wall street in advance

January 2020  Economic Statistics
and Other Economic Influences

                Weekly Chain Store Sales*
                 Average Hourly Earnings*
                 API Weekly Gas/Oil Stockpiles Report*  **
Mortgage Applications  Data
                 EIA Weekly Report on Gas & Oil Stockpiles* (10a.m.)
                 Weekly Unemployment Report*
                  Weekly Mutual Fund Flows*
                   Natural Gas Storage Levels* (a.m.)

 *Except Holidays    ** As of 1/09         All Dates Subject to Change:
Sunday,    Jan 19 Pres. Trump speaks @ 101st Farm Bureau Federation Converntion & IDEAg Trade Show (Austin TX thru 22nd))
    OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m. et:
        Japan Dec Retail Sales
        UK Rightmove Jan House Prices
        Peoples Bk of China Sets 1-, & 5-year Prime Rates, Foreign Direct Investment
        Japan Nov (F) Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization
        German Dec PPI
        Hong Kong Dec Unemployment Rate (protests could make it ugly)
        ECB's Lagarde & Panetta @Eurogroup Meeting (12:00 cet Brussels Belgium)
Monday,   Jan 20 US Martin Luther King Jr Holiday: ALL US Markets & Banks Closed Today
Brazil CAGED Net Payrolls, Federal Tax Revenue
Canada Dec Teranet/National Bank Home Price Index
ECB's Lagarde participates in New Year's reception of the State of Baden-Wurtemberg to the EU (19:30 cet Brussels)
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
        New Zealand Dec Performance of Services, Non-Resident Bond Hldgs
        BoJ MPC Rate Decision + Kuroda Press Conference (01/21 local time)
        Eurozone Jan ZEW Current Situation/Expectations
        ECB's de Guindos speaks @ECOFIN Meeting (Brussels 12:00cet)
        Eurozone investment fund statistics , Bank Lending Survey
        ECB's Bollo debates at 'Financial Services' Working Group of EU Parliament (13:00cet)
         Swiss Dec Trade Balance
         Hong Kong Dec CPI
         Spain Trade Balance
         UK ILO Nov Unemployment Rate/Count/Change/Wkly Earnings, Dec Claims
         Consolidated Financial Statement of Eurosystem (15:00 cet)
         World Economic Forum (Davos-Klosters Suisse thru 24th) Greta Thunberg speaks @8:30, 11:00, & 13:00cet  Pres. Trump speaks @11:30 cet Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon @14:30cet, BAC CEO Moynihan, IBM's Ginni Rometty, CRM's Marc Benioff & musucian YoYo Ma @18:00 cet (01/21 local time)
Tuesday   Jan 21 Canada Nov Manufacturers' Sales
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot
US Treasury Auctions $42B 3-, & $36B 6-month Bills
Pres. Trump's Impeachment Trial Begins @US Senate (1pm et)
     OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
         Aussie Dec Skilled Vacancies, Jan Westpac Consumer Confidence
         Japan Dec Condo Sales
         South Korea Q4 GDP
         UK CBI Jan Reported Sales/Total Distributed Sales, Dec. PSNR ex-Banking Groups, Public Sector Borrowing
         So Africa Dec CPI
         Italy Nov New Industrial Orders/Sales
         ECB releases Quarterly Data on Government Debt/Deficits (10:00 cet)
         UK Dec Retail Sales, CPI
         World Economic Forum speakers: Paul Tufor Jones (9:15cet), Tidjane Thiam, Tom Keene, Kenneht Rogoff  (10:30cet), Jane Goodall & Marc Benioff (10:45cet), Daniel Yergin & H.R.H. Prince Abdulaziz Bin Slman Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud (11:45 cet), Carrie Lam (14:15cet), H.R.H Prince of Wales (14:40cet), Carmen Reinhart (15:15 cet), Al Gore (16:00cet), David M. Rubenstein (17:30cet), Bill Gates (19:00cet---01/22 local time)
Wed.        Jan 22 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applicaitons (7am et; w/e 01/17)
Chicago Fed Dec National Activity Index
Canada Dec CPI, Dec New Housing Price Index, Nov Wholesale Trade
FHFA Nov House Price Index (9am et)
NAR Dec Existing Homes Sales (10am et)
Bk of Canada MPC Interest Rate Decision + Press Conference
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:

