wall street in advance

February 2020  Economic Statistics
and Other Economic Influences

                Weekly Chain Store Sales*
                 Average Hourly Earnings*
                 API Weekly Gas/Oil Stockpiles Report*  **
Mortgage Applications  Data
                 EIA Weekly Report on Gas & Oil Stockpiles* (10a.m.)
                 Weekly Unemployment Report*
                  Weekly Mutual Fund Flows*
                   Natural Gas Storage Levels* (a.m.)

 *Except Holidays    ** As of 1/09         All Dates Subject to Change:
Sunday,    Feb 16     OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
        New Zealand Jan Performance of Services Index, Dec Net Migration (Aussie fire impact?)
       Japan 19Q4 GDP/Biz Spending/Private Consumption/CapEx, Dec (F) Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Jan Dept Store Sales
        Singapore 10Q4 GDP, Jan Trade Balance
        China Jan New Home Prices (COVID-19 strong, negative impact)
        UK Rightmove Feb House Prices (1st post-Brexit)
        Eurozone Dec Construction Output
        ECB's Lane on Statistics @Jt Banco de Portugal/Irving fisher Cmte on Central Bk Statistics & ECB Conference:"Bridging measurement challenges & analystical needs of external statistics : evolution or revolution?" (Lisbon Portugal) 
Monday,   Feb 17 US Markets Closed for Washington's Birthday--Presidents' Day
Canada Family Day Holiday
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
        China FDI, New Loans/Growth, Total Financing
        RBA (Aussie) Minutes of Feb MPC Meeting
        Hong Kong Jan Unemloyment Rate/Change

        UK CBI Feb Trends in Selling Prices & Total Order Trends
        EU 25 Jan New Car Registrations
        UK ILO Dec Unemployment Rate/Change
/App Count/Avg Weekly Earnings
        Eurozone Feb ZEW Survey of Current Situation/Expectations/Economic Sentiment
        Eurogroup Meets, Jan Fx Reserve Assets
       ECB's Panetta participates in plenary session @European Parliamentary Week (Brussels Belgium)
Tuesday   Feb 18 Russia Jan Industrial Production (8am et)
Canada Dec Manufacturing Sales, Dec Int'l Securities Transactions  (8:30am et)
NY Fed/Empire State Feb Manufacturing Survey
NAHB Feb Housing Market Index
(10am et)
US Treasury Auctions $45B 3-, & $39B 6-month Bills +$40B 21-day Bills (11:30am et)
US Dec TICS (4pm et)
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
        Japan Dec Machine Orders, Jan Trade Balance

        Aussie Jan Skilled Vacancies, 4Q19 Wage Price Index
        Japan Jan Supermarket Sales
        German Jan WPI
        Eurozone Dec Current Account
        UK Jan PPI, Retail Price Index, CPI, CPIH, Dec House Price Index, New Car Registrations
        ECB Governing Council non-Monetary Policy Meeting (Frankfurt)
Wed.        Feb 19 MBA weekly Mortgage/;Refinance Apps (7am et)
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot
Fed's Bostic on Eco Outlook (8:10am et; Atlanta GA)
US Jan Housing Starts/Building Permits (8:30am et)
Canada Jan CPI/Core CPI
Fed's Kashkari speaks  (11:45am et; Mankato MN)
FOMC Jan 28/29 Meeting Minutes Released (2pm et)
Fed's Barkin on Monetary Policy Framework @Duke University (4:30pm et; Durham NC)
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a..m. et:
         New Zealand 4Q19 PPI
         Aussie Jan Unemployment Rate/Change/Participation, RBA Jan Fx Transactions
         PBoChina Feb 1-, & 5-year Prime Rate, Jan SWIFT Global Payments,
         Hong Kong Jan CPI
         French & Swiss Sovereign Debt Rated by S&P
         Japan Jan Machine Tool Orders
         ECB Publishes Account of Jan.22--23 MPC Meeting
         ECB's de Guindos
@European Banking Federation Cmte Meeting (Frankfurt DE)
         Russia Jan Unemployment Rate/Change/Wages, Retail Sales, Fx Reserves
