment Rate/Change
/App Count/Avg Weekly Earnings
        Eurozone Feb ZEW Survey of Current Situation/Expectations/Economic Sentiment
        Eurogroup Meets, Jan Fx Reserve Assets
       ECB's Panetta participates in plenary session @European Parliamentary Week (Brussels Belgium)
Tuesday   Feb 18 Russia Jan Industrial Production (8am et)
Canada Dec Manufacturing Sales, Dec Int'l Securities Transactions  (8:30am et)
NY Fed/Empire State Feb Manufacturing Survey
NAHB Feb Housing Market Index
(10am et)
US Treasury Auctions $45B 3-, & $39B 6-month Bills +$40B 21-day Bills (11:30am et)
US Dec TICS (4pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
        Japan Dec Machine Orders, Jan Trade Balance

        Aussie Jan Skilled Vacancies, 4Q19 Wage Price Index
        Japan Jan Supermarket Sales
        German Jan WPI
        Eurozone Dec Current Account
        UK Jan PPI, Retail Price Index, CPI, CPIH, Dec House Price Index, New Car Registrations
        ECB Governing Council non-Monetary Policy Meeting (Frankfurt)
Wed.        Feb 19 MBA weekly Mortgage/;Refinance Apps (7am et)
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot
Fed's Bostic on Eco Outlook (8:10am et; Atlanta GA)
US Jan Housing Starts/Building Permits (8:30am et)
Canada Jan CPI/Core CPI
Fed's Kashkari speaks  (11:45am et; Mankato MN)
FOMC Jan 28/29 Meeting Minutes Released (2pm et)
Fed's Barkin on Monetary Policy Framework @Duke University (4:30pm et; Durham NC)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a..m. et:
         New Zealand 4Q19 PPI
         Aussie Jan Unemployment Rate/Change/Participation, RBA Jan Fx Transactions
         PBoChina Feb 1-, & 5-year Prime Rate, Jan SWIFT Global Payments,
         Hong Kong Jan CPI
         French & Swiss Sovereign Debt Rated by S&P
         Japan Jan Machine Tool Orders
         ECB Publishes Account of Jan.22--23 MPC Meeting
         ECB's de Guindos
@European Banking Federation Cmte Meeting (Frankfurt DE)
         Russia Jan Unemployment Rate/Change/Wages, Retail Sales, Fx Reserves
         Swiss Jan Trade Balance (Imports/Exports/Watch Exports)
         German GfK Mar Consumer Confidence, Jan PPI
         Japan Jan Convenience Store Sales
         UK Jan Retail Sales/Core Retail Sales        
         ECB's Enria
speaks @Jt European Banking Institute/Goethe Univ/Institute for Monetary & Financial Stabilities Annual Conference (Frankfurt DE)
Thurs.      Feb 20 US weekly Jobless Claims/Continuing claims (8:30am et)
Canada Teranet/National Bank Jan New Home Price Index
ADP Canada non-Farm Employment/Change
Ag Sec'y Purdue speaks @USDA 96th Annual Agricultural Outlook Forum: The Roots of Prosperity (Arlington VA thru 21st)
Philly Fed Feb Mnftg Index/Business Conditions/Outlook/CapEx/Orders/Prices Paid
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (10:30am et; w/e 02/14)
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates/Refineries Report (11am et;   w/e 02/14)
US Treasury to Auction 4- & 8- week Bills (values not announced by post; 11:30am et)
US Treasury to Auction $8B 30-year TIPS (1pm et)
"A Conversation with (Fed's)Tom Barkin" @Harvard Univ (1:20pm Cambridge MA)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
        Ausie Feb CBA Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMI
        Japan Jan CPI/Core CPI, Jibun Bank Feb Mnftg/Services/Composite PMI, Dec All Industry Activity
         Swiss 4Q19 Industrial & ConstructionOutput, Jan Money Supply
         Eurozone, France, Germany, Feb Mnftg/Services/Composite PMI
         Italian Dec New Industrial Orders/Sales
         UK Central Gov't Jan NCR, Markit/CIPS Feb Mnftg/Services/Composite PMI, Jan Public Sector Net Borrowing
         Eurozone & Italian Jan CPI/Core CPI/HICP
Friday,     Feb 21 Canada Dec Retail Sales   (8:30am et)
US/Markit Feb (P) Mnftg/Services/Composite PMI (9:45am et)
NAR Jan Existing Home Sales (10am et)
Fed Gov Brainard & Fed's Bostic panelists discussing "Monetary Policy for the Next Recession" @Chicago Booth US Monetary Policy Forum (10:15am et; NY)
Fed's Kaplan opens Dallas FRB/Texas A&M "Room to Grow: Housing for a New Economy" (8:35am ct; Dallas FRB)
ECB's Lane Keynotes @Booth School US Monetary Policy Forum (NY noon et)
Baker-Hughes weekly Oil & Gas US/North American Rig Count (1pm et;   w/e 02/14)
Fed Gov Clarida panelist on "Financial Markets & Monetary Policy: Is There a Hall of Mirrors Problem?" w/BLK's Rick Reider & BoE's Tenreyro @Booth US Monetary Polcy Forum moderated by Fed's Mester (1:30pm et; NY)
Saturday, Feb 22 ECB's Lagarde & Panetta @G20 FinMins & Central Bank Governors Meeting (Riyadh Saudi Arabia thru 23rd)
Nevada Democratic Presidential Caucuses
          WEEKS AHEAD:
 02/27    Chicago Fed's Evans keynotes @GIC Member Event (Mexico City 11:30am et)
                                          03/04     ECB MPC Meeting + Press Conference
                                    03/17--18    FOMC Meets
                                    03/18--19    BoJ Meets
                                          03/26     BoE MPC Meets

*FOMC 2019 Voting Members:  Chairperson Jerome Powell, as of 02/05/18, and ALL members of the FOMC Board of Governors are permanent voters: That includes Randall Quarles, & Lael Brainard, Richard Clarida, Gov Bowman, (Senate confirmed 09/12/19) plus New York Fed Pres, currently John Williams (Formerly of the San Francisco Fed) who replaced William Dudley, who retired from the bank on June 15, 2018.:New, revolving Regional Fed Bank leaders who are voters for 2018: Atlanta Fed Pres. Raphael Bostic, new in August 2017 (replaced Dennis Lockhart), former McKinsey exec Thomas Barkin, who assumed the title of Pres of Richmond Fed on 01/01/18. San Francisco Fed named Mary Daly Pres/CEO as of 10/1/2018, who'll be a voter until Feb. The hole in the San Francisco Fed's hierarchy resulted in Esther George--a very vocal hawk--becoming a voting member of the FOMC, but she steps aside as of Mary Daly's swearing in, and returns as a voter in Feb 2019. Cleveland Fed's voter, Loretta Mester, a hawk, who wants rates raised at a quicker pace because she believes the Fed has, already, fallen behind the curve.  Richmond wound up with an opening, after Jeff Lacker resigned, in early April 2017, when it became known he'd (unintentionally) leaked sensitive FOMC discussions to Medley Advisors. Richmond operated with an Interim Pres, Mark L Mullinix, while searching for its new leader, Thomas Barkin, who arrived Jan 1st 2018.. Dissenters at the Dec. 2017 Meeting, Neel Kashkari & Charles Evans, are no longer voters in 2018.
               * HICP used in Europe, means Harmonized Index of Consumer Price