        New Zealand Nov Net Migration
        Japan Dec Trade Balance, Nov All Industry Activity Index, Dec (F) Machine Tool Orders
        Aussie Dec Unemployment Rate/Change/Participation/Full-/Part-time
        Singapore Q4 URA Property Index & Dec CPI
        BoJ Senior Loan Officer Survvey
        German Dec Import Price Index
        BoE's Segal-Knowles speaks on "Payments Policy & Regulation in the UK" at  Westminster Business Forum (London)
        ECB MPC Statement on Interest & Deposite Rates (10:00 cet, Frankfurt)
        Russia Dec Industrial Production, Central Bank Fx Reserves
        World Economic Forum speakers: Satya Nadella (10:30cet), Laurence D. Fink (11:30 cet), H.S.H. Prince Albert of monaco (14:45cet), Sara Eisen/Carmen Reinhart (17:00cet)
Thurs.      Jan 23 ECB Chief Largarde Press Conference (14:30 cet Frankfurt)
US weekly Jobless Claims (last week 204k)/Continuing Claims
FRB Boston Study Group on "Long-term Effects of California's Family Leave Act of 2004 on Women's Careers" (Boston MA)
EIA weekly Natural Gas Report  (10:30am et)
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates/Refineries Report (11am et; w/e 01/17)
K.C. Fed Manufacturing Activity Index
US Treasury Auctions $14B 10-year TIPS
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
        New Zealand Q4 CPI, Dec Credit Card Spending, CPI
        Aussie Jan Mnftg/Services/Conmposite PMI   (% fires curtail activity?)
        Japan Jan Mnftg/Services/Composite PMI, Dec CPI
        BoJ  Minutes of Dec 18/19/2019 MPC Meeting (01/24 local time)
        Singapore Dec Industrial Production
        Eurozone, France & Germany Markit Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMI
        ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

        Italy Dec Trade Balance
        German Jan IFO Index
        UK Markit/CIPS Mftg/Services/Composite PMI
        Mexico Nov IGAE Economic Activity
        World Economic Forum speakers: Martin Wolf, ECB's Villeroy de Galhau, Carmen Reinhart (10:30cet), ECB Chief Lagarde & Steve Mnuchin (11:30cet),
Friday,     Jan 24 Chinese Holidays--start leading into New Year 01/28
South Korea New Year Holiday
Canada Nov Retail Sales
US Markit Jan Mnftg/Services/Composite (P) PMI
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig count (1pm; w/e 01/17)
Saturday, Jan 25 China Spring Festival Holiday (most of the week in China, celebrated in Taiwn & Hong Kong, too)
Sunday,    Jan 26 German Dec Retail Sales
Holidays in India & China
    OVERNIGHT into US Mon. a.m .et:
        UK Jan Nationwide House Price Index
        German Jan IFO Biz Assessment/Expectations, GfK Consumer Climate