         Swiss Jan Trade Balance (Imports/Exports/Watch Exports)
         German GfK Mar Consumer Confidence, Jan PPI
         Japan Jan Convenience Store Sales
         UK Jan Retail Sales/Core Retail Sales        
         ECB's Enria
speaks @Jt European Banking Institute/Goethe Univ/Institute for Monetary & Financial Stabilities Annual Conference (Frankfurt DE)
Thurs.      Feb 20 US weekly Jobless Claims/Continuing claims (8:30am et)
Canada Teranet/National Bank Jan New Home Price Index
ADP Canada non-Farm Employment/Change
Ag Sec'y Purdue speaks @USDA 96th Annual Agricultural Outlook Forum: The Roots of Prosperity (Arlington VA thru 21st)
Philly Fed Feb Mnftg Index/Business Conditions/Outlook/CapEx/Orders/Prices Paid
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (10:30am et; w/e 02/14)
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates/Refineries Report (11am et;   w/e 02/14)
US Treasury to Auction 4- & 8- week Bills (values not announced by post; 11:30am et)
US Treasury to Auction $8B 30-year TIPS (1pm et)
"A Conversation with (Fed's)Tom Barkin" @Harvard Univ (1:20pm Cambridge MA)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
        Ausie Feb CBA Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMI
        Japan Jan CPI/Core CPI, Jibun Bank Feb Mnftg/Services/Composite PMI, Dec All Industry Activity
         Swiss 4Q19 Industrial & ConstructionOutput, Jan Money Supply
         Eurozone, France, Germany, Feb Mnftg/Services/Composite PMI
         Italian Dec New Industrial Orders/Sales
         UK Central Gov't Jan NCR, Markit/CIPS Feb Mnftg/Services/Composite PMI, Jan Public Sector Net Borrowing
         Eurozone & Italian Jan CPI/Core CPI/HICP
Friday,     Feb 21 Canada Dec Retail Sales   (8:30am et)
US/Markit Feb (P) Mnftg/Services/Composite PMI (9:45am et)
NAR Jan Existing Home Sales (10am et)
Fed Gov Brainard & Fed's Bostic panelists discussing "Monetary Policy for the Next Recession" @Chicago Booth US Monetary Policy Forum (10:15am et; NY)
Fed's Kaplan opens Dallas FRB/Texas A&M "Room to Grow: Housing for a New Economy" (8:35am ct; Dallas FRB)
ECB's Lane Keynotes @Booth School US Monetary Policy Forum (NY noon et)
Baker-Hughes weekly Oil & Gas US/North American Rig Count (1pm et;   w/e 02/14)
Fed Gov Clarida panelist on "Financial Markets & Monetary Policy: Is There a Hall of Mirrors Problem?" w/BLK's Rick Reider & BoE's Tenreyro @Booth US Monetary Polcy Forum moderated by Fed's Mester (1:30pm et; NY)
Saturday, Feb 22 ECB's Lagarde & Panetta @G20 FinMins & Central Bank Governors Meeting (Riyadh Saudi Arabia thru 23rd)
Nevada Democratic Presidential Caucuses
Sunday,    Feb 23 German Jan Import Prices
    OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m et:
        New Zealand 4Q19 Retail Sales, Credit & Electronic Card Spending
        German IFO Feb Business Climate/Expectations
        Singapore Jan CPI
        UK Feb Gross Mortgage Approvals
        Pres. Trump visiting India (thru 27th)
Monday,   Feb 24 Chicago Fed Jan National Activity Index  (8:30am et)
Canada Dec Wholesale Trade
Dallas Fed Feb Manufacturing Activity (10:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $45B 3-, & $39B 6-month Bills (11:30am et)
Fed's Mester on US Eco & Monetary Policy Outlook @36th NABE Monetary Policy Conference "20/20 Vision: Examing Policy Prescriptions in an Election Year" (3:30pm D.C. thru 25th)
Holidays in Japan, Russia & Brazil
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
        Japan Jan Corporate Services Price Index
        Singapore 4Q19 GDP
        German 4Q19 (F) GDP, Gov't Spending, Capital Investment, Private Consumption
        Swiss 4Q19 Employment Rate
        Hong Kong Jan Trade Balance
        UK CBI Feb Reported Sales, Total Distributed Reported Sales