         Brazil Dec Current Account, FDI, BCB Focus Market Readout
Monday,   Jan 27 US Dec New Home Sales   (10am et)
Dallas Fed Jan Manufacturing Activity  (10:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $45B 3-, & $39B 6-month Bills (11:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $40B 2- & $41B 5-year Notes (1pm et)
ECB's Mersch keynotes 60th anniversary of Luxembourg Ass'n of private investors
Holidays in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia, South Korea
Fed's Wiliams keynotes NY Fed "Pitch Event for Investment Connection Program" for Puerto Rico (NY Fed thru 28th)
    OVERNIGHT into US Tues. a.m. et:
        Japan Corporate Services Price Index
        Aussie NAB Dec Business Survey/Conditions/Outlook
        Swiss Dec Trade Balance-Imports/Exports/Watch Exports (HK protests killing sales)
        Spain Q4 Unemployment Rate/Change
        UK CBI Jan Reported Sales/Total Distributed Reported Sales, Mortgage Approvals
        Russia Dec Unemployment Rate, Retail Sales
        ECB Banking Supervision Press Conference (11:00 cet, Frankfurt Germany)
        ECB's Lane panelist on "Fiscal Rules in Europe: Design & Enforcement @DG ECFIN Workshop (16:00 cet -Brussels, Belgium)
Tuesday,  Jan 28 US Dec Durable & Capital Goods Orders/Shipments
Redbook weekly store sales snapshot
S&P/Case Shiller Nov US 20-city Home Price Index
FOMC 2-day Meeting Starts

Conference Board's Jan Consumer Confidence/Expectations
Richmond Fed Jan Manufacturing & Services Indices
Dallas Jan Fed Survey
US Treasury Auctions $20 2-year FRNS & $26B 52-week Bills (11:30am et)
US Treasury Auctions $32B 7-year Notes (1pm et)
     OVERNIGHT into US Wed. a.m. et:
         BoJ Summary of Opinions
of Dec 20--21/2019 Mtg, Jan Consumer Confidence
         Aussie Q4 CPI
         UK BRC Jan Shop Price Index
         Spain Dec Retail Sales
         Swiss Jan ZEW Climate/Expectations
         Eurozone Dec Loans to non-Financial Corporations
Wed.         Jan 29 MBA weekly Mortgage/Refinance Applications (w/e 01/24/ 7am et)
US Dec (Adv) Trade Balance (8:30am et)
US Dec (P) Wholesale Inventories
US Dec Retail Inventories
NAR Dec Pending Home Sales
(10am et)
EIA weekly Petroleum/Gasoline/Distillates/Refineries Report (10:30am et/ w/e 01/24)
FOMC post-Meeting Statement Released (2pm et)
FOMC Chief Powell Press Conference (2:30pm et)

China Holiday
    OVERNIGHT into US Thurs. a.m. et:
        So. Korea Feb Manufacturing BSI Index
        New Zealand Dec Trade Balance
        UK Lloyds Jan Business Barometer
        Aussie Q4 Import/Export Price Index
        Moody's Rates German Sovereign Debt
BoJ Dpty Gov Amamiya speaks
        German Jan Unemployment Rate/Change
        UK Dec Consumer Credit, Mortgage Approvals
, Dec M4
        Eurozone Dec Unemployment Rate/Change, Jan Business/Consumer Climate
        German Q4 Import/Export Price Index, Jan CPI/HICP
        South Africa Dec Private Sector Credit
        Hong Kong Dec Trade Balance
       Italian Dec Unemployment Rate
        ECB's Enria
keynotes + panelist on "Single Rulebook & Single Supervision reaching maturity" @5th SSM & EBF Boardroom Dialogue (9:00 & 9:30 cet Frankfurt)
        Canada Jan CFIB Business Barometer
        BoE MPC post-Meeting Rate & Asset Purchase Target, Minutes (talk of future rate cuts  12:00 cet)
Thurs,      Jan 30 BoE Gov Carney post-Meeting Press Conference (his last)
US (Adv) Q4 GDP/Business Investment/PCE
   (8:30am et)
US weekly Jobless Claims/Continuing Claims
Federal Reserve Board Open Meeting to review Volcker Rule Changes (9:30am et)
EIA weekly Natural Gas Re;port  (w/e 01/24--10:30am et)
BoC's Beaudry  speaks (Quebec City)
NY Fed Inaugural "Workshop on Economic Inequality: A Policy Series" (3pm NY Fed)
    OVERNIGHT into US Fri. a.m. et:
        So Korea Dec Industrial Production, Service Sector Output, Retail Sales,
        Japan Dec Jobless Rate/Change/Job-to-Applicant Rate, Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Jan Tokyo CPI
        Aussie Dec Private Sector Credit, Housing Credit, Q4 PPI
        China Jan Mnftg/non-Mftf/Composite PMI, Dec Housing Starts, Construction Orders, Nov Vehicle Production, Retail Sales
        Singapore Dec Bank Lending, Q4 Unemplooyment, Business Expectations
        UK GfK Jan Consumer Confidence
        French Q4 (P) GDP, CPI, HICP
        Spain Q4 GDP, Dec CPI, HICP, Nov Current Account
        Swiss Dec Retail Sales
        German Dec Retail Sales
        Italian Q4 (P) GDP
       Eurozone Q4 (P) GDP, Jan CPI, HICP
        OPEC Monthly Crude Oil Production Stats