        Mexican FY to July 12th, GDP, IGAE Dec Economic Activity
Tuesday,  Feb 25 Pres. David Malpass "View from the World Bank" @NABE Conference  (8am et)
Canada 4Q19 Corporate Profits (8:30am et)
FHFA  Dec House Price Index (9am et)
S&P CaseShiller 20-City Dec House Price Index
FRB 1st FinTech Innovation office hours (Atlanta GA FRB 10am et)
New England Study Group's "Effects of Sweetened Beverage Taxes in Philadlphia & Oakland: Fewer Beverage Purchases but Increased Cross-Border Shopping' (Boston FRB)
Conference Board US Feb Consumer Confidence/Present Situation/Expectations
Richmond FRB Feb Manufacturing/Services Index
US Treasury Auctions $26B 52-week Bills (11:30am et)
Bk of Canada's Lane speaks (Montreal 1pm et)
Fed V. Chair Clarida "View from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors: US Economic Outlook & Monetary Policy" @NABE (3pm et;  DC)
Democratic Presidential Hopefuls Debate (SouthCaroline)
Brazil Holiday (Carnival)
Fat Tuesday wraps Mardi Gras where celebrated
    OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
        UK BRC Feb Shop Price Index
        Aussie 4Q19 Construction Work Done
        BoJ CPI/Core CPI, Japan Jan Supermarket Sales
        Singapore Jan Industrial Production
        Hong Kong 4Q19 GDP
        Italian Jan Trade Balance
        German Jan Retail Sales
        Credit Suisse Feb ZEW Survey of Expectations
        ECB's Panetta speaks @Jt Deutsche Bundesbank/ECB/Chicago FRB Conference on Central Counterparty (CCP) Risk Management (Frankfurt Germany)
        ECB Chief Lagarde visits P.M. of Hesse State (Wiesbaden Germany)
        BoE Exec Dir of Markets, Andrew Hauser, speaks @Int'l Swaps & Derivatives  Ass'n/SIFMA Asset Mngmnt Grp Benchmark Strategies Forum (London)
Wed.        Feb 26 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications (7am et)
Ash Wednesday--Lent Begins
US Jan New Home Sales
(10am et)
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates/Refineries Report (10:30am// w/e 02/21)
US Treasury Auctions $18B reopened 2-year FRNS (11:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $41B 5-year Notes (1pm et)
Brazil Holiday
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
         New Zealand Jan Trade Balance, ANZ Feb Activity Outlook, Business Confidence
         Ausie 4Q19 Private CapEx
         South Korea Interest/Deposit Rate MPC Announcement
         S&P to Rate Swiss Sovereign Debt
         Spain Feb CPI/HICP
         UK Feb Nationwide House Price Index
         South Africa Jan PPI
         Eurozone Feb ZEW Business/Industrial/Services+Consumer Confidence/Expecta- tions
         ECB's Panetta
opens 4th meeting of the Euro Cyber Resilience Board (Frankfurt)
         ECB Board Member Schnabel speaks w/Q&A @Barclays Int'l Monetary Policy Event (London)
         ECB's Lane discussant @Conference on Euro area's growth in a weakened economic outlook: diagonsis & responses (Paris FR)
Thurs,      Feb 27 US Jan (P) Durable/Capital Goods Orders/Shipment/Prices/PCE (8:30am et)
US weekly Jobless Claims/Continuing Claims
US 4Q19 GDP/Business Invetment/Personal Consumption (PCE)
US Jan Pending Home Sales
  (10am et)
Canada 4Q19 Current Account
Cleveland FRB Women in Economics Symposium (Cleveland OH)
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report (w/e 02/21  10:30am et)
K.C. FRB Feb  Manufacturing Actvity (11am et)
Fed's Evans keynotes @GIC Member Event, along with several members of Banco de Mexico (Mexico City 11:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions 4-, & 8-week Bills (11:30am et; values not available at post)
US Treasury Auctions $32B 7-year Notes (1pm et)
ECB's de Guindos speaks at Jt Grupo Joly & Cooperatives Agro-Alimentarias de Andalucia (Sevilla Spain 17:00 cet)