        India Deposit & Loan Growth, Dec Fiscal Deficit, Annual GDP, Infrastucture Output
        Brazil Dec Unemployment Rate, PPI, Budget Balance
        ECB's Panetta, Schnabel & Mersch participate in ceremony awarding Order of Merit of Federal Republic of Germany to Mario Draghi (12:00 cet Berlin Germany)
        So Africa Dec Trade Balance (incl Gold & Diamond Export)
        BoE Dec Money & Credit Report
Friday,     Jan 31 Canada Nov GDP, Dec IPPI, RMPI
US Dec Personal Income/Spending/PCE
Chicago Jan PMI
U.M. Jan (F) Consumer Sentiment/Inflation Outlook
Canada Nov Budget Balance
Baker-Hughes weekly US/North American Rig Count (w/e 01/24; 1pm et)
Saturday, Feb 01
          WEEKS AHEAD:
 02/06   Fed V.Ch. for Supervision Quarles speaks @NYU Money Marketeers (5:30pm)
                                          02/11    MN Fed's Kashkari Town Hall (Kalispell)
                                          02/17    US Markets Closed for Washington's Birthday--Presidents' Day
                                          02/27    Chicago Fed's Bullard keynotes @GIC Member Event (Mexico City 11:30am et)
                                          03/04     ECB MPC Meeting + Press Conference
                                    03/17--18    FOMC Meets
                                    03/18--19    BoJ Meets
                                          03/26     BoE MPC Meets

*FOMC 2019 Voting Members:  Chairperson Jerome Powell, as of 02/05/18, and ALL members of the FOMC Board of Governors are permanent voters: That includes Randall Quarles, & Lael Brainard, Richard Clarida, Gov Bowman, (Senate confirmed 09/12/19) plus New York Fed Pres, currently John Williams (Formerly of the San Francisco Fed) who replaced William Dudley, who retired from the bank on June 15, 2018.:New, revolving Regional Fed Bank leaders who are voters for 2018: Atlanta Fed Pres. Raphael Bostic, new in August 2017 (replaced Dennis Lockhart), former McKinsey exec Thomas Barkin, who assumed the title of Pres of Richmond Fed on 01/01/18. San Francisco Fed named Mary Daly Pres/CEO as of 10/1/2018, who'll be a voter until Feb. The hole in the San Francisco Fed's hierarchy resulted in Esther George--a very vocal hawk--becoming a voting member of the FOMC, but she steps aside as of Mary Daly's swearing in, and returns as a voter in Feb 2019. Cleveland Fed's voter, Loretta Mester, a hawk, who wants rates raised at a quicker pace because she believes the Fed has, already, fallen behind the curve.  Richmond wound up with an opening, after Jeff Lacker resigned, in early April 2017, when it became known he'd (unintentionally) leaked sensitive FOMC discussions to Medley Advisors. Richmond operated with an Interim Pres, Mark L Mullinix, while searching for its new leader, Thomas Barkin, who arrived Jan 1st 2018.. Dissenters at the Dec. 2017 Meeting, Neel Kashkari & Charles Evans, are no longer voters in 2018.
               * HICP used in Europe, means Harmonized Index of Consumer Price