ECB's Lane speaks @Centre for European Reform dinner (London;   20:30cet)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
        South Korea Jan Industrial Production, Service Sector Output
        Japan Jan Jobless Rate/Applicant-to-Job Ratio, Retail Trade, Tokyo Feb CPI, Jan (P) Industrial Production/March Forecast
        UK Feb Lloyds Business Barometer, GfK Consumer Confidence
        Aussie Jan Private Sector Credit
        Singapore Jan Bank Lending
        Japan Dec Vehicle Production, Jan Construction Orders, Housing Starts
        South Africa Jan Private Sector Credit
        Swiss Jan Retail Sales
        French 4Q19 GDP, Jan Consumer Spending, CPI/HICP
        German Feb Unemployment Rate/Change, CPI/HICP
        Spain Dec Current Account
        Italian Feb CPI/HICP
        India Bank Loan & Deposit Growth, 4Q19/FY19 GDP , Jan Infrastructure Output
        Eurozone Feb CPI
        BoE/London School of Economics Conference on Income Distribution, Wealth Distribution, & Central Bank Policies
        BoE's Cunliffe speech & panelist @China's Trade & Financial Globalisation Conference (16:15 cet  London)
        Canada Feb CFIB Business Barometer
Friday,     Feb 28 US Jan (Adv) Trade Balance   (8:30am et)
US Jan Personal Income/Spending/PCE/Deflator
US Jan Retail & Wholesale Inventories
Canada 4Q19/Dec GDP,
Industrial + Raw Materials Product Prices, Dec Budget Balance
Brazil Jan Budget Balance/Surplus
Fed's Bullard on the Economy & Monetary Policy (9:15am et--we can't confirm this)
Feb Chicago PMI
U of Michigan
Feb (F) Consumer Sentiment/Expectations (10am et)
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North America Oil/Gas Rig Count (1pm et; w/e 02/21)
    OVERNIGHT into US Sat. a.m. et:
        China Feb Manufacturing/non-Manufacturing/Composite PMI
Saturday, Feb 29
South Korea Feb Trade Balance
South Carolina Democratic Presidential Hopefuls Primary
          WEEKS AHEAD:
  03/04   ECB MPC Meeting + Press Conference
                                    03/17--18    FOMC Meets
                                    03/18--19    BoJ Meets
                                          03/26     BoE MPC Meets

*FOMC 2019 Voting Members:  Chairperson Jerome Powell, as of 02/05/18, and ALL members of the FOMC Board of Governors are permanent voters: That includes Randall Quarles, & Lael Brainard, Richard Clarida, Gov Bowman, (Senate confirmed 09/12/19) plus New York Fed Pres, currently John Williams (Formerly of the San Francisco Fed) who replaced William Dudley, who retired from the bank on June 15, 2018.:New, revolving Regional Fed Bank leaders who are voters for 2018: Atlanta Fed Pres. Raphael Bostic, new in August 2017 (replaced Dennis Lockhart), former McKinsey exec Thomas Barkin, who assumed the title of Pres of Richmond Fed on 01/01/18. San Francisco Fed named Mary Daly Pres/CEO as of 10/1/2018, who'll be a voter until Feb. The hole in the San Francisco Fed's hierarchy resulted in Esther George--a very vocal hawk--becoming a voting member of the FOMC, but she steps aside as of Mary Daly's swearing in, and returns as a voter in Feb 2019. Cleveland Fed's voter, Loretta Mester, a hawk, who wants rates raised at a quicker pace because she believes the Fed has, already, fallen behind the curve.  Richmond wound up with an opening, after Jeff Lacker resigned, in early April 2017, when it became known he'd (unintentionally) leaked sensitive FOMC discussions to Medley Advisors. Richmond operated with an Interim Pres, Mark L Mullinix, while searching for its new leader, Thomas Barkin, who arrived Jan 1st 2018.. Dissenters at the Dec. 2017 Meeting, Neel Kashkari & Charles Evans, are no longer voters in 2018.
               * HICP used in Europe, means Harmonized Index of Consumer Price